MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations are stretched across sectors and styles, leaving investors with almost no room for error. That is what makes this market so tricky. If sentiment turns, there is not much to…
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity fund managers are cautiously stepping back into risk as the earnings outlook brightens. Sentiment is improving on growing confidence in corporate profits, alongside…
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 What started as a geopolitical bounce has morphed into an earnings-driven rally. The move has been fast, but not stretched. Positioning appears to be playing catch-up with…
Hyperscaler Year/Year Cash Spending Growth Hyperscalers are ramping up AI spending, leaving less capacity for buybacks and dividends. The trade-off is weaker near-term payouts in exchange for longer-term upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscaler capex is on track for $755 billion this year, rising to $892 billion by 2027. At that scale, this looks less like a typical tech cycle and more like something structurally bigger.…
YoY Growth in S&P 500 Cash Use S&P 500 companies are shifting cash to capex, led by AI, while buybacks stall. The result may be weaker EPS support and a thinner cushion for stock prices.…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -1.68% YoY in April. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair 10-year U.S. Treasury yields often push higher in the first six months after a new Fed chair takes office, as markets adjust to a new policy regime.…
Risk Appetite Indicator Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator is still climbing and now looks stretched, with early signs of overheating as investors crowd into riskier assets chasing further gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Six Week Wins Streaks Up >10% Six weeks up and more than 10% higher. Historically, that combination has been a tailwind for U.S. stocks, delivering average 12-month returns of 17.1% since…
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 typically rallies, posting a median gain of 2% over the first four weeks. This time, the index is up nearly four times that…