Who Owns the Equity Market? Most of the equity market is owned by households and mutual funds. But ETFs and foreigners continue to gain share. Image: Bianco Research

U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate vs. Russell 2000 Index Could this interesting correlation persist over time? Image: Hayek and Keynes

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads…

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Seasonality Effect in the Bond Market This interesting chart shows the seasonality of 30-year Treasury bond. Image: Commodity Seasonality

Commodities to S&P 500 Ratio This great chart shows that the ratio is currently at a 50 year low and far below the long-term average. Image: Crescat Capital LLC

Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign…

US GDP Growth – Realized Volatility This chart shows that realized volatility of US GDP growth is very low today. It’s also good for the volatility of financial markets. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index”…

Probability of a Fed Cut in 2019 The market is pricing 87% probability of a Fed cut in September 2019.

Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth