Carson Proprietary Leading Economic Index – USA Carson’s LEI shows the U.S. economy in good shape and recession risk fading, leaving bulls with room to stay bullish. Image: Carson Investment Research

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 Since October 2025, the Mag-7 has been a drag on U.S. indices, posting gains of less than 5% as June selling picked…

S&P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes In fast tightening cycles, the S&P 500 typically struggles in the 12 months post-first hike; in slow or no cycles, it tends to rally.…

Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still trading as if nothing can go wrong, the next five years are likely to deliver thinner returns. The businesses are outstanding, but price…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 1.46% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

S&P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in…

Average S&P 500 Performance Midterm years typically bring a bumpy start to the second half for the S&P 500, with sellers gaining traction into October as summer ends. Post-election, the market has a habit of…

MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth…

S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could…

U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity…