Cash Held by U.S. Households Equity inflows are drawing support from the cash buffers U.S. households amassed during the pandemic, with a large share of those savings yet to be deployed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Capex, EBITDA and Net Buybacks Hyperscaler capex is outpacing earnings and starting to bite. Buybacks are slipping as cash is redirected into AI infrastructure, setting up a tradeoff: more upside later, less cash in shareholders’ pockets today. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold Futures Gold’s 2026 gains have evaporated as sentiment flipped from rate cuts to higher-for-longer expectations. A stronger U.S. dollar is adding pressure, while forced selling to cover losses elsewhere is accelerating the selloff. Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 13.6%, leaving the expansion narrative in place.. This cycle still has room to run. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Cumulative Global Equity Fund Flows Across Regions U.S. equity inflows are holding up well and have picked up pace in recent months, adding fuel to the market’s upward momentum. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – First Half of July Seasonality favors the bulls. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 69% of the time in the first half of July, with the Nasdaq 100 posting gains in 17 of the past 18 years. Not a promise, but a pattern the market rarely ignores. Image:…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now halfway through this typical June swoon. Image: Carson Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is set to reach $764 billion this year, rising to $1.018 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it feels less like a cycle and more like a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 During The Dotcom Bubble Back at the start of the dotcom bust, U.S. tech stocks sold off while the rest of the market rose. If that pattern holds, the safest place to hide might still be in stocks, just not the same ones. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator As G10 excess liquidity remains in negative territory, the outlook for U.S. equities over the next six months darkens. When liquidity drains, stocks tend to feel it. Image: Bloomberg
Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research