Earnings Growth and the Fed Cycle
Earnings Growth and the Fed Cycle Analysts remain optimistic on 2020. This chart shows the expected earnings growth over the next 12 months. Image: Fidelity Investments
China Real GDP Growth Projection
China Real GDP Growth Projection Real GDP growth in China is expected to continue to decline significantly in the coming years, with consumption becoming the main driver of growth. You may also like “Contribution of…
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Image: Nautilus Research
Median Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months
Median Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months The risk of recession has increased in many countries around the world. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Active vs. Passive Fund Net Flows
U.S. Active vs. Passive Fund Net Flows Active mutual funds exhibit persistent outflows, while inflows into index-tracking U.S. mutual funds and ETFs continue to rise. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS
Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds
Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now.…
Trump Tweets About the Fed
Trump Tweets About the Fed The last trade escalation was also preceded by a flurry tweets from President Trump attacking the Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Produces Highest Sharpe Ratio in Decades
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Produces Highest Sharpe Ratio in Decades Since 1990, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note has produced the largest sharpe ratio. Is it the beginning of the end like past events? Image: Arbor…
Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model
Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model The NY Fed recession probability model could suggest an increase in the percentage of U.S. states with rising unemployment over the next…
Equity Volatility vs. Equity Allocation
Equity Volatility vs. Equity Allocation As equity volatility rises (inverted on the chart), equity allocations come down. You may alos like “The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years.” Picture Source: Deutsche Bank