U.S. 10-Year Real Yield
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The U.S. 10-year real yield is well above its 1.6% average since 1990. Rising earnings may keep stocks from falling, but higher real yields are limiting multiple expansion and leave valuations…
Gold and Copper Prices
Gold and Copper Prices Goldman Sachs is sticking to its $5,400 gold forecast for the end of 2027. Rising demand and tight supply are keeping the upside case alive for gold and copper. Image: Goldman…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions)
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks remain expensive. But with earnings still climbing and companies beating expectations, that premium looks less like a red flag and more like the…
Fed’s Assets
Real World Tokenized Assets Tokenized real-world assets are finally gaining traction, but their share of the more than $100 trillion U.S. investable asset universe remains negligible. Adoption is only just getting started. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cross-Asset Correlation Matrix
Cross-Asset Correlation Matrix The S&P 500’s one-year correlations are 0.29 with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, 0.44 with gold, and -0.35 with WTI crude oil, a mix that offers useful guidance for asset allocation. Image:…
Economic Forecasts
U.S. Economic Forecasts Two Fed rate hikes are in Deutsche Bank’s forecast. The bank sees the U.S. economy holding up through 2028 and expects a 25 bps hike in December 2026 and another in March…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Bond yields can surge, but they rarely stay at their highs. Since 1990, every peak has been followed by a pullback. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Returns
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities priced for perfection, the next five years could deliver slimmer returns. The businesses are exceptional, but price still matters. Even great stocks can disappoint…
S&P 500 Implied Correlation
S&P 500 Implied Correlation The S&P 500 is climbing, but not every stock is along for the ride. As correlations fall, investors are getting more selective and looking harder at fundamentals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, rising earnings estimates have pulled the S&P 500’s forward P/E down from 23 to 19, despite rising prices. The multiple is now at its 10-year…