Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $2.6tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option…
U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds Over the past nine months, U.S. stocks have shown remarkable resilience compared to bonds, reflecting a persistent “risk-on” sentiment in markets despite increased volatility and macroeconomic challenges. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession…
Policy Uncertainty Index vs. S&P 500 Index While periods of policy uncertainty can create temporary disruptions, they are often short-lived, with spikes frequently occurring near market lows. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 The VIX rose above 60 during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both cases, the stock market had already bottomed before the VIX dropped below…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators By destabilizing markets and amplifying recession fears, Trump’s tariffs injected systemic risks into global trade, leading to dramatic shifts in investor sentiment and heightened market volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts U.S. GDP growth at just 0.5% in 2025, sharply revised down due to increased financial and policy risks, highlighting concerns about a difficult and uncertain economic outlook…
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Higher inflation and lower corporate profitability structurally undermine the sustainability of U.S. equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Of course bulls want to make a deal with bears—they think every dip is a clearance sale and every market crash is just a friendly game of “who can hold…
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at the December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026 meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a…
Indexed S&P 500 Return – Market Hours vs. Overnight Overnight trading sessions account for almost all of the S&P 500’s recent downturn, overshadowing activity during normal U.S. trading hours. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation