S&P 500 Four Month Range The S&P 500 has spent four months drifting in a tight range, the kind of calm that rarely lasts. Which way it breaks is anyone’s guess, but as traders like…

Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech has kept sliding and now sits slightly underweight, similar to cyclical sectors. A rebound in momentum could turn that into an opportunity. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Estimated Wealth Effects on Annualized Real PCE Growth Should stocks stumble, the positive wealth effect supporting consumption may turn into a headwind during the second half of 2026. After all, consumer sentiment is definitely tied…

Share of Russell 3000 Firms Discussing Layoffs During Quarterly Earnings Calls You won’t hear much about layoffs on earnings calls these days, a hint that management still sees blue skies for growth. Talk of job…

Weight of TMT in the S&P 500 At 37% of S&P 500 earnings, Information Technology and Communication Services remain the market’s driving force, with the trend still pointing higher. Hard to bet against tech when…

S&P 500 Index Returns in February The S&P 500 tends to lose a bit of steam as February winds down, with the final days often trending softer. Nobody likes it, but few are really surprised. Image:…

Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median At 2.7%, short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is on the high side, but the buildup appears tied to portfolio hedging, not a…

Valuation – Magnificent Seven Forward P/E The Magnificent 7 are trading at their lowest premium to the rest of the S&P 500 in a decade. That doesn’t necessarily make them cheap, but the risk‑reward looks…

Software Stocks (IGV) and Forward P/E The recent weakness in software stocks reflects a valuation de-rating rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Retail investors have been adding exposure on dips, even as institutional money stays cautious. Image:…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch…

Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows Industrial funds have seen a surge in inflows over the past year, outpacing every other sector and showing no sign of losing momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation