Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E So far this year, rising real yields have forced the S&P 500’s multiple lower, a classic setup where higher discount rates squeeze P/Es without necessarily triggering…
U.S. Composite PMI U.S. business activity surged in September to its fastest pace since July 2021. But, the expansion also intensified inflation risks. Image: Bloomberg
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns October has been kind to the S&P 500 so far. After a strong first half, stocks may have more room to climb: historically, the second half of October tends to…
S&P 500 Performance When Up YTD Between 10-20% at the End of September When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD by late September, Q4 tends to be bullish, with an 86% success…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…
Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 P/E Prices have lagged the earnings boom, pulling near-term valuations below their trend-earnings multiples. The US market, for now, shows no…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has climbed and is approaching stretched territory as investors pile into higher‑risk trades. Riding the upside can pay off, until the crowd is…
Sector Fund Flows Over the past year, money has piled into tech funds as AI hype, chip outperformance and rising profit forecasts reinforced the bull case. Is the trend running out of steam? Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Year three of the presidential cycle is Wall Street’s historically strongest period. With that phase just around the corner, the S&P 500 looks positioned for a solid 2027, enough to keep…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment indicators are stuck in neutral, with bullish conviction matching bearish caution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core CPI Forecast Goldman Sachs expects hotter U.S. core CPI than markets in September and October, but cooler readings in November and December, meaning markets underprice near-term inflation risk while overpricing its persistence later.…