Equity Share of U.S. Household Financial Asset Portfolio vs. S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio With everyone crowded into equities and valuations stretched, there’s little cushion left. History doesn’t call for a crash, but it shows…
U.S. 2-Year Yield Around First Fed Rate Hikes U.S. yields often rise ahead of the first rate hike. In modest tightening cycles, they tend to peak soon after. In more sustained ones, they keep climbing.…
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are not yet running hot. Goldman Sachs’s U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator is firm, but remains below previous cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 13%, market-implied recession odds for the next year remain below their long-run average, keeping the backdrop…
S&P 500 Real Trailing 4Q EPS Relative to 30-Year Trend S&P 500 earnings are running well ahead of their 30-year trend, helping support stocks. But if the boom loses steam, lofty valuations could leave the…
S&P 500 Performance from the October 26 Close to December 31, by Market Regime In the nine midterm years since 1951 when the S&P 500 was up year to date on October 26, it rose…
S&P 500 Average Performance per Day The calendar favors the bulls: October 28 has historically been the S&P 500’s best day of the year. Will the Fed spoil the party today? Image: Carson Investment Research
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households now own 42% of the U.S. equity market. But that ownership is heavily concentrated, with nearly 90% in the hands of the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Seasonality – Average Path of the S&P 500 Through a Year Since 1928, With Midterm and Non-Midterm Years Averages mask wide dispersion, but if history is any guide, the S&P 500 is entering into a…
MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 MCG & Tech has fallen over the past two weeks while the rest of the S&P 500 pushed higher. The divergence points to sector rotation rather than…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market puts the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year at just 13%. Consensus is closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is…