Margin Debt as % of U.S. Nominal GDP NYSE margin debt exceeding $1.1 trillion, near record highs relative to nominal GDP, signals rapid investor re-leveraging and heightened volatility risk, though not necessarily implying an imminent market crash. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Expanding Share of Global Foreign Exchange + Gold Reserve Holdings With gold now making up 30% of global foreign exchange and gold reserves, the metal is stealing back the spotlight—a clear sign of how fragile faith in fiat has become. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Intraday Returns – NY Cash Trading Hours vs. Overnight Trading U.S.-daytime volatility’s resurgence reflects renewed market focus on American macro developments, with global investors avoiding illiquid overnight hours—a behavior typically seen after major geopolitical or policy events. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Oil Prices in Euros Oil’s recent slide, fueled by rising OPEC output, is deepening bearish sentiment across energy markets and cooling the inflation pulse that guides monetary policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and Stoxx600 – Q3 2025 Reporting Season Calendar About 16% of S&P 500 firms report earnings this week, but the real test comes next week, with roughly 44% set to deliver results—a pivotal moment that could set the tone for the rest of the season. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and VIX Closes Down 25% from Intraday Peak Good news for bulls: big fear fades, stocks surge. Each time the VIX finished more than 25% off its intraday high, the S&P 500 was higher six and twelve months later—no exceptions. Since 1990, average one‑year gain: 15%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Seasonality If history is any guide, the S&P 500 is heading into its seasonally strong window, with October through December typically delivering the market’s best performance of the year. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth The median S&P 500 company EPS growth is expected to climb about 7% in Q4 2025, a sign of firmer earnings momentum and a more upbeat near‑term outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Weekly Change in Equity Positioning Equity positioning saw its sharpest weekly pullback since “Liberation Day” in April—a dip many traders were quick to buy. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth Discretionary investors are betting on an earnings downturn that looks increasingly out of sync with the data. If that pessimism fades, risk appetite could roar back fast and push equities higher. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets History favors the bulls: since 1950, only once has an S&P 500 bull market ended in its fourth year—history therefore favors further upside over a transition to bear market. Image: Carson Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge