Is Inflation Dead?
Is Inflation Dead? Is this cover of Bloomberg Businessweek a contrarian indicator? Remember that dinosaurs evolved into birds over 50 million years. Do you think we will have to wait 50 million years for inflation to…
The Value vs. Growth Differential Has Never Been So Extreme
The Value vs. Growth Differential Has Never Been So Extreme The Value vs. Growth differential has never been so extreme, even during the Great Depression and the Dotcom bubble. Chasing growth usually ends badly! Image:…
Over The Last 6 Months, The S&P 500 Lags Bonds, Gold And Global Stocks
Over The Last 6 Months, The S&P 500 Lags Bonds, Gold And Global Stocks Last year, the sell-off of stocks was a correction from a bad equity risk premium and an overvalued stock market, as…
The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term
The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term This is usually due to emotional biases, herding effect, lack of diversification, panic selling,… Most investors buy high and sell low at the…
Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%…
Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%… Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14% before the market crash, through our advanced stock market valuation model. Near…
Why Warren Buffett Says That Stocks Are Generally Better Than Bonds?
Why Warren Buffett says that stocks are generally better than bonds? Our equity risk premium model shows when the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the…
Leveraged loans pose risks as corporate debt increases
Leveraged loans pose risks as corporate debt increases A leveraged loan is debt issued by a company that has below investment grade credit ratings and a considerable amount of debt with high interest rates. In…
Financial Crisis Survival Lessons: Beats Market & Peers Since Bottom (Ariel Fund)
Financial Crisis Survival Lessons: Beats Market & Peers Since Bottom (Ariel Fund) Charles Bobrinskoy at Ariel Investments, has a patient and long-term value approach. He says: “the best time to buy is when people are…
Cumulative Net Flows into Passive and Active Equity Funds since 2005
Cumulative Net Flows into Passive and Active Equity Funds since 2005 Here is the cumulative net flows into passive and active equity funds from 2005 to 2019. Passive is indexes & ETFs. Until active equity…
“Price is what you pay…” – Warren Buffett
“Price is what you pay…” – Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” –Warren Buffett
Real Three-month Yield vs. Recessions
Real Three-month Yield vs. Recessions Historically prior to every recession, the three-month yield exceeded inflation by almost 200 basis points since 1960. Today, the real three-month yield (adjusted for inflation) is just above zero. If…