Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Middle East tensions haven’t rattled Wall Street’s mood. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings to jump 17% in both 2026 and 2027, while small-cap profits could surge 48% this year and another…
Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 deteriorated sharply last week, a warning sign that strength at the index level may be masking…
S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a…
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often…
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this…
Global Crude Oil Export Global crude exports have tumbled as conflict flares across the Middle East, rattling supply routes. Analysts see several weeks of disruption but some relief ahead if tensions cool. Image: J.P. Morgan…
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the…
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 43rd percentile, positioning reflects a market that has eased slightly below neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, well away from both extreme optimism or panic. Image: Deutsche Bank…