Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock stands at 3.2%, elevated but consistent with hedging flows rather than a bearish conviction trade, and still short of signaling a market inflection. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is now sitting at a Shiller CAPE level that has only shown up during the market’s priciest episodes. History points to real annualized returns in the -3.8% to -1.4% range over the next 10 years. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuations – S&P 500 Sector Forward P/E Energy remains the market’s valuation laggard, while Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Staples are already priced for a lot of optimism. Image: The Daily Shot
Large Cap Healthcare Positioning Large-cap healthcare positioning sits at the 55th percentile, just above neutral and far from crowded, leaving room for buyers to add. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
G7 Budget Deficits, Share of GDP The U.S. is running by far the largest budget deficit among G7 economies when measured relative to GDP, and projections show little improvement over the next few years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs The U.S. macro picture remains solid for now, reinforcing the optimism spreading across Wall Street. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. 10s30s and 20Y to 30Y Buybacks Buybacks are starting to look like fiscal QE, with the Treasury flooding the system with short‑term debt to fund the deficit. The problem is that rising yields are draining that liquidity almost as fast as it arrives. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Real Growth of $1 in U.S. Stocks Since 1871, U.S. stocks have spent about three out of every four months below a previous peak. The trend line goes up, but the typical investor experience is more red ink than new highs. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Abnormal Returns The market keeps rewarding the stubborn. For more than 25 years, U.S. equities have brushed off one wave of bad news after another. Bull markets don’t wait for the headlines to improve. They climb, one worry at a time. Image: Marketwatch
Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Tech demand is showing the first faint signs of a pause. It’s far too early to call a change in trend, but investors are cautiously starting to rotate into cyclicals and defensives. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors have begun punishing U.S. sectors perceived as most exposed to AI-driven automation, even when those companies still show steady fundamentals, while rewarding the companies supplying the tools behind the boom. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research