Evolution of S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Optimism is building on Wall Street. Analysts have lifted their S&P 500 bottom-up earnings forecasts for Q2 2026, betting on stronger corporate profit momentum through the year. It’s encouraging to see sentiment turning more positive. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Return After Recapturing 200-Day Moving Average From Below History favors the bulls: when the S&P 500 has dropped below and regained its 200‑day moving average since 2000, it has averaged a 15% rally in the following 12 months. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns In April Even with the Middle East conflict clouding the seasonal backdrop, April has historically been a strong month for U.S. equities, averaging positive returns since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Equity Positioning and S&P 500 EPS Growth Equity positioning is bracing for a sharp earnings slowdown, but recent data are undermining that story. If the gloom fades, risk appetite may rebound fast and lift stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility – VIX Index The VIX dropping below 20 signals fading market jitters and a steadier tone, typically a tailwind for equities as calmer volatility expectations often accompany rising stock prices. Lower volatility tends to invite buyers back in. Image: MarketDesk Research
S&P 500 Performance After 6-Day Win Streaks and Up 6% Six days up in a row and a 6% surge: history says that combo often bodes well for U.S. stocks, with median 12-month gains of 18% since 1950, enough to keep the bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns History shows that when consumer confidence sinks, stocks often rebound, turning gloom into a launchpad for gains. It’s the familiar rhythm of fear giving way to fresh optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank is turning more bullish on corporate America. Backed by a supportive macro backdrop, it sees S&P 500 earnings growth coming in strong at 19.2% for Q1, comfortably ahead of consensus. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuations – Software vs. World ex. TMT and Technology vs. World TMT Valuations in global tech and software have narrowed sharply, with forward P/Es at their lowest level relative to world equities in more than five years. That could mark a buying window, assuming earnings momentum stays intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge