Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The S&P 500 equal-weight index trades at 16 times forward earnings, versus 20 times for the benchmark. It is hardly cheap, but the discount makes it look more attractive.…

S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks While the pace of new S&P 500 buyback announcements has cooled in the past few weeks, overall buyback activity in corporate America remains firm, providing steady support for stocks. Image:…

Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets Government bonds continue to draw strong investor demand, offering relatively attractive yields while interest rates stay high. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons The S&P 500 typically rises during the first four weeks of earnings season, loses steam in the weeks that follow, and regains momentum as the next reporting cycle approaches.…

Equity Net Long Positioning – Asset Managers Net Future Positions Asset managers are piling into S&P 500 futures longs, pushing net exposure to elevated levels. The bet is straightforward: more upside. The risk? Any reversal…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 13%, market-implied recession odds for the next year are below the long-term average, pointing to a…

S&P 500 Seasonal Composite Midterm Election Year The S&P 500 Seasonal Composite still points to more upside for 2026, but the path could get choppy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically…

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ US Equity Sentiment Indicator stands at 1.1. Similar readings have historically been followed by an average 1.2% gain in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman…

S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Corporate guidance points to another upcoming quarter of robust earnings growth for the S&P 500, driven largely by continued strength in tech. But a pullback in AI…

Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Wall Street keeps underestimating the scale of hyperscalers’ AI spending. What looked like a temporary surge is turning into a multiyear race for data centers, chips, networking capacity and power.…

3-Month Peak to Trough Decline in Hedge Fund Gross Leverage Hedge funds cut exposure aggressively in July, triggering one of the sharpest de-grossing episodes of the past decade and a steep selloff in their most…