Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady expansion, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2% U.S. real GDP…
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility…
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation…
MSCI AC World EPS EPS estimates for the MSCI AC World are being pushed higher for 2026 and 2027, with the Street betting AI’s tech boom will lift margins rather than trigger another capex hangover.…
Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in Consumer Staples is stuck in the 6th percentile, leaving investors heavily underweight. A modest change in sentiment could be enough to ignite a rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real…
Effective Corporate Tax Rate Corporate tax rates have fallen since the 1980s in many markets, with little movement in the past few years. That tailwind has often translated into higher dividends and increased buybacks, reinforcing…
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Average Closing Price Under a high‑price stress scenario, Brent could climb past 120 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and still average close to 100 dollars through 2027…
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Are U.S. long-bond yields on the verge of breaking above their post-2007 ceiling? The level around 5% could give way if inflation stays sticky, demand for long-duration remains weak, or the…
U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in June. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…