Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has delivered returns far above its historical norm over the past three years, but such strength will be hard to repeat given where valuations…

Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank…

DM Manufacturing PMI vs. Global Central Bank Decision Index This year’s key macro theme is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for a fresh…

S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Relative performance between cyclical and defensive stocks points to roughly 1.5% real GDP growth in the U.S., well under Goldman Sachs’ 2.7%…

S&P 500 Based on the Chinese Zodiac Signs The Year of the Horse has begun. Playful as zodiac signs may be on market trends, the Year of the Horse usually trots rather than gallops, with…

YoY Growth in S&P 500 Cash Use Buyback fatigue among hyperscalers points to a strategic pivot: cash is moving to long-term AI projects over short-term shareholder returns, increasing stock volatility as buyback support fades. Image:…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Growth remains solid and earnings keep beating expectations. Trouble is, valuations are stretched, and any dip in confidence could hit hard. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 Software Total Return Bitcoin has been trading hand in hand with U.S. software names. Its current drawdown may stick around for a while if the pressure on tech doesn’t ease. But…

U.S. Inflation – Cleveland Median CPI vs. M2 Savings Deposits When fiscal policy drives money creation, inflation risk jumps. Spending and liquidity rise together, and before long, too much money chases too few goods. Recent…

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Purchasing Power Parity Valuation The U.S. dollar remains richly valued on key metrics, leaving it exposed to further downside despite recent softness. Image: TS Lombard