S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons With the post-earnings lull over, Wall Street is now turning its attention to the next reporting season, a period that has often been friendly to U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 Performance Around FOMC Meetings The S&P 500 sold off again after the FOMC meeting last week, only to rally the next day, as investors refocused on what matters most: earnings. Image: Deutsche Bank…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 12%, market-implied recession odds for the next year remain below their long-term average, leaving a supportive…
Global Financial Tightness Indicator vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI SA Tighter financial conditions are starting to hit manufacturing sentiment and order flow. If the squeeze persists, the ISM Manufacturing PMI could weaken further, adding pressure to…
Net Flows into Global Equity Funds Global equity funds have enjoyed strong inflows this year, though weekly flows have grown noticeably more volatile in recent weeks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance in Midterm Years September has often been challenging for U.S. stocks in midterm years. But October and November have historically been the best months, with risk appetite usually returning as election uncertainty…
Largecap Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Large-cap equity positioning sits at the 65th percentile, modestly overweight but still cautious given the strength of earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is starting to roll over, and that is not really the signal bulls want to see. After climbing into the danger zone, it is now…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning remains elevated across most major indexes. The S&P 500 sits at the 80th percentile, while the Nasdaq-100 still lags at the 47th. The Russell 2000 is stretched at the…
MSCI AC World EPS Earnings aren’t just good, they’re strong, and revisions are unusually well supported. The Street is pricing in AI-driven margin expansion without a capex blowout. So where’s the bubble risk, in earnings…
Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad…