Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S.…

S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too…

S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks still look pricey, but earnings are growing fast enough to justify the bill. As long as profits keep surprising, the extra valuation is…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers has taken a sharp hit in September, as the conflict in the Middle East fuels concerns about its…

CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have steadily increased their equity exposure in recent months. But with positioning now at the 89th percentile, the trade is starting to look crowded. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to remain resilient through 2027 and 2028, with the Fed delivering 75bps of tightening through hikes in September, December, and next March. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks like the market’s cheap bet, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples leave little room for disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil…

S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation