Global Real M1 Growth Leads Global Manufacturing PMI by around 6 Months When global real M1 money supply growth is very low, it does not bode well for global economic activity. Image: The Wall Street…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Produces Extremely High Sharpe Ratio During Shifts to Easing This chart shows the high sharpe ratio of U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note during easing policy shifts. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts This chart shows the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury Note response to Fed insurance cuts vs. Fed recession cuts. There is a big difference for…
Fed Monetary Policy Rate Change over 6 Months Prices in (Futures) vs. Actual Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates, but the market decides when to cut rates. This chart shows that rate expectations…
$11 Trillion Bonds Globally Trade At Negative Interest Rates The total amount of negative interest rates climbed to USD 11 trillion. Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing…
S&P 500 Performance Around Previous Fed Cuts This spreadsheet shows that the S&P 500 has performed well on average, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Barclays Research
Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve Keep in mind that the Fed has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. And currently, the 30-year Treasury rate minus 10-year Treasury rate spread…
We Are Still in a Secular Bull Market According to Fundstrat This great chart shows that we are still in a secular bull market. 2019 could be a transition year to a 4-year cycle high.…
U.S. Leveraged Loan Index Rating Breakdown: 2008 vs. 2019 Since 2008, this chart shows that U.S. leveraged loans are getting lower ratings. Any drop in the credit ratings could also amplify the next recession. Image:…
Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World Global ex-US manufacturing PMI is below 50 (contraction). We will see if the United States can go it alone in the coming months. You may…
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research