Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite is flagging 2026 as a bullish but choppy year, and for now, the market is playing along with that seasonal script. Image: Ned Davis Research
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in December. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 16%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
S&P 500 and Equity ETF Flows Equity ETFs remain money magnets, pulling in about $5.6 billion a day since the start of the year, up from $3.5 billion in 2025. Flows don’t lie: risk appetite is alive and well. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Equity Sector Flows Investors are rotating out of high-growth tech stocks, where outflows have accelerated on overvaluation fears, and back into defensive and “old economy” sectors. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are calm, systematic strategies often stay heavily long equities to capture steady gains, a stance that can sting once volatility returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. earnings as growth concerns deepen, raising the risk of near-term pressure on stock valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. M2 Money Supply With M2 up 4.27% year on year, the money supply is lagging behind economic growth, pointing to cooling inflation rather than trouble. Image: Real Investment Advice
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return Since 1950, U.S. stocks have typically shone under a split Congress, posting an average annual gain of 15.1% as investors embrace the political gridlock that keeps sweeping policy changes in check. Image: Carson Investment Research
Markets – Average Daily Change: SPY, TLT, LQD, HYG, IBIT Is “Sell America” becoming the new market mantra? Europe could rattle investors if it strikes back with tariffs and its own trade bazooka. Image: Bloomberg
Bond Fund Flows (Last 4 Weeks) Bond funds keep drawing strong inflows as investors look for yield and stability in a world of moderating inflation and lingering uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation