Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below the long-term average, keeping the risk backdrop relatively subdued. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism and backed by confident management guidance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Sector Flows Money continues to pour into industrials, energy and materials, underscoring the ongoing tilt toward cyclical plays. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May – October) May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for the S&P 500, but the track record tells a different story. Over the past decade, the index has finished that period in the red just once, which should keep bulls comfortable. Image: Carson Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment has climbed back to pre-war levels, with risk appetite improving, volatility easing, and flows shifting decisively into riskier assets. The mood is improving, but not yet euphoric. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits at just the 32nd percentile, still underweight and nowhere near crowded, which keeps upside potential intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally is still being driven by infrastructure winners, with chip giants, data center builders and cloud platforms cashing in while software and productivity names lag behind. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Since Start of the Year AI is no longer just a buzzword lifting mega-cap names, it is actively driving earnings growth and boosting productivity across corporate America. Since the start of the Q1 reporting season, the S&P 500 has gained 5.1%. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Tech Sector Share Buyback Announcements There’s no sign of a pause in U.S. tech buybacks, as strong earnings keep the pipeline active. That’s a tailwind for shareholders, and as long as profits hold up, the pace is unlikely to fade. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research