Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. stocks are turning more defensive as months of elevated interest rates cloud the growth outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In September, U.S. building permits declined to 1.400 million. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal…
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap positioning remains very light, sitting in the 16th percentile. Any pickup in investor interest could leave plenty of room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Broad Market Year-to-Date Performance Europe has plenty of problems and plenty of pessimists. But European assets have outperformed U.S. markets over the past two years. Sometimes markets don’t get the story right. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Returns During Midterm Election Years S&P 500 usually rallies after midterms, with gains building from months after the election into the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The equal-weight index trades at 16 times forward earnings, versus 19 times for the benchmark. It’s no bargain, but the valuation gap may give investors a more attractive entry…
Total Factor Productivity in the U.S. AI has not yet sparked an economy-wide productivity surge in the U.S.. Adjusted for utilization, total factor productivity growth was flat in Q2. Image: BCA Research
Estimated Contribution of Hyperscaler Capex to S&P 500 EPS Growth AI spending is still rising, but its boost to earnings is set to fade. Slower capex growth and higher depreciation will leave profits with less…
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt continues to roll over after climbing into the danger zone. That’s not the kind of turn bulls want to see, especially as risks across the…
U.S. Presidential Disapproval Rating With the midterm elections approaching, the president’s disapproval rating has climbed above 60%, a historically high level that leaves Republicans facing a serious political headwind. Image: BCA Research
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates for AI Hyperscalers Initial consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated AI hyperscalers’ capex growth in recent years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research