Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings remain strong. Short-term fear rarely changes the long-term story. Image: Real Investment Advice
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for 2026 easing has risen significantly. Cuts aren’t off the table, just harder to justify now. Image: The Daily Shot
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings has cooled slightly in recent weeks but remains positive overall amid ongoing optimistic outlooks for the full year. The optimism is still there, but a bit more measured now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has often mirrored free cash flow trends closely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance vs. EM and DM Ex-U.S. Equities Since the Middle East conflict began, the S&P 500 has left global peers behind, outperforming both emerging and developed ex‑U.S. markets. Investors still see the U.S. as a relatively safe haven amid the turmoil. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities and Wars Some major geopolitical events have knocked U.S. stocks down 15% or more before. Is this time different? For now, markets look like they’re pricing in hope, not fear. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Futures vs. Brent Crude Oil S&P 500 futures and Brent crude oil have moved in tandem lately, but the correlation has softened this week. Are markets breaking away from oil prices? Maybe investors are focusing more on rates and earnings than commodities now. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate vs. Gasoline Price / Core CPI When gasoline prices rise faster than inflation and move in step with growth, the Fed tends to lift rates. But what is the determining factor this time: strong demand or deep strain? It’s clearly the latter. Image: TS Lombard
VIX vs. S&P 500 Compared with past oil shocks, the S&P 500’s drop looks measured. Investors seem braced for short-term turbulence rather than a structural shift in sentiment. The pullback feels more like caution than panic. Image: BCA Research
Bloomberg Dollar Index One-Month Risk Reversals Currency markets are turning defensive, as demand for dollar upside and protection against violent swings gains pace amid Middle East tensions. Few things spook investors like uncertainty, and the greenback remains their safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. The hit to output looks modest given how sharp the oil price swing is. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…