The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Estimates The earnings fundamentals for the S&P 500 provide a solid foundation for a cautiously optimistic market outlook heading into 2026, with accelerating growth expected to drive further gains in equities. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Post Election Year for S&P 500 The S&P 500 has modestly declined for four days, reflecting typical post-election uncertainty. Historically, US stocks usually bottom by late October in post-election years, before rallying into year-end. Image: Carson Investment Research
VIX Seasonality At this time of year, volatility usually rises, driven by a mix of market expectations, macroeconomic data, and seasonal investor behavior. Image: Topdown Charts
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Although short interest in the S&P 500 has risen sharply in recent months—indicating increased investor caution—it does not currently signal widespread bearishness or panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equities – Global Valuation Range While the U.S.–non-U.S. valuation gap is unusually wide, non-U.S. valuations remain close to their historical norms. As a result, international markets offer comparatively better value than the U.S., despite not being historically cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While positive earnings revisions have been strong recently, this momentum is likely to slow, though it probably won’t fall below the usual historical trend of downward revisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The unusually high divergence of current earnings from their long-term growth trend often precedes significant market corrections or reversals, suggesting that investors face elevated risks despite prevailing optimism. Image: Real Investment Advice
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in July. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Robust earnings beats and notable revenue surprises—particularly among large tech and mega-cap companies—along with easing tariff concerns and steady economic indicators, have driven positive earnings sentiment in the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research