Why a Low or Negative Equity Risk Premium Coincides with a Temporary Market Peak? Because it pushes investors into bonds rather than equities. This was the case in 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007 and 2018 before…
Real GDP Increased Moderately Compared to Previous Business Cycles Even if we are currently in a late cycle, history helps us to predict the future and this cycle should not end immediately. Each line begins…
Real Fed Funds Rate Is Very Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles Today, Real Fed funds rate is very low compared to previous business cycles and well below real GDP. If history helps us to…
Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession? When the stock market is VERY overvalued before a recession, it tends to be VERY undervalued. Like the swing of a pendulum, or the stretching of…
Why the US Stock Market Was Overvalued by 14.2% on Oct. 1, 2018 vs. 7.7% Today? Because the value of the forecast changes over time (blue dotted line). The US stock market short-term forecast (S&P 500…
Greek’s 5-Year Bond Yields Have Fallen Below US 5-Year Government Bond Yield Which one would you choose? Greek bonds or US counterparts? This is a great example of financial market madness. Mark Twain once said,…
How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of…
Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible…
What our Short-Term Forecast of the US Stock Market Has Been for the Past 12 Months? Here is what our short-term forecast of the US stock market has been for the past 12 months. This…
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global…
“The Individual Investor Should Act Consistently as an Investor…” – Ben Graham Quote of the day: “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” –Ben Graham