Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Hyperscaler capex has held fairly steady this earnings season, breaking from the faster pace of recent quarters. Analysts expect spending to reach $808 billion in 2026, $1.163 trillion in 2027, and…
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow AI spending is set to keep hyperscaler free cash flow in the red through 2027, before a recovery in 2028. For now, the cash burn is the price…
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Investors are fixated on AI spending. Meanwhile, U.S. companies have authorized a record $1.268 trillion in buybacks so far this year, giving equities a significant source of support. Image: Goldman…
18 AI Buildout Names = 33.6% of the S&P 500 If the AI complex falls 20% while everything else holds steady, the S&P 500 would drop 6.7%. The other 485 stocks would need to rise…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 November has typically been a bright spot for U.S. stocks, with an average gain of 1.6%. Seasonal flows, holiday-spending optimism and year-end positioning could help extend…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.62%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures places the S&P 500 above neutral, but nowhere near overbought. A push higher is still on the table if momentum returns. So far, though, the…
Monthly Prediction Trading Volumes Retail trading activity has cooled year over year, but prediction markets are heating up. Their monthly volume hit $78 billion in September. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives suggests U.S. real GDP growth of 1.9%,…
The Cost of Calling a Bubble Early: S&P 500 vs. T-bills Seven years ago, many serious investors warned that the market was in a bubble. Since October 2019, $100,000 in the S&P 500 has grown…
S&P 500 Median Performance Around First Fed Rate Hikes U.S. stocks often struggle for about four months after the first rate hike, then rebound. 2026 appears to be following the same pattern. Image: Goldman Sachs…