S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls are still smiling. Historically, the S&P 500 has found its sweet spot from the fourth quarter of a president’s second year through the second quarter of the third year, a roughly nine-month window. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 takes a hit of about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they have been rewarded over time: the index finished higher in 35 of the past 46 years. That’s the price investors pay for long-term gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums Stocks in the U.S. and Japan offer investors little compensation for the extra risk they carry relative to bonds. That makes equities a tougher sell and leaves them vulnerable to disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity expanded in October. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.5, beating expectations of 54.5 and notching a tenth straight month of expansion. The sector remains on firm footing. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver 57% earnings growth this year, more than double the 23% expected for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech still running hot, betting against them looks like a losing trade. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Monthly Performance in Midterm Election Years Since 1950, October has been the best month for midterm years, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher 74% of the time. Is it time to be bullish? Bearish sentiment already dominates, setting up a potential year-end rally. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 413K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are more defensive on U.S. rates, while equity investors remain confident that stocks will stay relatively calm. That growing disconnect is not necessarily a bearish signal, but it is a warning worth monitoring. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Semiconductor Gross Margins The S&P 500’s leading AI semiconductor companies have enjoyed a powerful expansion in gross margins during the last few years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Long-Term S&P 500 Growth Expectations The market-implied long-term growth expectation for the S&P 500 is currently +10%, above the historical average but nothing like the dot-com bubble excess. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contribution to Consensus S&P 500 EPS Growth Strong 2026 earnings growth has helped bring down the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple. Consensus expects growth to cool in 2027 and 2028, but slower earnings growth alone is not a sell signal. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research