MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth…

S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could…

U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity…

Gold Net Speculative Positioning Speculative positioning in gold has reversed sharply in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs still sees prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness.…

S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 typically gives back about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they also got rewarded: the index closed higher in 35…

Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has pulled back from the highs but is still overweight, now sitting in the 66th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes…

S&P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&P 500 has weathered the Fed’s first rate hike better than investors might expect. Following an initial 25 bp move, the index often…

Survey – Where Do You Expect the S&P 500 Index to Be in the Next 12 Months? Half of BCA’s clients see the S&P 500 up 10% or more over the next year, backed by…