Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt Currently, China and Japan hold the most U.S. debt. Image: howmuch.net

S&P 500 Low Volatility Stocks Are the Best Performing Asset YTD This chart shows that S&P 500 low volatility stocks are the best performing asset year-to-date (outside of GSCI energy). Actually, high-quality stocks are a good…

History of the Real Federal Minimum Wage Today, the real federal minimum wage is worth 31% less than in 1968. It is also the longest period without an increase (adjusted for inflation). You may also…

U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield)…

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason

Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S.…

“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread This interesting chart shows the Google trends interest for the “yield curve” compared to the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread. If history helps us predict…

What Happens When the S&P 500 is Up 15% at Mid-Year? History tells us that the rest of the year is generally quite good. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles The S&P 500 did rather well after easing cycles began, especially during Fed insurance cuts. You may also like “Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts.” Image:…

Concern about the Trade War 58% of American firms reported negative impacts from the trade war, versus 31% of non-American firms. Ouch! Image: American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore

S&P 500 and Recession Probability Great chart showing twelve Fed easing cycles since the 1950s, including the recession probability and the average return of the S&P 500 Index. Image: Fidelity Investments