Equity Positioning and S&P 500 EPS Growth Equity positioning is bracing for a sharp earnings slowdown, but recent data are undermining that story. If the gloom fades, risk appetite may rebound fast and lift stocks.…
Volatility – VIX Index The VIX dropping below 20 signals fading market jitters and a steadier tone, typically a tailwind for equities as calmer volatility expectations often accompany rising stock prices. Lower volatility tends to…
S&P 500 Performance After 6-Day Win Streaks and Up 6% Six days up in a row and a 6% surge: history says that combo often bodes well for U.S. stocks, with median 12-month gains of…
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns History shows that when consumer confidence sinks, stocks often rebound, turning gloom into a launchpad for gains. It’s the familiar rhythm of fear giving way to…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank is turning more bullish on corporate America. Backed by a supportive macro backdrop, it sees S&P 500 earnings growth coming in strong at 19.2% for Q1, comfortably ahead…
Valuations – Software vs. World ex. TMT and Technology vs. World TMT Valuations in global tech and software have narrowed sharply, with forward P/Es at their lowest level relative to world equities in more than…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures suggests the S&P 500 is running hot, raising the odds of a short-term pullback after a stretch where good news has largely been priced in.…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
U.S. Tech – 3-Month Change in Price vs. 3-Month Change in FY2 EPS Until recently, U.S. tech earnings and stock returns have run hand in hand. With the correlation breaking down, dips are looking more…
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil climbs, inflation usually follows, lifting energy and transport costs that spread through the economy. The result often weighs on stocks, as tighter profit margins and softer consumer spending…
1000 Point Advances for the Dow Jones Industrial Average The Dow posted its 25th intraday gain of more than 1,000 points yesterday, with 23 coming during Trump’s presidency. Everyone wants to catch the big move,…