Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Earnings sentiment for the U.S. has cooled from earlier highs but stays positive overall, with strong corporate results helping to temper recession fears and sustain the bull…
Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations Markets can soar beyond reason for a while, but history doesn’t forget: inflated valuations almost never reward patience. When the air gets thin, discipline and diversification keep portfolios…
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains While some volatility is likely, momentum still favors the bulls. After a powerful run from 2023 to 2025, the S&P 500 Index could…
Gold Price (5-Year Rolling Change) and World Military Expenses When governments ramp up military spending, gold tends to sparkle. Rising geopolitical risks and looser fiscal policy weaken paper currencies and revive inflation worries, sending investors…
Earnings Growth The gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to narrow, paving the way for a broader, more balanced earnings landscape across the index in 2026 and…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.15% YoY in November. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
U.S. Current Account Balance as a % of GDP The U.S. current account deficit has been on a widening path since 2019 and looks poised to stay elevated into 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image:…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.12% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Retail Traders Average Portfolio Stock Allocation and Investment Managers Average Stock Exposure Over the past two decades, periods when both retail and professional traders were this heavily long have often been followed by S&P 500…
S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls…