Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Brent Crude Oil Price in Real Terms The longer the oil shock drags on, the greater the risk it spills into the broader economy. For now, traders are betting this surge won’t last, expecting that…

Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The conflict in the Middle East is set to drag U.S. growth well below trend, with the economy losing steam in the second half as fiscal tailwinds fade…

U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years usually make U.S. stocks more volatile, with policy uncertainty running high before voters head to the polls. Investors hate uncertainty, and election years bring plenty of it.…

Discretionary Investor Positioning With exposure sitting at the 19th percentile, discretionary investors remain notably cautious. Any shift in sentiment could open the door to further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have tactically reduced their equity exposure recently to the 43rd percentile, though their positioning stays firmly on the long side. The move shows they’re cautiously optimistic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets…

Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials remains exceptionally light, sitting in just the 2nd percentile, leaving plenty of room to add exposure. That caution looks overdone given the fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather…

S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt rolling over from the danger zone isn’t exactly the kind of move bulls want to see. It’s a red flag for the market and definitely…