Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income Stocks now dominate household wealth. As a result, the equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the U.S. business cycle and a…
S&P 500 CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is trading at a Shiller CAPE ratio seen only during some of the market’s most expensive periods. That kind of optimism can…
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index fell 1% in July. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks still look expensive, but earnings growth is justifying the price tag. As long as the profit trend holds, that premium is more a…
Large Cap Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in large-cap consumer staples sits in the 13th percentile, with investors heavily underweight. Even a small lift in sentiment could be enough to spark a bounce. Image: Deutsche Bank…
S&P 500 ex. Energy Year/Year EPS Growth Q2 earnings were remarkably strong, with AI infrastructure stocks once again driving gains across the S&P 500. But beneath the headline strength, the earnings picture remains highly concentrated.…
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions.…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has pushed back into stretched territory as investors pile into higher-risk bets. Upside still exists, but crowded positioning raises the odds of a…
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since the start of 2022, European banks have outpaced U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. In a market obsessed with AI and the Magnificent Seven, it’s a rare twist. Image:…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still points to a constructive year for 2026, but the near-term path may be bumpy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal…
GS Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions excluding equities have tightened slightly, but the overall stance remains easy and supportive of growth rather than restrictive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research