S&P 500 Earnings Revision Breadth The relationship isn’t perfect, but S&P 500 EPS revision breadth has often led market moves, showing a strong historical link with the index’s six‑month trailing returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Model-Predicted P/E Ratio U.S. equities look expensive relative to both their own history and what today’s macro backdrop would normally justify. In past cycles, such stretches of pricey valuations have often been followed by years of subpar returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Wall Street’s outlook for 2026 is bright, with analysts eyeing a 15% rise in S&P 500 earnings. While forecasts sound promising, markets often have surprises in store. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator stays high, showing confidence remains strong across the market’s major players. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sector Weights in the S&P 500 U.S. defensive sectors, excluding pharma and biotech, remain near their lowest share of the S&P 500 since 1990, even after a tech-led rotation nudged investors to trim some of their technology exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank
Factset S&P 500 Annual Bottom Up EPS Actual and Estimates Forecast upgrades for 2026 and 2027 keep rolling in, giving the S&P 500 another reason to push higher. The bulls still have the wind at their backs, and momentum isn’t showing any signs of slowing. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuations – 12-Month Fwd P/E Multiple. Worldscope Europe Sector Indices If you look at today’s valuation at 16.8x P/E and consensus revenues growth at around 9% annually, the risk of a slowdown in Software & IT Services is at least partly priced in already. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Earnings growth in MCG and Tech is still outpacing the rest of the S&P 500 by a wide margin, which is not surprising given their strong fundamentals and innovation momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Traders still bet on two 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026, assuming the economy keeps its footing and inflation stays tame. Image: The Daily Shot
Nasdaq After the Netscape IPO and ChatGPT Came Out It’s not unusual for U.S. tech to lag in the third year after a big innovation, with the post‑Netscape years offering a perfect textbook case. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – Software Forward P/E Software valuations have come under heavy pressure, with the forward P/E multiple sliding to 20 times, a level investors haven’t seen since 2014. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research