Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The first half of July has long been a sweet spot for the S&P 500, ranking as the strongest half-month of the year since 1950, even though seasonality is never…

Equity Positioning At the 36th percentile, overall equity positioning points to a modest underweight, while large-cap Tech is near neutral at the 45th percentile, leaving room to increase exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns The S&P 500 is down about 3% so far this month. But if seasonality plays out, July could flip the script, ranking as the strongest month on…

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The rotation out of mega-cap Tech is still underway. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have lagged badly, while the broader market has…

Tech: Capex and Buyback & Dividends Tech capex has now overtaken buybacks and dividends. Are shareholders trading short-term pain for long-term gain? It only works if that spending delivers real returns. Image: Societe Generale Cross…

S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings rising 22% year on year in 2Q 2026, driven largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying the…

S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month Do not tell the bears that the S&P 500 has never peaked in June. Every other month has, at least once since 1950. If history is any guide, the…

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales rose in May to 426K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…

VIX and S&P 500 Seasonality The VIX and the S&P 500 usually move in opposite directions. As volatility rises from late July into the autumn months, the period often proves challenging for U.S. stocks. Image:…

S&P 500 in Gold Terms The S&P 500 priced in gold, often used to track real strength versus currency debasement, broke sharply higher three months ago, pointing to a shift toward stronger risk appetite. Image:…

U.S. Technology Sector Fund Flows Tech funds are acting like a magnet for capital. U.S. inflows have surged to multi-year highs, with roughly $25 billion pouring in over the past four weeks. Sentiment is running…