ANZ Global Lead Index The ANZ Global Lead Index is a leading indicator on global industrial production. The chart shows that growth momentum peaked in 2018. Currently, global growth is actually starting to moderate seriously. Image:…

Industrial Search Trends Looking Optimistic This chart shows the rise in search interest in the U.S.. That’s good news after a fall in 2018, because industrial search trends tend to lead realized growth by a…

Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run Over the long run, equities move with earnings. Currently, there is a big gap between U.S. and Europe earnings. As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a…

S&P 500 Index Price Average Before and After Initial Fed Rate Cut Historically, the S&P 500 Index has risen in 13 out of 16 cases after an initial Fed rate cut (since 1954). The divergence…

Fed Funds Rate vs. S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Fed funds rate leads the S&P 500 by 1 to 3 years since the 1990s. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

World PMI Manufacturing Most regions are now in contraction territory, except the United States. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

The Market Consistently Underestimates the Fed Usually, the Fed decides when to raise rates and the market decides when to cut rates. But, this interesting chart shows that the market consistently underestimates the Fed. You…

Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions This chart shows that the economic impact of most U.S. recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by +24% vs. S&P 500 +117%, and the average recession reduced…

Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections Americans tend to elect Democrats when unemployment is high, and Republicans when unemployment is low. Image: Ken Fisher

S&P 500 Performance Before and After Recessions since 1970 U.S. equities peaked about six months before the recession began. Image: Russell Investments

Correlation Between S&P 500 and U.S. Treasuries This chart shows the correlation between stocks and bonds, which could affect a balanced 60/40 portfolio. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC