Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad news. But that multiple alone does not make a crash inevitable. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Days in a Row without a 1% Drop Thirty-five trading days without a 1% decline have left the S&P 500 unusually calm. Historically, stretches of such low volatility have been more common in powerful bull markets than before major selloffs. Image: Carson Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex US hyperscalers are on track to spend $806 billion this year, with annual capex projected to reach $1.234 trillion by 2027. That kind of spending points to an AI infrastructure supercycle, not just another phase of cloud growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation Earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven global equities since 2025. That makes the rally more durable and less dependent on falling rates or a renewed surge in risk appetite. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Flows Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong this year. Bond demand has held up just as well, even as yields have climbed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Number of Rate Hikes per Fed Tightening Cycle, 1994 to 2023 Since 1994, the Fed has gone through six tightening cycles. Five lasted for years and involved at least six rate hikes. But with real rates already starting from historically high levels, this cycle may be much shorter. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Equities Performance Since the start of 2025, U.S. stocks have fallen behind other major markets, ending a long run of outperformance. A weaker dollar is giving international investors another reason to look beyond Wall Street. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate Path Implied by the Median Dots The Fed is signaling higher rates for longer, with a two-hike baseline for 2026, a 2029 median fed-funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a neutral rate of 3.25%. Long-duration assets and leveraged trades are now facing a tougher road. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.48% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S. equities remain an income-oriented market. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too rich. Image: Real Investment Advice