S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is climbing into territory that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into what many view as the danger zone. Momentum remains on the bulls’ side for…
Price Return in 2026 The median stock in each region is lagging this year, with gains concentrated in a narrow group of heavyweight tech names. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ROE for Mega-Cap Tech and the Rest of the S&P 500 Mega-cap tech’s return on equity is expected to face headwinds and decline through 2028, while the rest of the S&P 500 sees ROE trending…
Margin Debt as Percentage of M2 (Measure of Leverage) Leverage amplifies gains in rising markets but reveals fragility when sentiment turns. Margin debt relative to the money supply is running hot, echoing levels last seen…
GS Financial Conditions Index With markets advancing, confidence is firming, supported by looser U.S. financial conditions that are feeding through to stronger consumer spending and business investment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -0.92% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…
Median Stock Return on Equity vs. P/E Valuation Profitability gaps go a long way in explaining why equity indices trade at different valuations. Companies that generate higher returns on equity typically earn richer multiples. Image:…
Cumulative Equity Flows U.S. and international equity inflows have remained robust over the past year and have accelerated in recent months, pointing to a supportive environment for further market upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to hold steady, forecasting 2.0% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a resilient labor market keeping the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil rises, inflation tends to follow, pushing up energy and transport costs that ripple across the economy. That dynamic often pressures equities, as margins tighten and consumers pull back.…