Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ The AI trade has cooled, but the broader trend remains intact. Price action still looks typical of a momentum rally, setting up the possibility of another…
S&P 500 Annual Total Return by Change in Reported EPS Earnings drive corrections by severity, not direction. The deeper the earnings decline, the deeper the market decline. Every 20% market drop has arrived alongside a…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the S&P 500 has tended to post stronger returns in the second half of August than in the first. Could that pave the way for new all-time highs?…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks have priced in a lot of good news, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their historical averages. But momentum could keep the…
Estimated Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Credit markets are joining the AI buildout. What began as an equity story is now a credit one. Goldman Sachs strategists expect debt to fund 35% of hyperscalers’ capex by 2027.…
12-Month Forward ROE Ranges for Different MSCI Regions Higher ROE usually translates into stronger profits and a valuation premium, but U.S. equity multiples are driven just as much by growth, risk, liquidity, and investor sentiment.…
Share of S&P 500 by Weight Eligible to Repurchase Stock As S&P 500 companies emerge from earnings-related blackout periods, buyback activity is expected to resume by mid-August. That could offer some support to equities, but…
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High Record highs make many investors nervous. But history shows that buying into strength has often delivered better forward…
Ratio of Bitcoin to Production Cost Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to JPMorgan’s estimated $76,000 production cost, but the bank continues to see a bullish long-term path for the cryptocurrency. Image: J.P. Morgan…
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Strong U.S. earnings expectations and resilient corporate profits are keeping recession fears at bay and bolstering market optimism.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth Earnings growth at the median S&P 500 company is running at 14%, its strongest pace in four years, helped by AI demand and more confident CEO guidance. Image: Deutsche…