Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, slightly higher than…
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 This year, the Magnificent Seven are poised to post earnings growth of about 24%, twice the 12% projected for the rest of the S&P 500.…
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps…
Performance – S&P 500 Relative to MSCI All-World Ex-U.S. The S&P 500 underperformed global markets by 9.9% in dollar terms in 2025, its biggest lag since 2009, as U.S. tariffs bit and the AI trade…
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits Momentum is with the bulls. Each time the S&P 500 has sunk more than 15% and then closed the year with…
Price of Gold Forecast Analyst forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 cluster near record highs, with most expecting bullion to gain about 7%. A slower climb than last year’s rally and with forecasts…
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand…
S&P 500 Performance In January If a strong year for U.S. stocks ends without a December lift, January rarely follows a clear script. Image: Bloomberg