Equities, Cash and Real Estate as % of U.S. Household Net Financial Wealth Stocks have overtaken real estate as the bigger store of household wealth in the U.S., and that has become a meaningful tailwind…

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When U.S. Treasury yields climb fast, the most expensive high-growth stocks often take the biggest hit. A sudden 50 basis point rise in…

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while consensus puts the odds closer to 20%, above…

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 Investors are still rotating out of mega-cap tech. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have underperformed sharply, while the broader market has proved…

Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are turning more cautious as the Insider Transactions Ratio slips back into bearish territory, with little sign of buying interest. Image: Barron’s

Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a…

S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections Ahead of midterm elections, U.S. equities have often gone sideways, with volatility rising and performance typically improving after the vote as uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving in the opposite direction of rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to swings in rates, but if volatility cools and the outlook becomes more predictable,…

VIX Seasonality There’s a seasonal tendency for volatility to pick up at this time of year. As it climbs from late July into the autumn months, that can make for a trickier period for U.S.…

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice

History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years The AI rally is powering investor enthusiasm, with semiconductor names among the biggest winners. It’s also reviving talk of past hype cycles and whether the run can last. Image:…