Category: Blog

CTAs Exposure to Gold CTAs have cut back on gold, but they’re still net long — the bulls aren’t giving up yet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg

Gold vs. S&P 500 Gold is keeping pace with the S&P 500, defying the long-standing pattern of equity dominance in the fiat era and reasserting its appeal as a hedge against market and currency risk. Image: BCA Research

Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The rebound in the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth suggests the rally has room to run, with broader participation hinting at strategic rotations rather than structural weakness. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Share Buyback Announcements Bulls are right to smile: At $6–7 billion a day through year-end, U.S. corporate buybacks are the market’s invisible hand—lifting prices and muting every attempt at a selloff. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio By the Shiller CAPE’s measure, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere — the kind that’s thrilled investors on the way up, and burned them on the way down. It’s a level that has often meant thinner returns and rising risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Equity Returns It’s not a bubble—at least not yet. But with AI money flooding in and U.S. companies rethinking how they raise and spend cash, investors can’t afford to ignore valuations, balance sheets, or results. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns into Year-End Following >15% Through October When Wall Street catches fire, it usually keeps burning. In years when the S&P 500 has already surged more than 15% by late October, it has added another 4.7% on average through year‑end—winning 20 out of 21 times since 1950. Image: Truist

S&P 500 Profit Margins The S&P 500 has never been more profitable — profit margins are at record highs and projected to expand further through 2026, fueling hopes for robust market returns. Image: BCA Research

Average Equity Fund Flow by Calendar Month Over the Past Decade Excluding U.S. Election Years History says year-end momentum has legs: outside U.S. election years, equity flows spike in December and stay strong through Q1—adding weight to the case for retail strength through early 2026. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity

Performance of a Basket of Stocks with the Most Net Call Volume in the Previous Week The latest U.S.-China trade escalation is a reminder of how fast momentum-driven strategies can crumble once volatility resurfaces and the market’s mood turns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation