Target Probabilities at the Fed’s July 31 Meeting Today, traders see a 47.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut and a 52.4% probability of a 50-bps rate cut at the Fed’s July 31 meeting. Image: CME…

Growth/Value Stock Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession After first Fed rate cut and no recession within the next 12 months, growth stocks should outperform value stocks. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 Returns After Rate Cuts Near Highs Since 1980, the Fed has cut rates 17 times (S&P 500 within 2% of new highs). One year later, the S&P 500 was still higher. Image: Ryan…

Temperature Changes Around The World This climate stripes graphic shows how average temperatures have risen since 1901. Image: Ed Hawkins/Reading University

Russell 2000 Index/Russell 1000 Index Around First Fed Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession Another great chart suggesting no recession, when large caps outperform small caps, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research

Large-Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart suggests no recession, when growth stocks outperform value stocks, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research

Interest Payments on the U.S. National Debt The chart shows that net interest payments on the U.S. national debt are on the rise again, despite low interest rates. Image: PEW Research Center

FedEx Stock Price Leads World Trade Volume by Three Months This chart suggests that FedEx is usually a good leading indicator of the world economy. You may also like “FedEx vs. World Trade.” Image: Deutsche…

U.S. Corporate Profit Margin and Recession The chart shows a U.S. corporate profit margin proxy. If it declines below 10% in this business cycle (red line), it could suggest a coming recession.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) Leads Global Manufacturing PMI by Three Months This chart suggests that the rally in semiconductor stocks may herald a global growth rebound. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread) The chart shows that the U.S. Dollar REER is about relative growth (U.S. GDP – Other Developed Market GDP YoY). You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (%…