Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.43% YoY in July. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. IG Credit Spread IG credit spreads in the U.S. have widened lately, particularly across tech, as the market demands a higher premium for AI-driven capex, heavy debt supply, rising leverage, and uncertain returns. Image:…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of the U.S. economy losing momentum, forecasting growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, slightly above consensus, as the labor market remains resilient. Image:…
Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in large-cap MCG and Tech has surged, leaving the sector overweight and much closer to where it should be given today’s earnings growth. Image: Deutsche…
Weekly Net Flow to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April, attracting $850 million after a hack that refocused attention on the risks of holding digital assets. Image: Bloomberg
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates keep surprising to the upside as earnings season rolls on. Hyperscaler spending is now on track to hit over $1 trillion in 2027. That looks less like a cycle…
Performance – S&P 500 MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 After bouncing off the bottom of its long-term trend channel, the MCG and Tech relative performance ratio has rallied back…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession With market-implied recession odds at only 12% for the next year, below the long-run average, the risk backdrop…
Global Equities Performance Since the start of 2025, U.S. stocks have lagged other major markets, bringing a long period of outperformance to an end. The weaker dollar has also pushed international investors to look beyond…
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started This bull market, born in October 2022, is now 3.8 years old. History shows that once a bull reaches the three-year mark, it tends…
Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle…