Performance – Bloomberg U.S. 500 Ex Mag 7 Index vs. FTSE All-World Ex U.S. Index The AI boom remains a U.S. mega-cap story for now, leaving the global balance mostly untouched. Image: Bloomberg
Share Repurchases vs. U.S. Stock Market Returns Corporate buybacks and market returns move in tandem. With roughly $5 billion a day in share repurchases, U.S. companies are keeping a solid bid under equities and softening every selloff. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s end in the first year of a presidential cycle, December has never missed and kept the rally going with an…
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Drawdown Bitcoin was down more than 30% from its October peak. For most assets that would be a crash, but for Bitcoin it’s a familiar kind of turbulence, sharp yet within its usual volatility range. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late next year, a sign that liquidity is finally loosening again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Global Market Capitalization With 64% of global equities, the United States still sets the tempo in world finance, drawing capital and dictating market moods from New York to Tokyo. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator The Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator has dropped back to zero, marking a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 December Returns The S&P 500 lost ground last December, but two red Decembers in a row are rare. That track record may give bulls hope for a Santa Claus rally and a strong finish to the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity lost more steam in November, with the ISM Manufacturing Index slipping to 48.2 versus expectations for 49.0, marking another month of contraction and persistent industrial weakness. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change,…