S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is starting to roll over, and that is not really the signal bulls want to see. After climbing into the danger zone, it is now…

CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning remains elevated across most major indexes. The S&P 500 sits at the 80th percentile, while the Nasdaq-100 still lags at the 47th. The Russell 2000 is stretched at the…

MSCI AC World EPS Earnings aren’t just good, they’re strong, and revisions are unusually well supported. The Street is pricing in AI-driven margin expansion without a capex blowout. So where’s the bubble risk, in earnings…

Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad…

S&P 500 Days in a Row without a 1% Drop Thirty-five trading days without a 1% decline have left the S&P 500 unusually calm. Historically, stretches of such low volatility have been more common in…

Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 has become a market of giants. Its 10 largest stocks now represent 40% of the index…

Hyperscaler Capex US hyperscalers are on track to spend $806 billion this year, with annual capex projected to reach $1.234 trillion by 2027. That kind of spending points to an AI infrastructure supercycle, not just…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees no sign of the US economy slowing meaningfully, sticking with a 2.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027, right in line with consensus, thanks to a resilient…

Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation Earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven global equities since 2025. That makes the rally more durable and less dependent on falling rates or a renewed surge…

Cumulative Flows Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong this year. Bond demand has held up just as well, even as yields have climbed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023 Since 1994, the Fed has gone through six tightening cycles. Five lasted for years and involved at least six rate hikes. But with real…