MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ Since Trump’s inauguration, U.S. equities have lagged their global peers, with Europe ahead by 12%, Japan by 17%, and emerging markets by 27%. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is climbing into the danger zone that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into levels last seen at major market tops. The bulls still run the…

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. equity sentiment indicator stands at 0.9, a level that has historically been followed by an average 1.1% gain in the S&P 500 over the next month.. Image:…

Sector Fund Flows Despite the selloff, semiconductors have seen heavy inflows over the past few weeks. That looks more like dip buying than broad risk aversion. Will it last? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

MSCI ACWI 12-Month Forward EPS With global stocks priced for perfection and ACWI earnings expectations stretched, it looks prudent to take some risk off the table. Image: TS Lombard

S&P 500 CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return With the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio near rare highs, the market looks priced for perfection. History says that kind of setup often leads to…

S&P 500 – Net Debit Balances in NYSE Margin Accountsge The ongoing investor deleveraging wave since June is a near-term headwind for U.S. equities, especially in technology and high-beta momentum stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows…

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 3.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector Tech outperformance has been unusually strong and unusually long, marking one of the most concentrated, longest-running spells of sector leadership in recent market…

S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns History shows the S&P 500 usually takes a 5%–10% hit sometime during the year. After March’s double-digit drop, the next leg down could be shallower. Back-to-back big hits are…

Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years could bring slimmer returns. These are outstanding businesses, but valuation still matters. Even the best names…