U.S. Corporate Profits as % of GDP U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP are at record highs, which on their own don’t signal an imminent recession. The question is not whether margins are…

EUR/USD vs. Average of 5-Year Real & Nominal Rate Differential U.S–euro area rate differentials remain a key headwind for EUR/USD, with the narrative increasingly about Fed hawkishness and the prospect of wider spreads ahead. Image:…

Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has eased from its highs but remains modestly overweight, at the 61st percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Insider Transactions Ratio With insider buys and sells now in balance, the Insider Transactions Ratio has drifted back to neutral. For now, insiders aren’t sending investors a clear message. Image: Barron’s

S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons With the post-earnings lull over, Wall Street is now turning its attention to the next reporting season, a period that has often been friendly to U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche…

S&P 500 Performance Around FOMC Meetings The S&P 500 sold off again after the FOMC meeting last week, only to rally the next day, as investors refocused on what matters most: earnings. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 12%, market-implied recession odds for the next year remain below their long-term average, leaving a supportive…

Global Financial Tightness Indicator vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI SA Tighter financial conditions are starting to hit manufacturing sentiment and order flow. If the squeeze persists, the ISM Manufacturing PMI could weaken further, adding pressure to…

Net Flows into Global Equity Funds Global equity funds have enjoyed strong inflows this year, though weekly flows have grown noticeably more volatile in recent weeks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance in Midterm Years September has often been challenging for U.S. stocks in midterm years. But October and November have historically been the best months, with risk appetite usually returning as election uncertainty…

Largecap Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Large-cap equity positioning sits at the 65th percentile, modestly overweight but still cautious given the strength of earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation