S&P 500 Return Around 7 Major Geopolitical Risk Events The S&P 500’s 5% slide from its January peak mirrors the market’s typical pullback after major geopolitical shocks. Many investors see the turbulence as temporary, betting…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Despite the pullback, valuations in U.S. and global equities remain lofty, with earnings momentum doing the heavy lifting. As long as companies keep delivering solid numbers, those…
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are slightly overweight at the 55th percentile, while discretionary investors positioning is still cautious at the 21st percentile. A change in sentiment could pave the way for more…
EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, Topix, and especially MSCI EM point to growing confidence in 2026 earnings, with momentum still tilted toward strength even as the STOXX 600 struggles to keep…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Historically, the second half of March tends to finish in the green. Seasonality helps, but just when a rally starts to look inevitable, the market has a habit of flipping…
S&P 500 and Crude Oil Since the conflict erupted in the Middle East, the S&P 500 has been moving almost opposite to oil, showing a striking 91% inverse correlation. When crude rises, investors often worry…
S&P 500 Performance When Q1 Low Breaks the December Low Close When the S&P 500 sinks below its December low in the first quarter, history tends to flash a warning light. On average, U.S. stocks…
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading 56% above its estimated medium‑term fair value. Apart from the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this overbought, leaving room for downside if conditions normalize. Image:…
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events U.S. stocks have a habit of looking past turbulence in oil. After past geopolitical flare-ups, the S&P 500 has usually pushed higher, and this episode could follow the same…
Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count Goldman Sachs has toughened its base case for the Strait of Hormuz, now expecting 21 days of minimal crude flows followed by a month‑long recovery…
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. rate volatility keeps climbing as Middle East tensions shake investors, pushing the MOVE index above 95 and pulling stocks lower. The spike tells you everything about the market mood…