S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections Ahead of midterm elections, U.S. equities have often gone sideways, with volatility rising and performance typically improving after the vote as uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving in the opposite direction of rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to swings in rates, but if volatility cools and the outlook becomes more predictable,…
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is repeating the same refrain: corporate profits are still resilient. 64% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while only…
VIX Seasonality There’s a seasonal tendency for volatility to pick up at this time of year. As it climbs from late July into the autumn months, that can make for a trickier period for U.S.…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice
History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years The AI rally is powering investor enthusiasm, with semiconductor names among the biggest winners. It’s also reviving talk of past hype cycles and whether the run can last. Image:…
Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Wall Street has been underestimating the scale of hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure. What looked like a one-time wave now looks more like a multiyear arms race across data centers,…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks are still priced richly, with most valuation metrics sitting more than two standard deviations above history. Cheap may be dead for now, but momentum could keep…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures puts the S&P 500 close to oversold territory, opening the door to a reflex bounce. Image: MarketDesk Research
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility…
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation…