U.S. Stock Market Annualized Returns since 1872 You may notice as the timeframes get longer, the frequency of losses rapidly decreases. During 1872 to 2018, there were no 20-year rolling periods with stock market losses.…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1896 If you listen to the news, there is always a good reason not to be invested in the stock market. You may also like “The Stock Market Continues…
What Happens If the S&P 500 Index Is Green the First Four Months since 1950? Well, if history helps us to predict the future, the rest of year is higher 14 out of 15 times. The…
Commodity Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1937 The chart shows that commodity stock prices have never been more depressed relative to the stock market. This Commodity Stock Index aligns with S&P North…
The Gold to Oil Ratio since 2018 When the gold to oil ratio approaches 30x, oil is undervalued. When the gold to oil ratio approaches 10x, gold is undervalued. Today, the gold-oil ratio is below…
VIX & Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This chart also shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most interesting…
10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of…
Treasury Options and Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This great chart shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most…
“In this World Nothing Can Be Said to Be Certain, Except Death and Taxes.” ― Benjamin Franklin Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Global High Yield Bond Spreads Since 2017 High yield bond spreads have widened recently (difference in yields between high yield bonds and comparative government bonds). Image: BlackRock
Do Central Banks’ Negative Rates Work in Europe? Not really. Actually, negative rates distort economies and leave little room to maneuver in the next recession. Secondly, extremely low interest rates are also bad for European…