YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns…
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 July has been a friendly month for U.S. stocks, with average returns of 0.8% going back to 1964. If that seasonal pattern holds, bulls could have…
Gold Model Using a model that incorporates real yields, the dollar, the S&P 500, and copper, gold now appears to be trading near fair value again. That leaves investors with a neutral signal. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Margin Debt Margin debt is rising fast. Leverage can turbocharge gains in a rally, but it cuts just as hard when sentiment shifts. Investors would be wise to pay attention. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth The median S&P 500 stock is expected to report 9% EPS growth in Q2 2026, a far cry from the 22% EPS growth forecast for the aggregate index. Image: Goldman…
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have slipped from the top of their long-term trend channel…
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate U.S. breakeven inflation rates are not just easing. They have been falling sharply, pointing to markets pricing in weaker inflation ahead, a welcome sign for stability and growth. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Equity Positioning At the 36th percentile, overall equity positioning points to a modest underweight, while large-cap Tech is near neutral at the 45th percentile, leaving room to increase exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns The S&P 500 is down about 3% so far this month. But if seasonality plays out, July could flip the script, ranking as the strongest month on…
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The rotation out of mega-cap Tech is still underway. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have lagged badly, while the broader market has…