Volatility – VIX Index Oil’s sharp swings on the latest geopolitical shocks help explain the elevated VIX. Calmer energy prices tend to bring volatility back down. For now, the oil tape is driving broader market…

S&P 500 and Cross-Asset Volatility Stress Rising cross-asset volatility often signals growing fragility in U.S. equities. It is a cautionary signal, not a call on an imminent crash. It’s more of a yellow flag than…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a slower-growth view. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks point to roughly 1.4% U.S. real GDP growth,…

S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns Saint Patrick’s Day is putting a smile on the bulls, as it’s not just one of the greenest days of the year but also historically the strongest for…

S&P 500 Return Around 7 Major Geopolitical Risk Events The S&P 500’s 5% slide from its January peak mirrors the market’s typical pullback after major geopolitical shocks. Many investors see the turbulence as temporary, betting…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Despite the pullback, U.S. and global equity valuations remain elevated, with earnings momentum carrying the load. As long as companies keep delivering, those rich multiples may continue…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are slightly overweight at the 55th percentile, while discretionary investors positioning is still cautious at the 21st percentile. A change in sentiment could pave the way for more…

EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, Topix, and especially MSCI EM point to growing confidence in 2026 earnings, with momentum still tilted toward strength even as the STOXX 600 struggles to keep…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Historically, the second half of March tends to finish in the green. Seasonality helps, but just when a rally starts to look inevitable, the market has a habit of flipping…

S&P 500 and Crude Oil Since the conflict erupted in the Middle East, the S&P 500 has been moving almost opposite to oil, showing a striking 91% inverse correlation. When crude rises, investors often worry…

S&P 500 Performance When Q1 Low Breaks the December Low Close When the S&P 500 sinks below its December low in the first quarter, history tends to flash a warning light. On average, U.S. stocks…