S&P 500 Drawdown to Subsequent Three-Year Trough When U.S. equity valuations soar and just a handful of giants drive the gains, history rarely smiles and often follows with sharp corrections or years of going nowhere.…
Cash to Total Assets S&P 500 and S&P 500 Ex-Financials The corporate cash cushion is thinning. S&P 500 firms have slashed their reserves from pandemic peaks, redirecting capital toward AI infrastructure, growth projects, and buybacks…
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Investors’ continued tilt toward riskier assets signals growing confidence in the markets and the broader economic outlook, alongside a clear appetite for capital growth and higher returns. Image: Goldman…
Share of S&P 500 Annual Return Contributed by the 10 Largest Stocks In 2025, just 10 stocks generated more than half of the S&P 500’s gains, a reminder that the market’s engine is running on…
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average returns in any given year. Will 2026 keep the winning streak alive with another year of…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity weakened further in December, as the ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 47.9, short of expectations for 48.3, marking another month of contraction and lingering softness…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, slightly higher than…
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 This year, the Magnificent Seven are poised to post earnings growth of about 24%, twice the 12% projected for the rest of the S&P 500.…
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps…
Performance – S&P 500 Relative to MSCI All-World Ex-U.S. The S&P 500 underperformed global markets by 9.9% in dollar terms in 2025, its biggest lag since 2009, as U.S. tariffs bit and the AI trade…