S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates,…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of the U.S. economy losing momentum, forecasting growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, slightly above consensus, as the labor market remains resilient. Image:…

PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years.…

Share of Mutual Funds Outperforming Benchmarks 42% of large-cap mutual funds are beating their benchmarks, still above the long-term average of 37%. The catch? Most managers who beat the market one period can’t do it…

Investor Psychology Cycle When panic hits, markets overshoot to the downside, creating opportunities for contrarians to buy into peak fear. The mirror image? Euphoria, which usually sets up the exit. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in July to 437K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…

Magnificent Seven Minus S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven EPS Growth After years of leading, the Magnificent Seven’s EPS growth has cooled to the point where the rest of the S&P 500 is now growing faster,…

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Small caps could deliver the biggest earnings surge, with profits expected to jump 36% this year and 48% in 2027, compared with 32% and 12%, respectively, for the S&P 500. Image:…

FX Impact from AI Disruption to Services As AI pushes the marginal cost of cognitive work lower, the UK stands out: its services-heavy economy leaves sterling the most exposed to disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank

Equity Risk Premium In the U.S., the equity risk premium has shrunk to the point where stocks barely compensate investors for taking risk over bonds. That weakens the bull case for equities and sets the…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks like the cheap bet, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples are already priced as if nothing can go wrong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…