Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock sits at 3.2%, a relatively elevated level, but the rise appears driven by hedging activity rather than…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a US recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs puts the odds closer to 25%,…
S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons,…
Crypto Fund Flows Crypto funds have suffered sustained outflows over the past month, with Bitcoin vehicles accounting for the bulk of the selling as investors step back from the space. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Positioning Overall equity positioning sits in the 65th percentile, pointing to a modest overweight. At the same time, crowding in large caps, especially tech, has intensified, leaving the market more fragile when momentum rolls…
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month The S&P 500 has never peaked in June. Every other month has done so at least once since 1950. If history holds, the market’s high may still be ahead,…
Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can…
CPI Computers, Periph and Others vs. Import Price (Leading Indicator) AI may put upward pressure on near-term CPI, especially in computers, peripherals and related electronics, as surging demand lifts the cost of chips, memory and…
The Math of Drawdowns – Recovery Requied to Break Even After a Portfolio Decline Cut a portfolio in half and you need to double it to break even. That is not bad luck, it is…
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains The bulls have history on their side. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S&P 500, like this year, has been followed…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move,…