Software Stocks (IGV) and Forward P/E The recent weakness in software stocks reflects a valuation de-rating rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Retail investors have been adding exposure on dips, even as institutional money stays cautious. Image:…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 17%, slightly higher than…
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows Industrial funds have seen a surge in inflows over the past year, outpacing every other sector and showing no sign of losing momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Equities Performance Since spring 2025, the stock rally has gone global, with Europe and Asia powering ahead while U.S. equities lag behind. Broad participation like this often keeps bull markets running longer than most…
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, the S&P 500 has finished a calendar year more than 10% lower only 12 times. Such drops are rare, but they’re part of the cost of staying in…
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are testing the bottom of their decade-long channel versus the rest of the S&P 500, a level that…
Volatility – VIX vs. VIXEQ Single-stock volatility is rising faster than the VIX as leadership rotates from tech toward energy names and companies tied to real assets. Volatility beneath the surface says more about market…
Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly fell in January to 389K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall…
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Yearly Returns The lesson from the “10 best days” rule is blunt: market timing rarely shows mercy. Miss those standout days in the S&P 500 each year and, instead of gains, your portfolio…