S&P 500 Peak-To-Trough Decline After Major Issuance Booms Major U.S. equity issuance booms tend to follow late-cycle optimism. On its own, that is more a caution flag than a sell signal. It carries more weight…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) Valuations in U.S. equities remain extended, with most metrics running over two standard deviations above history. “Cheap” is largely a thing of the past, but stretched markets can…
S&P 500 Index and Trend Channels What we are seeing in U.S. stocks looks more like consolidation than the start of a lasting downturn, with investors digesting recent gains and adjusting their outlook. Image: J.P.…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a steady growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of about…
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns The S&P 500 typically posts a 5% to 10% pullback at least once a year. With March already delivering a double-digit decline, the next dip may be more contained.…
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 Infrastructure has driven the AI rally, with chip giants, data center builders and cloud platforms capturing the upside while software and productivity names fall behind. Image:…
Global Share Buyback Announcements Global share buybacks show no signs of slowing, as steady earnings keep the pipeline full. For shareholders, that’s a supportive backdrop, and unless profits falter, the momentum looks durable. Image: J.P.…
Capex as % of Cash Flow from Operations All signs point to hyperscalers reinvesting nearly all operating cash flow into capex, a tailwind for infrastructure suppliers but a potential headwind for equity returns if free…
U.S. Tech Media Telecom Valuations vs. ROE Investors are still willing to pay a premium for U.S. tech, media, and telecom stocks, and with robust returns on equity, those valuations look broadly justified. Image: Goldman…
Energy Group Positioning Energy sits in the 91st percentile on positioning, firmly in overweight territory. With strong earnings momentum largely priced in, the sector looks exposed if oil prices soften. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index vs. Insider Sells Insider selling usually rises with the market, as higher prices prompt executives to lock in gains. Lately, though, selling has cooled even as equities climb, pointing to a reduced…