U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History With the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 trading at 24 times forward earnings and the S&P 500 at 20, the market’s appetite for growth hasn’t faded. Image: Goldman…

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is at -0.9, a level that generally points to muted S&P 500 gains over the following month. That’s not the kind of reading that…

When Do You Expect a Ceasefire to Be Reached Between the U.S. and Iran? Investors are largely treating the Middle East conflict as a temporary shock, with most expecting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end…

Fed Funds Rate Markets are now pricing in a meaningful chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, something that looked very unlikely at the start of the year. Image: MarketDesk Research

S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Confident in the earnings outlook, Goldman Sachs is sticking to its bullish view, expecting the S&P 500 to climb 12% to 7,600 this year, even as some bumps on…

U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The unemployment rate moving above its three-year average has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950. The latest crossover came in June 2024. Since then, no recession has followed, raising questions…

S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits History favors the bulls. Every time the S&P 500 has dropped more than 15% in a year and then roared back…

Average S&P 500 Performance After Oil Shocks On average, U.S. equities have tended to be under pressure in the months following major oil shocks, though the pattern is not uniform and depends heavily on whether…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 17.8%, keeping the outlook skewed toward ongoing expansion. The cycle isn’t…

Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest…

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets Americans are all-in on equities like never before. That speaks to booming wealth and bullish sentiment, but it also leaves portfolios…