Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.80%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
S&P 500 Dispersion While the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, the action under the hood tells a different story: the realized volatility spread between the average S&P 500 stock and the index has reached its highest level on record. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events often rattle markets, but history shows U.S. stocks usually bounce back and push higher as investors look beyond the turmoil, showing that patience remains the winning trade. Image: Carson Investment Research
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is any guide, keeping that edge will be tough. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical markets overseas, pointing to brighter days for the global cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is betting on a resilient U.S. economy, projecting growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, both ahead of consensus, as easing inflation and steady hiring keep the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows Investors can’t seem to get enough of U.S. stocks. Net inflows in 2025 topped an amount equal to about 2% of GDP, an intensity the market hasn’t seen in years. Clearly, investors still see plenty of upside in U.S. equities. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally In the days following “Liberation Day,” the odds of a sharp rally were high. Now, the balance has flipped: drawdown risk feels heavier, and equity asymmetry reflects a classic late-cycle mood. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research