Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Goldman’s Momentum Factor has jumped over 25% in the past three months. Moves like this are rare, only 11 since 1980. The historical playbook points to…
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P…
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard
GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and…
2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The…
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years Under President Trump, the S&P 500 has often seen early-year weakness, with lows clustering in late March. If the pattern repeats, 2026 could keep climbing, despite a new Fed…
Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Positioning in equities continues to lag S&P 500 earnings growth, leaving scope for the rally to run if revisions hold up and macro risks remain contained. That dynamic could pull…
Retail Share of Trading Volumes in Select U.S. Equity Index ETF Since 2021 Retail traders are piling into leveraged U.S. equity index ETFs, hardly a surprise given their long-standing appetite for leverage. The trade looks…
Cumulative Change in Consensus 2026 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure stocks have seen 2026 earnings estimates jump 55% since December 2024, versus just 7% for the broader S&P 500. Strip them out and earnings fall 1%.…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 64th percentile, while discretionary investor positioning is at the 58th percentile, pointing to positioning that is not yet crowded and can still expand. Image: Deutsche…