ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing cooled slightly in September. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.5, below expectations of 55.0, but remained in expansion territory for the ninth straight month. Growth remains on solid footing. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver 57% earnings growth this year, more than double the 23% expected for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech still running hot, betting against them looks like a losing trade. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Monthly Performance in Midterm Election Years Since 1950, October has been the best month for midterm years, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher 74% of the time. Is it time to be bullish? Bearish sentiment already dominates, setting up a potential year-end rally. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 413K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are more defensive on U.S. rates, while equity investors remain confident that stocks will stay relatively calm. That growing disconnect is not necessarily a bearish signal, but it is a warning worth monitoring. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Semiconductor Gross Margins The S&P 500’s leading AI semiconductor companies have enjoyed a powerful expansion in gross margins during the last few years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Long-Term S&P 500 Growth Expectations The market-implied long-term growth expectation for the S&P 500 is currently +10%, above the historical average but nothing like the dot-com bubble excess. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns October has a strong track record in midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain since 1950 and finishing higher nearly 74% of the time. With investors already leaning bearish, that seasonal tailwind could help fuel a year-end rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
Contribution to Consensus S&P 500 EPS Growth Strong 2026 earnings growth has helped bring down the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple. Consensus expects growth to cool in 2027 and 2028, but slower earnings growth alone is not a sell signal. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown Drawdown risk for the S&P 500 has increased recently, amid rising yields, looming rate hikes, and weak market breadth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Hyperscaler Forward P/E Valuations for the hyperscalers have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit at their lowest level in 10 years. They’re still not a bargain, but the risk‑reward looks much more balanced. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research