The Secular Trend for U.S. Interest Rates This nice chart shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield against the natural rate (nominal R-Star) and monetary velocity. In a sense, it explains the secular trend for U.S.…
U.S. Industrial Production YoY by Segment since 2013 Another excellent chart showing the U.S. industrial production by segment. Image: Pervalle Global
Just a Normal Day… “Just a normal day at the nation’s most important financial institution…” Image: Kevin “Kal” Kallaugher
MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Image: Financial Times
10-Year German Bund Yield and German Manufacturing PMI The 10-year German Bund yield could go positive again as recession fears dissipate. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
European Equities Lead Bund Yields by 6 Months Because European equities tend to lead bund yields by 6 months, bund yields should turn higher. Image: Reuters
Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield This chart shows the correlation between gold and 2-year treasury yield (inverse). Gold rises on slowing global growth and short-term treasury yield inverse. Image: Jeroen Blokland
CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019…
Initial Fed Rate Cuts and Resulting Forward Market Returns This spreadsheet also shows that the S&P 500 has performed well on average, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Eurozone Inflation and Brent Oil Prices This interesting chart shows the direct effect of brent oil prices (YoY % change) on euro area inflation. Image: Jeroen Blokland