S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform strongly in the year after a Fed rate cut begins, particularly if economic growth continues. Image: TS Lombard

U.S. Labor Market – Job Openings per Unemployed Worker The ratio of U.S. job openings to unemployed workers below 1 indicates labor market weakness, with policy uncertainty and slowing demand increasing the likelihood of a…

Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and…

Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors Investor allocation to equities has reached an all-time high, driven by retail enthusiasm and strong performance. However, rising valuations and concentrated leadership…

Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio with 10-Year Total Returns Valuations don’t matter—until they do. Over the past 150 years, high valuations have been a sign of poor forward returns, with negative real returns over…

Share of Global Market Capitalization With a 65% share of the global equity market, the United States exerts a significant influence over the global financial landscape, attracting investment and setting market trends that eclipse those…

Share of Top 5 Companies by Market Capitalization in the S&P 500 The U.S. equity market is highly concentrated in just a few mega-cap tech companies. While this does not definitively mean the U.S. is…

World Technology vs. World Ex. TMT Continuous technological innovation, resilience, and the expanding societal dependence on technology strongly underpin the tech sector’s prospects for sustained market outperformance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – PEG Ratio between U.S. and Europe The widening PEG ratio gap indicates that European stocks are trading at cheaper growth-adjusted valuations compared to U.S. stocks, supported by improving earnings growth prospects in Europe.…

U.S. Stock Market – Margin Debt and Free Cash Balances The current record margin debt, exceeding $1 trillion, signals heightened investor risk-taking and confidence; however, if the market falters, this elevated leverage could amplify volatility…

Top 10 S&P 500 Returns June – August A strong summer rally, such as the one in 2025, typically signals bullish sentiment and often leads to further gains in the S&P 500 for the remainder…