S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is climbing into the danger zone that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into levels last seen at major market tops. The bulls still run the show, but even a modest pullback could turn ugly fast. Image: Topdown Charts
Sector Fund Flows Despite the selloff, semiconductors have seen heavy inflows over the past few weeks. That looks more like dip buying than broad risk aversion. Will it last? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI ACWI 12-Month Forward EPS With global stocks priced for perfection and ACWI earnings expectations stretched, it looks prudent to take some risk off the table. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is trading at a Shiller CAPE ratio seen only during some of the market’s most expensive periods. That kind of optimism can weigh on real returns in the years ahead, creating a difficult backdrop for risk assets. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – Net Debit Balances in NYSE Margin Accountsge The ongoing investor deleveraging wave since June is a near-term headwind for U.S. equities, especially in technology and high-beta momentum stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector Tech outperformance has been unusually strong and unusually long, marking one of the most concentrated, longest-running spells of sector leadership in recent market history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years could bring slimmer returns. These are outstanding businesses, but valuation still matters. Even the best names can disappoint if you pay too much. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds For two straight months, crypto funds have faced relentless outflows, with Bitcoin vehicles taking the heaviest hits. Now the flow picture is improving as buyers step back in. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Real Revenue per Employee AI is already lifting productivity in some tasks. Over time, that could mean more sales per employee. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rolling 20-Week Correlations of the S&P 500 to the Usual Havens During this decade’s market shocks, traditional havens have too often failed to hedge, frustrating investors who assumed they would shield portfolios. The takeaway: diversification has to be multidimensional and adaptive. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Broad Money (M2) After shrinking in 2022 and 2023, U.S. M2 growth has continued to expand. That’s good news for nominal spending and asset prices, but it also brings the familiar inflation question back into focus if money growth and velocity both stay hot. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond