Fed Funds Rate Leads Money-Market Fund Inflows The chart suggests that Fed funds rate leads money-market fund inflows by two years. Money-market fund inflows stop when risk becomes attractive again. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
S&P 500 Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown Since 1950, the average maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 is -13.5% and the median is -10.6%. You may also like “S&P 500 Index Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs.” Image: LPL…
USA – Explaining 10-Year Yields This great chart suggests that demographics and globalization explain U.S. 10-year yields. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Zombie Companies on the Rise Investor demand for leveraged loans and artificially low interest rates have created zombie firms. Image: Quick Factset
MOVE vs. Treasury Term Premium This chart shows the nice correlation between MOVE (implied volatility of U.S. Treasury markets) and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors…
China A-shares Held by Foreign Investors Despite the opening of the Chinese financial markets, foreign investors hold just 3% of of all China A-shares. Image: The Institute of International Finance
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart shows the nice correlation between ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Dollar to China Yuan (USD/CNY) Leads Semiconductor Sales This chart suggests that the U.S. Dollar to China Yuan (USD/CNY) leads semiconductor sales by four months. Keep a close eye on USD/CNY. Image: Nordea and…
Economic Policy Uncertainty vs. Central Bank Uncertainty Economic policy uncertainty is at record highs, while Central Bank uncertainty is at record lows. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. In Q1 2019, the probability of recession was 2.90%. When this recession indicator exceeds…