Valuation and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates, maybe for a long time. The chart shows that an aging population affects yields. You may also like “Debt…

U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rises to 1.6% in June. Inflation trending back up toward the Fed’s 2% target is good…

U.S. Equities – One Year Return After a Fed Rate Cut The chart shows how U.S. equities have historically performed after a 25 bps and 50 bps Fed rate cut over the last 35 years.…

Gold vs. Real U.S. Rates The chart shows the nice correlation between real U.S. rates (inverted) and the price of gold as a defensive asset. Image: Richardson Wealth

S&P 500 and Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index The chart shows that the S&P 500 and high-yield bonds tend to go up and down together. Keep in mind that historically, the correlation between…

Target Probabilities at the Fed’s July 31 Meeting Today, traders see a 47.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut and a 52.4% probability of a 50-bps rate cut at the Fed’s July 31 meeting. Image: CME…

Growth/Value Stock Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession After first Fed rate cut and no recession within the next 12 months, growth stocks should outperform value stocks. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 Returns After Rate Cuts Near Highs Since 1980, the Fed has cut rates 17 times (S&P 500 within 2% of new highs). One year later, the S&P 500 was still higher. Image: Ryan…

Temperature Changes Around The World This climate stripes graphic shows how average temperatures have risen since 1901. Image: Ed Hawkins/Reading University

Russell 2000 Index/Russell 1000 Index Around First Fed Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession Another great chart suggesting no recession, when large caps outperform small caps, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research

Large-Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart suggests no recession, when growth stocks outperform value stocks, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research