S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation Correlations in the S&P 500 are sinking, turning the market from one big macro trade into a stock picker’s playground where fundamentals finally matter again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Historical Length of Recoveries and Subsequent Market Declines Every U.S. expansion since 1871 has hit a wall, and markets have stumbled hard each time. The current bull run, born out of the March 2020 lows, will be no exception—only a matter of when, not if. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs is calling for 6.5% annualized gains in the S&P 500 over the next ten years — not bad, but hardly without risk, given stretched valuations and shaky macro undercurrents. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Capitalization of the Largest Stock Relative to the 75th Percentile Stock U.S. stocks are more top-heavy than at any point in nearly a century, with mega-cap tech driving the charge. The dominance is juicing index gains—but also flashing warnings on risk and concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 30-Day Correlation Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has surged to multi-year highs, but as macro conditions shift and the crypto market matures, its link to traditional equities could start to loosen. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 vs. Gold and S&P 500 vs. Bonds (Total Return) U.S. stocks look pricey next to bonds—but measured against gold, it’s not mania, it’s money insurance. Investors are hedging debasement and inflation, not chasing a 2000-style bubble. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
200-Day Correlation Between S&P 500 and Gold Spot Gold’s old reputation as a crisis hedge is looking dated. The metal is increasingly trading like a risk asset, tracking U.S. equities as a declining dollar and heavy central-bank demand reshape its place in global markets. Image: Bloomberg
Rolling 90-Day Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. IG Credit Spreads Credit and equities are back in sync: the 90‑day correlation between U.S. IG credit spreads and the S&P 500 has spiked, a sign that macro forces and market mood now bind the two tighter than before. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equities – 10-Year Forward Annualized Total Returns in Local Currency Despite historically high valuations that could cap gains, Goldman Sachs forecasts robust global equity returns, led by Emerging Markets and Asia, which are expected to deliver the strongest growth over the next 10 years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Liquidity Liquidity remains abundant. But once conditioned to buy every dip, investors since 2022 have stopped watching liquidity and started trading Fed whispers—betting more on signals than on fundamentals. Image: Real Investment Advice
CTAs Exposure to Gold CTAs have cut back on gold, but they’re still net long — the bulls aren’t giving up yet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation