Distribution of 1-Year S&P 500 Returns in Non-Recession Years Double‑digit losses are a rarity outside recessions, just 5% of the time. But when growth kicks in, the S&P 500 usually surges, notching double-digit gains nearly…
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ America’s equity outperformance topped out in 2022. U.S. growth still looks solid, but lofty valuations suggest tougher performance ahead, arguing for a more balanced global allocation in 2026.…
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government…
CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return The CAPE10 ratio has rarely stood this high. If past patterns hold, investors could be facing negative real returns over the coming ten years. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based On What The First Five Days Do A bullish start to the year for the S&P 500 lifts investor spirits. When the index is up more than 1% in the…
S&P 500 Seasonality While seasonality in the S&P 500 always tells a story, midterm years rank as the weakest in the four-year presidential cycle but still deliver positive returns more often than not. Image: Goldman…
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections U.S. stocks have a history of pushing higher toward bull market peaks before eventually pulling back. In such periods, corrections tend to be brief, with rebounds…
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio U.S. tech stocks continue to trade at a steep premium versus the rest of the market, despite the recent pullback. Supportive fiscal and monetary winds could help…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator shows investors remain comfortable taking on risk, chasing steady returns with few signs of overheating. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Optimism for 2026 earnings remains high after years of market gains and profit growth, but history shows confidence tends to waver once forecasts meet reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based How the Santa Claus Rally Does A missing Santa Claus rally is rarely good news. Since 1950, years that skipped the festive lift have averaged only 6.1% gains. For bulls,…