Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 March has often been kind to U.S. stocks, with data since 1964 showing the S&P 500 averages a 1.1% gain for the month. Maybe a touch…
Gold Price
Gold Price After the recent sharp pullback, gold is regaining ground helped by central‑bank purchases, lingering market jitters and growing bets on rate cuts. For now, global demand for bullion shows little sign of cooling.…
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is…
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical…
U.S. Real GDP Growth
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is betting on a resilient U.S. economy, projecting growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, both ahead of consensus, as easing inflation and steady hiring keep the…
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows Investors can’t seem to get enough of U.S. stocks. Net inflows in 2025 topped an amount equal to about 2% of GDP, an intensity the market hasn’t seen…
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession.…
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle During midterm election years, U.S. stocks tend to turn more volatile and take a breather, tracing the familiar four-year presidential cycle. This choppiness is common as policy uncertainty peaks before…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally In the days following “Liberation Day,” the odds of a sharp rally were high. Now, the balance has flipped: drawdown risk feels heavier, and equity asymmetry reflects a…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.4% in January. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image:…