S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 Since 1928, the S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished the year up in 73% of calendar years. Risk is always there, but staying structurally bearish…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns October has a strong track record in midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain since 1950 and finishing higher nearly 74% of the time. With investors already…

Contribution to Consensus S&P 500 EPS Growth Strong 2026 earnings growth has helped bring down the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple. Consensus expects growth to cool in 2027 and 2028, but slower earnings growth alone…

Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown Drawdown risk for the S&P 500 has increased recently, amid rising yields, looming rate hikes, and weak market breadth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has compressed from 23 to 19, not because prices fell but because earnings estimates rose. Valuations have cooled from their…

Valuation – Hyperscaler Forward P/E Valuations for the hyperscalers have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit at their lowest level in 10 years. They’re still not a bargain, but the risk‑reward looks…

Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E So far this year, rising real yields have forced the S&P 500’s multiple lower, a classic setup where higher discount rates squeeze P/Es without necessarily triggering…

U.S. Composite PMI U.S. business activity surged in September to its fastest pace since July 2021. But, the expansion also intensified inflation risks. Image: Bloomberg

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns October has been kind to the S&P 500 so far. After a strong first half, stocks may have more room to climb: historically, the second half of October tends to…

S&P 500 Performance When Up YTD Between 10-20% at the End of September When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD by late September, Q4 tends to be bullish, with an 86% success…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…