S&P 500 Returns During Midterm Election Years S&P 500 usually rallies after midterms, with gains building from months after the election into the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The equal-weight index trades at 16 times forward earnings, versus 19 times for the benchmark. It’s no bargain, but the valuation gap may give investors a more attractive entry…
Total Factor Productivity in the U.S. AI has not yet sparked an economy-wide productivity surge in the U.S.. Adjusted for utilization, total factor productivity growth was flat in Q2. Image: BCA Research
Estimated Contribution of Hyperscaler Capex to S&P 500 EPS Growth AI spending is still rising, but its boost to earnings is set to fade. Slower capex growth and higher depreciation will leave profits with less…
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt continues to roll over after climbing into the danger zone. That’s not the kind of turn bulls want to see, especially as risks across the…
U.S. Presidential Disapproval Rating With the midterm elections approaching, the president’s disapproval rating has climbed above 60%, a historically high level that leaves Republicans facing a serious political headwind. Image: BCA Research
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates for AI Hyperscalers Initial consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated AI hyperscalers’ capex growth in recent years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 are now roughly 50% above their long-term growth trend. That alone doesn’t signal a market top, but it’s a familiar late-cycle…
Annual Cloud Capex J.P. Morgan projects cloud capex will climb to $967 billion in 2026 and $1.425 trillion in 2027 driven by surging AI demand, before flattening out from 2028 to 2030. Image: J.P. Morgan
Seasonality of Market Performance – MSCI USA If history is any guide, the U.S. stock market is in a seasonally strong period, one that has often produced the market’s best returns of the year. Image:…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.48% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.