The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk…
Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator? When the percentage of Small Businesses Planning to Hire, falls from a high level to less than 10%, then the risk of a recession…
Stock Buybacks Topped Capital Expenditures for the First Time since 2008 Thanks to corporate tax cuts, stock buybacks hit an all-time high and topped capital expenditures for the first time since 2008. As a reminder,…
Is Bitcoin on Fire Again? Bitcoin +102% YTD vs. S&P 500 YTD performance of 12.98%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Worst Day of the Year for S&P 500 since 1950 The average worst day of the year for S&P 500 is 3.5% since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the…
Proportion of U.S. Junk Bonds Maturing Within Four Years A third of the $1.2 trillion U.S. junk bonds matures in the next four years. This proportion is highest in decades. Image: Bloomberg
National Debt of the United States from 1934 to 2019 $22 trillion national debt number is huge. As a comparison, that’s more than the GDP of New Zealand, Singapore and Norway combined. Image: howmuch.net
Does the Sharing Economy Really Know How to Share? As Michael A. Gayed pointed out, “Amazing how companies that enable the “sharing economy” make no profit, isn’t it?” The question to ask, does the sharing…
After Yield-Curve Inversions, Bond Yields Show No Really Clear Pattern A yield curve inversion is a necessary condition for a recession, but after yield-curve inversions, bond yields show no really clear pattern. Image: MSCI
Concentration of Stock Ownership by Wealth Bracket As the chart shows, the top 20% wealthiest American households own over 93% of stocks. You may also like “How the Composition of Wealth Changes from the Middle…