S&P 500 – Aggregate Net Profit Margin, 1999-2026, Against Its Long-Run Average S&P 500 margins have moved up and stayed up, sitting around 60% above the long-term average. The question isn’t if that’s lofty, but how long today’s structural tailwinds can keep margins from sliding back toward the mean. Image: Real Investment Advice
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates continue to surprise to the upside. Hyperscaler spending is now set to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027, pointing to a trajectory that looks more like a new era than a standard investment cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a month is a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equities look expensive by almost any historical measure, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their long-term averages. But if momentum holds, the rally may have further to run. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections U.S. stocks often stall before midterm elections, with volatility picking up, but returns tend to strengthen after the vote as policy uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs This year, U.S. ISM PMIs have picked up sharply, finally catching the earlier surge in earnings-revisions momentum. The cyclical upturn is now underway. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings growth has surged far beyond what U.S. GDP growth would historically justify, sparking debate over whether this is a temporary overshoot or the start of a new earnings regime. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) Over the past decade, U.S. stocks have crushed bonds by a margin not seen since the 1920s and 1950s. But with yields rising, that equity advantage looks more fragile. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 Pressure is mounting on U.S. small caps. The S&P 600 has broken below its 50-day moving average, ending a run of outperformance that began in late 2025 after nearly five years of lagging the S&P 500. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecast Goldman Sachs sees U.S. core PCE cooling to 2.2% year-over-year by Q4 2027, and that makes a string of additional rate hikes beyond today’s pricing hard to justify. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor bonds over equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research