U.S. Core CPI Forecast Goldman Sachs expects hotter U.S. core CPI than markets in September and October, but cooler readings in November and December, meaning markets underprice near-term inflation risk while overpricing its persistence later.…
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has mostly been an infrastructure trade, lifting chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms while software and productivity names sit on the sidelines. Image:…
Global Share Buyback vs. Tech Sector Share in U.S. Buybacks Tech’s share of U.S. buybacks has climbed over the past decade, but the trend may begin to reverse, as AI spending diverts cash away from…
S&P 500 – Aggregate Net Profit Margin, 1999-2026, Against Its Long-Run Average S&P 500 margins have moved up and stayed up, sitting around 60% above the long-term average. The question isn’t if that’s lofty, but…
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates continue to surprise to the upside. Hyperscaler spending is now set to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027, pointing to a trajectory that looks more like a new era than…
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equities look expensive by almost any historical measure, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their long-term averages. But if momentum holds, the rally…
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections U.S. stocks often stall before midterm elections, with volatility picking up, but returns tend to strengthen after the vote as policy uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs This year, U.S. ISM PMIs have picked up sharply, finally catching the earlier surge in earnings-revisions momentum. The cyclical upturn is now underway. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings growth has surged far beyond what U.S. GDP growth would historically justify, sparking debate over whether this is a temporary overshoot or the start…
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) Over the past decade, U.S. stocks have crushed bonds by a margin not seen since the 1920s and 1950s. But with yields rising,…