Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession With market-implied recession odds at only 12% for the next year, below the long-run average, the risk backdrop…
Global Equities Performance Since the start of 2025, U.S. stocks have lagged other major markets, bringing a long period of outperformance to an end. The weaker dollar has also pushed international investors to look beyond…
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started This bull market, born in October 2022, is now 3.8 years old. History shows that once a bull reaches the three-year mark, it tends…
Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 1.2. In the past, similar levels have preceded an average 1.2% rise in the S&P 500 over the following month.Image: Goldman Sachs…
S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 After spending two months stuck in a narrow range, the S&P 500 broke decisively higher during earnings season. Investors had been underpositioned for the strength of earnings and were now…
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings growth is set to accelerate from 25% in Q1 to 34% in Q2, a pace rarely seen outside the early stages of an economic recovery. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 Performance After ≥ 12% Over the First 150 Trading Days of the Year The S&P 500 has gained 12% or more in its first 150 trading days on 22 occasions since 1950. While…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The sharp rally has brought the S&P 500 back to the bottom of its nearly four-year uptrend channel. If buyers defend the level, the rally could have further room to run.…
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without…