Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future…
Energy Positioning vs. Oil Price Energy positioning is lagging what you’d expect considering how far oil prices have already moved up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 has gone nowhere for six months, stuck in a tight trading range. A long consolidation like this often sets up a bigger breakout, one way or the other. Image:…
S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Since 2024, the volatility of the average stock in the S&P 500 has been on the rise. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has turned sharply risk‑averse in recent weeks, as the Middle East conflict and its potential spillovers have made markets more cautious about risk assets. Image: Real…
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Even when midterms shake investor sentiment, history leans bullish, with U.S. stocks up an average of 8.8% in second presidential terms since 1950. Midterm jitters…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose surged 2.6% in February. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically,…
CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar After betting against the U.S. dollar, Commodity Trading Advisors are easing up on their shorts and edging toward neutral. Few will be surprised as the greenback finds support when…
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Crude Oil Price in Real Terms The longer the oil shock drags on, the greater the risk it spills into the broader economy. For now, traders are betting this surge won’t last, expecting that…