Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than…

S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years After a weak first quarter, the S&P 500 is tracking the familiar Trump-era playbook, with a rally still very much in play for the rest of the year. For…

Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is at one of its most accommodative levels in years, a friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank

The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections The post-midterm playbook has been remarkably consistent. Across the past 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 was higher nine months…

Healthcare Positioning At just the 32nd percentile, healthcare positioning still looks underweight, leaving investors room to build positions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman…

U.S. Dollar Net Positioning Traders haven’t been this bullish on the dollar in years. The greenback is gaining ground as markets price in a Fed hike. Dead dollar? Not yet. Image: Bloomberg

Median Short Interest Across Russell 3000 Stocks Median short interest across Russell 3000 names has surged to multi-year highs as bearish positioning intensifies, setting the stage for a potential squeeze. Crowded shorts have a habit…

S&P 500 Performance After A >10% Q2 Quarter History leans very bullish. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in Q2, the rest of the year has finished in the red…

Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Valuations don’t matter until they do. Across 150 years of market history, stretched valuations have been a reliable warning sign, with each of the past three peaks followed by…

S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) With S&P 500 profit margins holding near 13% and rates still low, equity valuations have more room to breathe. Goldman Sachs now expects 7% annual returns…