Volatility – VIX vs. VIXEQ Single-stock volatility is rising faster than the VIX as leadership rotates from tech toward energy names and companies tied to real assets. Volatility beneath the surface says more about market uncertainty than the VIX right now. Image: Bloomberg
Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over 10pp to 9pp, leaving inflation and growth forecasts largely untouched. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly fell in January to 389K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Yearly Returns The lesson from the “10 best days” rule is blunt: market timing rarely shows mercy. Miss those standout days in the S&P 500 each year and, instead of gains, your portfolio would have slipped roughly 15% a year since 1990! Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuations – MSCI Index Market Capitalization Relative to M2 U.S. market capitalization has rocketed since late 2022, pushing valuations to levels that M2 growth can’t justify on its own. There’s more at play now than just liquidity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Win Streaks If February ends in the green, the Dow would notch 10 straight monthly gains, a streak seen only a handful of times since 1900. That strength says plenty about the market’s staying power. Image: Carson Investment Research
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has delivered returns far above its historical norm over the past three years, but such strength will be hard to repeat given where valuations stand. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
DM Manufacturing PMI vs. Global Central Bank Decision Index This year’s key macro theme is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for a fresh wave of economic momentum. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax cuts and deregulation faded fast as trade-war fears took center stage. Image: Bloomberg