Cumulative Mutual Fund + ETF Flows by Bull Market Cycle: Bonds vs. Equities Flows Is this the most hated bull market in history? Well, investors continue buying bonds. Image: ICI Mutual & ETF Flow

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury spread (inverted) with…

GDP Weighted Global Central Bank Policy Rate vs. Global PMI This chart suggests that global policy rates are too tight compared to global PMI in contraction mode. Image: Pervalle Global

Largest 1-Day Drops for the S&P 500 per Year Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell by almost 3%. The average largest 1-day drop per year is -4.04% since 1928. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Earnings Expectations Despite the earnings squeeze, the Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the stock market. Image: Bianco Research

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the good correlation between ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and U.S. GDP. Image: Piper Jaffray

America’s Student Debt by State Student loan debt has more than tripled over the last decade to $1.5 trillion. You may also like “Distribution of Student Loan Borrowers by Balance.” Image: howmuch.net

Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World Index The chart shows a pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI World Index. Stocks and PMI tend to move together. Image: Charles Schwab

Global Manufacturing PMI Leads Earnings The chart suggests that Global Manufacturing PMI leads earnings by 9 months. Image: Charles Schwab

ISM Manufacturing Index – Mini-Cycles and Recessions During the economic cycle, the last mini-cycle usually leads to a recession. Image: Charles Schwab

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond