S&P 500 Price Rebased to Sept 1 = 100 of Each Midterm Years Midterm years tend to weigh on stocks, and September deserves extra care. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1.5% from Sept. 1 to its low, which tends to arrive in early October. Image: BCA Research
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
AAII Asset Allocation U.S. retail investors turned more optimistic into August, lifting their stock allocation to a year-to-date high of 71.1%. For this crowd, it’s a vote of confidence in equities. Image: Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up controlling Congress and how that reshapes taxes, regulation and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation – The Shiller CAPE Since 1881 The S&P 500’s CAPE ratio has climbed to levels seen only in the market’s priciest episodes, when the next decade typically delivered negative real returns. History says this time is unlikely to be an exception. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – 10 Best September Returns Ever September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, but midterm election years have delivered some of the strongest Septembers on record. All four of the best September returns ever occurred in midterm years. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity is still in negative territory, and that’s bad news for U.S. stocks over the next three to six months. As the liquidity backdrop fades, equities lose a crucial support. Image: Bloomberg
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing cooled slightly in August. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.6, below expectations of 55.6 and marking an eighth straight month of expansion. Growth is still on solid footing. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year…
Leveraged Fund Positions in NASDAQ-100 Futures Bears are piling into Nasdaq‑100 futures. Short positions have surged 35% since mid‑June and are now near record levels, setting up a sharp squeeze if momentum turns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs’ overall bond allocation has slid to the 5th percentile, signaling almost zero appetite for rates risk. Fixed income is firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Cumulative flows into cryptocurrency funds have flipped positive for the first time since May 2026, driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutions are stepping back in, and risk appetite is picking up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation