Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 April tends to smile on U.S. equities. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% rise for the month. But this year’s Middle East conflict has clouded that sunny seasonal trend. Image: Topdown Charts
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is any guide, keeping that edge will be tough. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical markets overseas, pointing to brighter days for the global cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is betting on a resilient U.S. economy, projecting growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, both ahead of consensus, as easing inflation and steady hiring keep the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows Investors can’t seem to get enough of U.S. stocks. Net inflows in 2025 topped an amount equal to about 2% of GDP, an intensity the market hasn’t seen in years. Clearly, investors still see plenty of upside in U.S. equities. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally In the days following “Liberation Day,” the odds of a sharp rally were high. Now, the balance has flipped: drawdown risk feels heavier, and equity asymmetry reflects a classic late-cycle mood. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors are punishing U.S. sectors most exposed to AI‑driven automation, betting that vulnerable business models will struggle to keep pace, despite steady fundamentals. Automation’s shockwaves are reshaping entire sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Later in 2026, hyperscalers are expected to ease capex growth, a shift that could drag on valuations but also leave them vulnerable in the supply-strained fight for AI dominance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In December, U.S. building permits rose to 1.448 million. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Congressional Budget Office Forecast of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The Congressional Budget Office sees the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edging higher over the next few years as swelling federal debt puts upward pressure on borrowing costs. Deficits have a price. Image: Deutsche Bank