S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if…
Concentration – Top 10 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) Compared to the U.S. market, China’s equity market currently shows a historically low level of market capitalization concentration, indicating greater…
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $5.9tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option…
3-Month Rolling S&P 500 Retail Flows Retail traders have demonstrated robust buying activity in recent months, with Goldman Sachs estimating net purchases of approximately $20 billion in U.S. stocks over the past three months. Image:…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In May, U.S. building permits declined to 1.393 million, below expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions Image: Federal…
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the…
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost…
S&P 500 Valuation Multiples Overvaluation in the S&P 500, especially among tech and AI stocks, is a legitimate concern in light of downward revisions to earnings estimates for 2025 and the high degree of index…
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves…
Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Equity Sector Flows While rapid AI growth and an infrastructure boom have driven strong inflows into the technology sector, the energy and health care sectors have experienced outflows during the past year. Image: J.P. Morgan…