When recessions are occurring in the US?
When Do Recessions Occur in the US? Since 1948, recessions occur in the US after the unemployment rate is lower than the natural rate of unemployment (long-term), with a very high degree of confidence.
“I never attempt to make money on the stock market…” –Warren Buffett
“I never attempt to make money on the stock market…”–Warren Buffett “I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day…
2 Secrets to Beating the Market. Great Value Investor Joel Greenblatt Explains
2 Secrets to Beating the Market. Great Value Investor Joel Greenblatt Explains For a long-term diversified portfolio, Joel Greenblatt, great value investor and CIO of Gotham Asset management, would stick with the Vanguard Value ETF…
Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate
Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate…
Real Fed Funds Rate
Real Fed Funds Rate Real Fed funds rate is a key indicative factor, because it’s a very good measure of how tight or loose monetary policy is. Real Fed funds rate is the “true cost”…
The stock market vs. the economy explained
The stock market vs. the economy explained Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, explains the relationship between the stock market and the economy. His analogy is quite simple: the dog is the stock market…
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” –Benjamin Franklin
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” –Benjamin Franklin Knowledge helps you make much better decisions. As Albert Einstein said, “Once you stop learning, you start dying.”
Dalio Says U.S. Two Years From Downturn as Tax Cut Benefit Fades
Dalio Says U.S. Two Years From Downturn as Tax Cut Benefit Fades Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio speaks with Erik Schatzker about the next downturn and the impact of tax cuts. He also discusses debt…
Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data?
Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data? Nancy Tengler, Butcher Joseph Chief Investment Strategist, and Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer senior investment strategist, discuss the economic data. They are mixed, but that’s good news. Equities are going…
Yield Curve Inversion
Yield Curve Inversion A yield curve inversion is a necessary condition for a recession, but it is not a sufficient condition. We also need a widening of credit spreads and higher real interest rates. And…