S&P 500 Equal Weight Index vs. S&P 500 Index – Two-Year Performance Spread Investors’ rush from tech to value has driven one of the deepest performance gaps between the market-cap and equal-weighted indexes since the pandemic era. After years in the shadows, value stocks are finally getting some love. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Corp Investment Grade All Sectors OAS A widening OAS for investment grade debt is typically a bearish signal for U.S. equities. That’s not what stock bulls want to see. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors’ risk appetite for equities has cooled recently but stays in positive territory amid ongoing market swings. Sentiment has definitely softened, but bulls haven’t left the room. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Inflation may feel abstract, but its impact isn’t: History shows the U.S. dollar has lost about 90% of its purchasing power since 1966. Only assets that outpace rising prices, such as stocks, can keep investors ahead. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Inflation: 1970 vs. Today The modern economy shows greater resilience to inflation pressures compared to the 1970s, but whether it avoids stagflation depends on how long the current geopolitical conflict lasts. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Geopolitical tensions are clouding sentiment among U.S. equity fund managers in March, but confidence in the market and the economy remains intact, as many bet the shock will be short-lived. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
U.S. Public Opinion on Military Action in Iran Rising U.S. gasoline prices, together with the pushback against strikes on Iran, could push policymakers toward a brief and contained conflict. Image: J.P. Morgan
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch above the long-term average, pointing to a relatively calm risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation