Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Investors’ continued tilt toward riskier assets signals growing confidence in the markets and the broader economic outlook, alongside a clear appetite for capital growth and higher returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of S&P 500 Annual Return Contributed by the 10 Largest Stocks In 2025, just 10 stocks generated more than half of the S&P 500’s gains, a reminder that the market’s engine is running on a few powerful cylinders. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average returns in any given year. Will 2026 keep the winning streak alive with another year of double‑digit gains? Image: Carson Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity jumped back to life in January, with the ISM Manufacturing Index hitting 52.6 and easily topping forecasts for 48.5. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. Click the Image to Enlarge
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, slightly higher than average and consistent with a moderate risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and reposition their portfolios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 This year, the Magnificent Seven are poised to post earnings growth of about 24%, twice the 12% projected for the rest of the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps in the 1930s and 1960s. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 Relative to MSCI All-World Ex-U.S. The S&P 500 underperformed global markets by 9.9% in dollar terms in 2025, its biggest lag since 2009, as U.S. tariffs bit and the AI trade stayed locked in the hands of a few megacaps. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research