S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls…

Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio for the S&P 500 The Shiller CAPE has pushed above 40, approaching the 44-times peak seen at the height of the dot-com frenzy. Such rich valuations have often signaled markets…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a US recession within the next 12 months is 19%, a level slightly…

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index With rates drifting lower and quantitative tightening in the rearview mirror, U.S. financial conditions are easing, creating a friendlier setting for growth across both households and firms. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Gold vs. 1970s Gold has been shining bright, but it’s nowhere near the late-1970s gold rush. Investors might want to keep an open mind. Image: Bloomberg

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Optimism is running high on Wall Street for 2026, with analysts forecasting a 14% rise in S&P 500 earnings. But small caps could be the real story, with EPS growth forecast…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in December As the holidays approach, buyers usually return and the year-end rally tends to pick up speed in the second half of December. Historically, U.S. stocks have climbed…

U.S. Dollar Positioning Bearish bets on the U.S. dollar are crowded, and past extremes in positioning have often been the prelude to a rebound. Image: TS Lombard

Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning With positioning at the 78th percentile, appetite for mega-cap growth and tech stays strong, but not overstretched. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The broad market is quietly rotating: the S&P 500 is just below its October highs, but small caps and the average stock are outperforming,…

S&P 500 Trend Channel Valuations may look stretched, but the S&P 500 has held a steady 22.7% annualized uptrend since October 2022 and now sits near the bottom of that trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank…