Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index The Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.8% in September. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart…

Five-Year Credit-Default Swaps on Hyperscalers and Chipmakers The AI boom is pushing credit risk to new highs. The race to build is becoming a race to borrow. And protection against default keeps getting more expensive.…

Central Bank Gold Demand Nowcast Gold buying by central banks has eased, but official-sector demand remains historically strong, helping diversify reserves and support prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX and bullish sentiment, is cooling but it’s still running hot. The danger is that one ugly…

Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E Rising real yields have compressed the S&P 500’s multiple. If bond yields hold near current levels, stocks could keep climbing higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The U.S. 10-year real yield is well above its 1.6% average since 1990. Rising earnings may keep stocks from falling, but higher real yields are limiting multiple expansion and leave valuations…

Gold and Copper Prices Goldman Sachs is sticking to its $5,400 gold forecast for the end of 2027. Rising demand and tight supply are keeping the upside case alive for gold and copper. Image: Goldman…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks remain expensive. But with earnings still climbing and companies beating expectations, that premium looks less like a red flag and more like the…

Real World Tokenized Assets Tokenized real-world assets are finally gaining traction, but their share of the more than $100 trillion U.S. investable asset universe remains negligible. Adoption is only just getting started. Image: Deutsche Bank

Cross-Asset Correlation Matrix The S&P 500’s one-year correlations are 0.29 with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, 0.44 with gold, and -0.35 with WTI crude oil, a mix that offers useful guidance for asset allocation. Image:…