NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment​ Active managers have trimmed their exposure to US equities, with the NAAIM Exposure Index slipping to 74.53, its lowest level in four weeks. But they haven’t turned bearish. The National…

Annual Cloud Capex J.P. Morgan projects cloud capex will climb to $967 billion in 2026 and $1.425 trillion in 2027 driven by surging AI demand, before flattening out from 2028 to 2030. Image: J.P. Morgan

Seasonality of Market Performance – MSCI USA If history is any guide, the U.S. stock market is in a seasonally strong period, one that has often produced the market’s best returns of the year. Image:…

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.48% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Hyperscalers Realized Return on Invested Capital Hyperscalers’ ROIC has dropped from 40% to 25%. But the bigger concern is that the AI buildout may be less profitable than reported, with shadow debt and circular financing…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are signaling steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to 1.9% real GDP growth in the…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium has turned negative, putting U.S. stocks in a tricky situation: higher risk for lower expected returns. That’s a tough pitch, especially if earnings or sentiment falter.…

Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have generally performed better under Republican-led Congresses than under Democratic-led ones. The best annual returns came when Congress was split,…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a constructive year-end. After the early-year correction, much of the usual midterm-year weakness may already be behind the market. Image:…

S&P 500 – Short Interest in SPY U.S. Equity ETF Short interest in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains near historic lows, suggesting investors are positioned for gains, not a sharp reversal. That leaves little short-covering…

S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) S&P 500 ROE is rising, but investors are beginning to question whether today’s exceptional returns are sustainable. For now, earnings expectations remain supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research