Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials remains exceptionally light, sitting in just the 2nd percentile, leaving plenty of room to add exposure. That caution looks overdone given the fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather…
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt rolling over from the danger zone isn’t exactly the kind of move bulls want to see. It’s a red flag for the market and definitely…
Gold Price Gold is trading lower in part because higher inflation risk is keeping interest rates higher for longer, which hurts non‑yielding assets like gold even amid volatility and geopolitical stress. Image: MarketDesk Research
Aggregate U.S. Dollar Position, Non-Commercial Traders Rising Middle East tensions and a jump in energy prices have pushed speculators back into the U.S. dollar, marking their first net-long position of the year. No surprise there:…
Monthly Brent Oil Price Oil prices face greater upside than downside risk in the near term, with Brent likely to stay elevated if disruptions persist. Given how slowly such issues tend to ease, the balance…
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings…
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for…
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings has cooled slightly in recent weeks but remains positive overall amid ongoing optimistic outlooks for the full…
Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has…
S&P 500 Performance vs. EM and DM Ex-U.S. Equities Since the Middle East conflict began, the S&P 500 has left global peers behind, outperforming both emerging and developed ex‑U.S. markets. Investors still see the U.S.…