Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation Earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven global equities since 2025. That makes the rally more durable and less dependent on falling rates or a renewed surge…
Cumulative Flows Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong this year. Bond demand has held up just as well, even as yields have climbed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023 Since 1994, the Fed has gone through six tightening cycles. Five lasted for years and involved at least six rate hikes. But with real…
Global Equities Performance Since the start of 2025, U.S. stocks have fallen behind other major markets, ending a long run of outperformance. A weaker dollar is giving international investors another reason to look beyond Wall…
S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Corporate guidance points to another quarter of solid earnings growth for the S&P 500, led by continued strength in tech. But the gains are expected to broaden,…
Fed Funds Rate Path Implied by the Median Dots The Fed is signaling higher rates for longer, with a two-hike baseline for 2026, a 2029 median fed-funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a neutral…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.58% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small caps are still being overlooked. Positioning is only in the 41st percentile, far from crowded and with plenty of room for investors to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to about 2.1% U.S. real GDP growth,…
Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S.…
S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too…