Forward Performance Following First Fed Funds Rate Cuts After first Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 performance is quite attractive on average when no recession. You may also like “Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First…
Global Growth Economy This chart shows the global real GDP growth and the long-term growth momentum. It’s never paid to bet against America. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Civilian Labor Force Growth vs. Inflation since 1962 This chart suggests that civilian labor force growth leads CPI by four years. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 vs. Cumulative Fund Flows “History never repeats itself but it rhymes” said Mark Twain. This chart shows the same trend as for the 2016 period. Image: Topdown Charts
Exports as a Share of GDP Interesting chart showing exports as a percentage of GDP and putting U.S. tariffs into perspective. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Total Private Employment Another interesting chart showing that the U.S. job market is still strong for the time being, although it is slowing. The U.S. services jobs (blue lines) appear to be in fairly…
105 Consecutive Months of Job Growth It is the 105th consecutive month of job growth. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, but is still at historically low levels. Even if there are signs that…
Manufacturing Payrolls vs. ISM PMI Manufacturing payrolls are usually quite volatile, but this interesting chart could suggest a rebound in the ISM PMI. Let’s wait for confirmation in the second half of the year. Image:…
Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Image: Reuters
The Market Has Correctly Called Each Fed Rate Decision since 2010 And since 1994, seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time. You may also like “The Fed…
U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession. The job market is still strong, even if there are signs…