Hyperscaler Capex by Company U.S. hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $740 billion this year and nearly $1 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it no longer looks cyclical. It looks like a structural…

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have trimmed their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, but expectations still look elevated as confidence in the full-year picture holds up. Image:…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -0.22% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint…

S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors have to live through a 14% drawdown each year, but the S&P 500 has still ended higher in 35 of the past 46 years.…

Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank

Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than…

S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years After a weak first quarter, the S&P 500 is tracking the familiar Trump-era playbook, with a rally still very much in play for the rest of the year. For…

Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is at one of its most accommodative levels in years, a friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank

The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections The post-midterm playbook has been remarkably consistent. Across the past 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 was higher nine months…

Healthcare Positioning At just the 32nd percentile, healthcare positioning still looks underweight, leaving investors room to build positions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation