S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 43rd percentile, positioning reflects a market that has eased slightly below neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, well away from both extreme optimism or panic. Image: Deutsche Bank…
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation Higher oil prices often drive up U.S. inflation by raising energy and transportation costs, which ripple through the economy. This can temporarily pressure stock prices via squeezed corporate profits and…
Weight of Top 10 Holdings in Each Country’s ETF The dominance of the top 10 U.S. stocks has raised alarms about market concentration, but a look across other major economies shows the U.S. isn’t as…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors earn little extra for taking on stock risk over safer bonds, leaving equities a tougher call and prone…
Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets…
U.S. vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward Earnings Per Share U.S. corporate earnings have led the pack in recent years, but overseas profits are finally closing the gap. That momentum shift could mark an…
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with…
Distributions od Returns of World Tech vs. World ex. TMT The tech sector is undergoing a valuation reset this year, following years of outsized gains driven by AI hype and momentum investing. Over the last…