S&P 500 Performance After Day 100 Is Up >9% YTD Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically…

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 June is often a tricky month for U.S. stocks in midterm years, with a track record of softer returns and choppier swings. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in April to 398K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Brent Oil Future Markets have treated oil and yields as a pair trade since the Middle East conflict began. Hopes of a peace deal could keep the oil-driven move in…

S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth indicators shows the S&P 500 is approaching overbought levels, increasing the odds of a near-term consolidation. Given the recent momentum, a pause wouldn’t be surprising. Image:…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a steady growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of about…

Semiconductors vs. Consensus Fwd 12m EPS Semiconductor stocks have rallied faster than analysts have raised near-term earnings estimates, leaving valuations stretched relative to short-term fundamentals. The easy upside appears largely exhausted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

S&P 500 – Corrections vs. Bear Markets The S&P 500 now stands roughly 83% above its long-term trend, with the Shiller CAPE close to 42. Even a 20% selloff would fall short of signaling a…

Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events can rattle markets, but U.S. equities have repeatedly bounced back and pushed higher as investors refocus beyond the headlines, rewarding those who stay patient.…

Estimated S&P 500 EPS and Y/Y Growth Goldman Sachs is betting the earnings strength has legs, forecasting S&P 500 EPS growth of 24% in 2026 to $340, followed by 13% in 2027 to $385. If…

Indexed Market Cap and Consensus Fwd 12m EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies Earnings momentum is driving the AI infrastructure complex’s outperformance so far this year, with capital flowing to names that are already translating…