S&P 500 Price Reaction to Previous Military Escalations The headlines may be dramatic, but the market impact is likely to be muted. U.S. equities wobble at first, then settle once investors refocus on fundamentals. In the end, short-term jitters rarely outweigh strong fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity expanded in March for the third straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing Index hitting 52.7 and beating forecasts for 52.5. That’s a good sign of momentum in the industrial sector. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500…
AAII Asset Allocation In February, U.S. retail investors dumped stocks, shifted into bonds, and cut cash holdings to their lowest since late 2021 as confidence in equities faded and markets braced for a bumpier spring. Image: Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 – Performance of Largest 10 Stocks vs. Next 40 Stocks The S&P 500’s top 10 giants are lagging the next 40 stocks this year, contributing to the cap-weighted index’s weak gains amid high concentration. Concentration helps on the way up, but it hurts when leaders stumble. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Quantitative…
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World War II. Staying invested often pays off after the dust settles. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 1500 Software & Services Median Shorts Short bets on software stocks have climbed to their highest level since the GFC, even as many firms keep turning in solid revenue growth. That crowding could spark painful squeeze rallies if the group starts to recover. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
S&P 500 Dispersion While the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, the action under the hood tells a different story: the realized volatility spread between the average S&P 500 stock and the index has reached its highest level on record. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events often rattle markets, but history shows U.S. stocks usually bounce back and push higher as investors look beyond the turmoil, showing that patience remains the winning trade. Image: Carson Investment Research
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is any guide, keeping that edge will be tough. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research