Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ The AI trade is following the classic Momentum rally pattern, but with volatility at levels rarely seen outside recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 S&P 500 seasonality shows August is rarely a sweet spot for stocks, as volatility tends to pick up and returns often lag. Image: Real Investment Advice

Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield U.S. equities are trading at stretched valuation percentiles on the Shiller P/E, while the 10‑year Treasury yield sits close to its long‑term average. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of August has often been a drag on the S&P 500, ranking as the fifth-weakest half‑month of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

SpaceX and Median of 20 Largest IPOs on Nasdaq Wall Street’s old joke that IPO stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced” feels a little less funny now, but not entirely wrong. SpaceX is lagging most other…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

Real U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Y/Y Growth In recent quarters, U.S. consumers have continued to reallocate spending toward experience‑driven categories like travel, dining and recreation, even as overall services spending growth has cooled. Image: Goldman…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM Exposure Index at 79.70 shows that active managers are still risk-on, with robust U.S. equity exposure and a bullish outlook. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index…

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) Relative to Cap-Weight S&P 500 (SPY) As megacap leadership fades, market breadth is improving. This isn’t an outflow from equities. It’s just a rotation out of concentration. Image: Real Investment Advice

The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections History has been kind to investors after midterms. In all 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher nine…

S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years often bring a bump in S&P 500 volatility, as investors wait to see who controls Congress and what that means…