Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts have modestly tempered their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, but expectations are still elevated as confidence in the full-year outlook…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 11%, market-implied odds of a US recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, pointing…
Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some tail risk off the table, with Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month U.S. recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average. Image: Goldman…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions have eased since March, pointing to a more growth‑friendly backdrop. Looser conditions typically give near‑term GDP a lift. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image:…
S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic…
S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman…
MSCI AC World EPS Estimates for MSCI AC World EPS in 2026 and 2027 are edging higher as analysts bet the AI and tech surge will translate into fatter margins, not another round of overinvestment.…
U.S. Quality vs. Momentum Equities Since the March lows, momentum has taken the lead over quality, backed by strong earnings prints and positive price action. For now, investors are sticking with companies that deliver on…
Materials Group Positioning Materials positioning has dropped to the 1st percentile, leaving investors heavily underweight. It would not take much to trigger a sharp rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation