Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 13%, market-implied recession odds for the next year are below the long-term average, pointing to a supportive risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Seasonal Composite Midterm Election Year The S&P 500 Seasonal Composite still points to more upside for 2026, but the path could get choppy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August to early October. Image: Nautilus Research
Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Wall Street keeps underestimating the scale of hyperscalers’ AI spending. What looked like a temporary surge is turning into a multiyear race for data centers, chips, networking capacity and power. Image: BCA Research
3-Month Peak to Trough Decline in Hedge Fund Gross Leverage Hedge funds cut exposure aggressively in July, triggering one of the sharpest de-grossing episodes of the past decade and a steep selloff in their most popular positions, particularly in AI, semiconductor and momentum stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock stands at 3.2%, elevated but consistent with hedging flows rather than a bearish conviction trade, and still short of signaling a market inflection. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is now sitting at a Shiller CAPE level that has only shown up during the market’s priciest episodes. History points to real annualized returns in the -3.8% to -1.4% range over the next 10 years. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuations – S&P 500 Sector Forward P/E Energy remains the market’s valuation laggard, while Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Staples are already priced for a lot of optimism. Image: The Daily Shot
Large Cap Healthcare Positioning Large-cap healthcare positioning sits at the 55th percentile, just above neutral and far from crowded, leaving room for buyers to add. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
G7 Budget Deficits, Share of GDP The U.S. is running by far the largest budget deficit among G7 economies when measured relative to GDP, and projections show little improvement over the next few years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs The U.S. macro picture remains solid for now, reinforcing the optimism spreading across Wall Street. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. 10s30s and 20Y to 30Y Buybacks Buybacks are starting to look like fiscal QE, with the Treasury flooding the system with short‑term debt to fund the deficit. The problem is that rising yields are draining that liquidity almost as fast as it arrives. Image: Bloomberg