S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and generated a 288% gain. Nearly four years into the current rally, the market still appears to…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forwad P/E Ratio vs. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index came in hotter than expected, raising a warning flag for equity valuations. Historically, rising manufacturing…

AAII Asset Allocation Despite persistently bearish sentiment, U.S. retail investors grew more optimistic in September, raising their stock allocation to its highest level since December 2017. The move was a vote of confidence in equities.…

Hyperscaler Quarterly Y/Y Capex Growth Hyperscaler capex is expected to surge 116% year/year in Q3 2026, giving S&P 500 earnings a powerful boost. But the spending boom is likely to cool over the next few…

S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Corporate America is delivering solid profits, with margins expected to reach 15% in the third quarter of 2026. For investors hoping the rally has further…

Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 98th percentile, leaving them nearly max long with little firepower left to fuel another wave of buying. That makes them vulnerable if…

MOVE Index and Largecap Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has generally moved inversely to rates volatility, with the relationship strengthening or weakening as conditions change. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

S&P 500 Performance After A >10% Q2 Quarter History is on the bulls’ side. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 rose more than 10% in Q2, Q4 ended in the green, with an average return…

GS Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions excluding equities have tightened meaningfully, but the broader backdrop remains accommodative and is still supporting growth rather than restraining activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -0.9. After similar readings, the S&P 500 has historically averaged a 0.5% gain over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 27% year on year in 3Q 2026, powered largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying…