Crypto Fund Flows Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw their biggest weekly inflows since May, driven largely by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional money is back, and so is the risk appetite. Image: Deutsche…

Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are maxed on equities at the 100th percentile. Risk appetite looks solid, but there’s barely any room left to buy more. Any vol spike now risks a…

S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is…

VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts

Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500’s worst half-month since 1950? That’s the second half of September. So are traders betting history won’t repeat? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sector Fund Flows Over the past 12 months, investors have piled into tech funds on the back of AI fever, chip strength and improving earnings outlooks. Can the momentum hold? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image:…

S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5%…