VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Gold has jumped beyond $4,000, but investors in the largest gold miners ETF are heading for the exits, wary of chasing the highs. Contrarians, meanwhile, smell opportunity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Forecast Wall Street’s top strategists are unusually in sync, calling for the S&P 500 to extend its run in 2026 amid solid earnings, a supportive rate backdrop, and steady AI-fueled…
7-10 Year Government Bonds, Total Return in US$ Since the tech war began, Chinese government bonds have outperformed their U.S., German and Japanese counterparts, delivering higher total returns in recent years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Valuation – S&P 500 Index – BEst P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s P/E stands one standard deviation above its five-year average, flashing a mild overvaluation warning. But markets can stay pricey for a while, so…
Three-Year Total Returns of MSCI World Sector Indexes Tech and Communication Services sectors have dominated global equity returns in recent years, lifted by a surge in AI-driven innovation across hardware, software, and digital infrastructure. Image:…
Percentage of U.S. Large-Cap Equity Mutual Funds Beating the S&P 500 In 2025, only a small minority of large‑cap active equity funds kept pace with the S&P 500. Managers who underweighted the “Magnificent Seven” were…
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders aren’t betting heavily on a Fed rate cut at the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in just an 18.8% chance…
Percentage of Time 60/40 Returns Were Positive or Outperformed Cash While cash remains an important component of financial stability, excessive cash holdings can hinder long-term wealth growth due to opportunity costs and inflation erosion. Image:…
Annual Real S&P 500 Index and 3-Year Average Annual Return The S&P 500’s three‑year return is running 18% above its 3-year average. That’s not a record, but history says big deviations like this have often come…
S&P 500 Returns After Eight Month Win Streaks An eighth straight winning month in sight? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has done that only ten times, and almost never lost steam afterward. Nine out of…
World Technology Earnings Since 2010, the technology sector has consistently outpaced the broader market, driven by booming profits, the dominance of U.S. tech giants, and steady productivity gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research