Category: Blog

S&P 500 Return During July July has been kind to U.S. stocks, rising for 11 straight years and delivering an average gain of 3.2%. Can the streak continue? Image: Carson Investment Research

Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are on pace for 38% earnings growth this year, versus 19% for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech momentum still running hot, betting against them looks like a tough trade. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Into Earnings Seasons Consensus S&P 500 earnings growth heading into Q2 stands at 26.2%, a record for a pre-reporting period outside recession recoveries, driven in large part by tech strength. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Revision to Consensus Hyperscaler Year/Year Capex Growth 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000 – YTD Change in Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500’s year-to-date total return has been driven entirely by earnings growth, while the Russell 2000’s advance has come roughly half from multiple expansion and half from earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing picked up speed in July. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.6, beating expectations of 54 and notching a seventh straight month of expansion. Momentum is building across the industrial sector. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500…

S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Growth Expectations Analysts have rarely been this bullish on S&P 500 earnings heading into Q2 2026, a level typically seen only after recessions or at the start of a new cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Gross Proceeds from U.S. IPOs At midyear, 2026 has already matched 2021’s full-year record, with roughly $120 billion raised in U.S. IPOs. The window is wide open, but keeping that momentum through year-end will not be easy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The rebound in global growth has been the central macro story of 2026. But the tone is shifting, as firmer inflation brings rate hikes back into the conversation. Leading indicators now point to a different backdrop for 2027. Image: Topdown Charts

Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Equal-weight S&P 500 prices and EPS have risen steadily together. Earnings are still doing the heavy lifting, but the gains are uneven and increasingly concentrated in a handful of companies and sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss can pull everything down. Image: Real Investment Advice