S&P 500 Index and 50-Day Moving Average After holding above its 50-day moving average, a key level traders watch to gauge momentum, the S&P 500 slipped below that support Wednesday as sellers came back into the market. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Annual Returns Bitcoin is sliding toward a year of losses, and this one comes without the usual chaos. No fraud, no implosion, just a quieter, more mature market learning that pain isn’t always tied to panic. Image: Bloomberg
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Earnings sentiment for the U.S. has cooled from earlier highs but stays positive overall, with strong corporate results helping to temper recession fears and sustain the bull run in equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains While some volatility is likely, momentum still favors the bulls. After a powerful run from 2023 to 2025, the S&P 500 Index could find a short-term bottom in the fall of 2026 before pushing toward 7,700 by year-end. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Gold Price (5-Year Rolling Change) and World Military Expenses When governments ramp up military spending, gold tends to sparkle. Rising geopolitical risks and looser fiscal policy weaken paper currencies and revive inflation worries, sending investors back to bullion. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Earnings Growth The gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to narrow, paving the way for a broader, more balanced earnings landscape across the index in 2026 and 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.89% YoY in December. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Current Account Balance as a % of GDP The U.S. current account deficit has been on a widening path since 2019 and looks poised to stay elevated into 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.12% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Retail Traders Average Portfolio Stock Allocation and Investment Managers Average Stock Exposure Over the past two decades, periods when both retail and professional traders were this heavily long have often been followed by S&P 500 underperformance in the following one to three months. Image: Bloomberg