Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads…
China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Seasonality Effect in the Bond Market This interesting chart shows the seasonality of 30-year Treasury bond. Image: Commodity Seasonality
Commodities to S&P 500 Ratio This great chart shows that the ratio is currently at a 50 year low and far below the long-term average. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign…
Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index”…
Probability of a Fed Cut in 2019 The market is pricing 87% probability of a Fed cut in September 2019.
Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth
American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.”…
2019 Is Tracking Similar to Prior Waterfall Declines Where PMI was above 50 at end of 19% decline in 60 days. So, it suggests 3,100 for the S&P 500 by year end. Image: Fundstrat
S&P 500 Up at Least +4.5% from Monday Close through Friday Close Last week, the S&P500 was up at least +4.5% from Monday’s close through Friday’s close. History shows it is not bullish. Image: OddStats