U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.66% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has run for eight years and delivered a 288% gain. At just 3.5 years old and up roughly 100%, this rally…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 46th percentile, while discretionary investor positioning is at the 57th percentile, keeping the door open to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are pushing higher from the bottom of their longer-term trend channel against the S&P 500, with momentum still…

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is…

Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 faded during the latest rally, raising doubts about how much real strength sits behind the index.…

Weekly Change in Equity Positioning Investors piled into equities, driving one of the biggest weekly jumps in positioning on record. Such bursts often reflect a market gripped by FOMO. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Change in 12-Month Forward EPS for S&P Tech Sector Firms Nearly all of the year-to-date increase in S&P tech forward earnings traces back to SanDisk and Micron. Excluding those names, revisions look subdued and the…

MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving opposite to rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to rate swings, but as clarity returns, investors recalibrate and the market calms. It’s all about uncertainty,…

S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change vs. Annual Change in GAAP Earnings The S&P 500 tends to track corporate earnings, so strategies built on profit growth make sense for investors playing the long game. In…

Nasdaq-100 Win Streaks of 12 Days or More and Future Returns A 12-day winning streak has pushed the Nasdaq-100 into rare territory. History is on the bulls’ side with similar streaks leading to positive returns…