S&P 500 Performance After ≥ 12% Over the First 150 Trading Days of the Year The S&P 500 has gained 12% or more in its first 150 trading days on 22 occasions since 1950. While…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The sharp rally has brought the S&P 500 back to the bottom of its nearly four-year uptrend channel. If buyers defend the level, the rally could have further room to run.…
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without…
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year March’s 9% pullback may already be the year’s deepest. If so, the market has less room for another major selloff. Back-to-back drawdowns of that size are rare,…
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI 2026 belonged to global growth, but the wind is turning. Inflation is firming, putting rate hikes back in play. The road into 2027 looks slower and bumpier.…
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is repeating the same refrain: corporate profits are still resilient. 64% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while only…
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns Most years, the S&P 500 gives up 5% to 10%. With March’s double-digit drop already in the books, the next move lower may be more modest. Back-to-back big drawdowns…
New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year The S&P 500 has reached 25 record highs this year. In robust bull markets, new highs usually come in clusters and last longer than the crowd expects,…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales rose in June to 483K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Revisions Large-cap tech companies have seen upward earnings revisions, but positioning remains only modestly overweight at the 54th percentile. That gap to fundamentals leaves some air for…
CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar The latest pullback has barely dented CTA appetite for the U.S. dollar, with positioning sitting at the 93rd percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation