Category: Blog

Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets Why do bear markets matter? Because most of the gains of an inflation-adjusted bull run can be erased when the next downturn hits. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Bull Markets Eight years and 288% gains—that’s on average the bull market playbook over the past 50 years. As today’s bull market enters its third year, there’s reason to believe the party is far from over. Image: Carson Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs sees a 30% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year—higher than the long-run norm, but still pointing to only moderate downside risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Contribution of Sector Groups to S&P 500 Earnings Growth MCG and Tech have all but carried the market lately, fueling nearly 90% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth. Wall Street’s climb is still a tech‑powered story, with breadth across other sectors stubbornly missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Large Cap Equity Positioning Markets overall are far from stretched, but in large-cap equities, positioning has climbed to the 82nd percentile, where momentum in big-name stocks is clearly picking up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Change in Consensus EPS Big Tech still runs the show—2026 earnings forecasts are racing higher for the giants, while the rest of the S&P 493 trail behind in their shadow. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 earnings accelerating, forecasting growth to climb from 9.3% last quarter to 10.7% in Q3, boosted by supportive macro trends and strong company performances—well ahead of the more cautious consensus. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Index and Barclays Equity Timing Indicator Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator—a gauge of 19 market and economic signals—is tilting bullish, implying an 82% chance the S&P 500 rises over the next two months, with past setups since 2015 delivering roughly 4% on average. Image: Bloomberg

Small Cap Equity Positioning Investors have been piling into small-cap stocks in recent weeks, with positioning jumping to a neutral 48th percentile—still leaving plenty of room for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Returns when New Highs Are Made in August, September, and October History is on the bulls’ side: whenever the S&P 500 has hit new highs in August, September, and October, the fourth quarter has never finished in the red since 1950—a track record market participants can’t ignore. Image: Carson Investment Research

Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg