G7 Budget Deficits, Share of GDP The U.S. is running by far the largest budget deficit among G7 economies when measured relative to GDP, and projections show little improvement over the next few years. Image:…

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs The U.S. macro picture remains solid for now, reinforcing the optimism spreading across Wall Street. Image: Topdown Charts

Share of Global Market Capitalization The U.S. accounts for just 4% of the world’s population, but it commands 63% of global equity value. Its innovation engine keeps pulling in foreign capital. Global markets, as ever,…

U.S. 10s30s and 20Y to 30Y Buybacks Buybacks are starting to look like fiscal QE, with the Treasury flooding the system with short‑term debt to fund the deficit. The problem is that rising yields are…

S&P 500 – Real Growth of $1 in U.S. Stocks Since 1871, U.S. stocks have spent about three out of every four months below a previous peak. The trend line goes up, but the typical…

S&P 500 Abnormal Returns The market keeps rewarding the stubborn. For more than 25 years, U.S. equities have brushed off one wave of bad news after another. Bull markets don’t wait for the headlines to…

Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Tech demand is showing the first faint signs of a pause. It’s far too early to call a change in trend, but investors are cautiously starting to rotate into cyclicals and…

Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors have begun punishing U.S. sectors perceived as most exposed to AI-driven automation, even when those companies still show steady fundamentals, while rewarding the companies supplying the tools behind the…

S&P 500 Earnings Growth This was no ordinary quarter. Even after stripping out the “other income” boost from mark-to-market gains on private equity and venture stakes, S&P 500 earnings still jumped 31% year over year.…

U.S. Net Interest Expense as a % of Total Tax Revenue Washington is increasingly using tax revenue to cover its interest bill. Roughly 20% of federal receipts now goes toward debt service, the highest share…

Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income Stocks now dominate household wealth. As a result, the equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the U.S. business cycle and a…