S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started Born in October 2022, this bull market is now four years old. Bulls are smiling: over the past 50 years, every bull market to…

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -1.3. Historically, similar readings have been followed by an average 2.0% gain for the S&P 500 over the next month. Image:…

S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern The equal-weighted S&P 500 has followed the seasonal script closely, rebounding from its lows almost in step with the S&P 500’s typical pattern. Seasonality is now a tailwind for…

Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 After rebounding from the bottom of its long-term trend channel, the relative performance of MCG & Tech has approached levels that have…

MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Tech earnings are expected to surge in the third quarter, but even that may not be enough to lift the sector in the near term. Earnings expectations…

Investor Psychology Cycle Panic can push markets too far, too fast, creating opportunities for contrarians willing to buy when fear peaks. Euphoria is the other side of the trade, and often signals that it’s time…

S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Age alone is no reason to call time on a bull market. Bull markets that reach year four have more often than not delivered another strong year, averaging…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.61% YoY in September. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have raised their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, with resilient profits lifting market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections The S&P 500 rose in 21 of the past 23 midterm cycles, from one month before Election Day through two months after. That window opens this week, with Election…

Semiconductors: Earnings Growth vs. Prices AI demand remained robust in Q3, with several indicators pointing to more upside. Deutsche Bank expects the tailwind to boost earnings across mega-cap growth and technology stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank…