Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Cumulative flows into cryptocurrency funds have flipped positive for the first time since May 2026, driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutions are stepping back in, and risk…
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been trading inversely to rate volatility. Warsh’s conventionally hawkish tone lowers the odds of catch-up tightening, which should help anchor rates vol and give stocks a…
Total Return Performance (USD Terms) of Selected Assets in August Precious metals stole the show in August, with silver and gold each climbing double digits as money rotated into havens amid U.0.S debt worries, dollar…
10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance Under President Trump September seasonality is flashing green. Under President Trump, U.S. stocks have closed higher in September in four out of five years, giving bulls reason to smile. Image:…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.6% in the month and finished higher in just 47% of Septembers.…
Crypto Fund Flows Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw their biggest weekly inflows since May, driven largely by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional money is back, and so is the risk appetite. Image: Deutsche…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are maxed on equities at the 100th percentile. Risk appetite looks solid, but there’s barely any room left to buy more. Any vol spike now risks a…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is…