Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High When markets hit record highs, many investors step back. That caution has often come at a cost: buying…
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 The rotation into Tech has been powerful, but the rally may still have fuel left. Continued earnings strength in AI infrastructure, cloud…
Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Cloud revenue growth at the hyperscalers hit 48% in Q2. Goldman Sachs equity analysts forecast 55% in Q3. It’s an encouraging sign, but not proof that the AI spending boom will pay…
NASDAQ 100 vs. Tech Capex The Nasdaq 100 turned lower in 2000, nine months before tech investment as a share of U.S. GDP peaked. Will this time be different? Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and generated a 288% gain. Nearly four years into the current rally, the market still appears to…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forwad P/E Ratio vs. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index came in hotter than expected, raising a warning flag for equity valuations. Historically, rising manufacturing…
AAII Asset Allocation Despite persistently bearish sentiment, U.S. retail investors grew more optimistic in September, raising their stock allocation to its highest level since December 2017. The move was a vote of confidence in equities.…
Hyperscaler Quarterly Y/Y Capex Growth Hyperscaler capex is expected to surge 116% year/year in Q3 2026, giving S&P 500 earnings a powerful boost. But the spending boom is likely to cool over the next few…
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Corporate America is delivering solid profits, with margins expected to reach 15% in the third quarter of 2026. For investors hoping the rally has further…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 98th percentile, leaving them nearly max long with little firepower left to fuel another wave of buying. That makes them vulnerable if…
MOVE Index and Largecap Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has generally moved inversely to rates volatility, with the relationship strengthening or weakening as conditions change. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…