S&P 500 – Which Will Perform Best in 2026? More portfolio managers see the “S&P 493” gaining ground on the Magnificent 7 this year, with fundamentals improving and valuation spreads closing amid worries over index concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Sector Fund Flows Technology sector funds have experienced outflows recently amid stretched valuations and shifting investor priorities, while other sectors have drawn inflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Change in Consensus EPS The market is still a Big Tech story. Earnings estimates for 2026 keep climbing for the tech giants, while the rest of the S&P 493 struggles to keep up. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Distribution of 1-Year S&P 500 Returns in Non-Recession Years Double‑digit losses are a rarity outside recessions, just 5% of the time. But when growth kicks in, the S&P 500 usually surges, notching double-digit gains nearly 70% of the time and ending higher in 85% of those years. Image: Carson Investment Research
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ America’s equity outperformance topped out in 2022. U.S. growth still looks solid, but lofty valuations suggest tougher performance ahead, arguing for a more balanced global allocation in 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government bonds. Image: TS Lombard
CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return The CAPE10 ratio has rarely stood this high. If past patterns hold, investors could be facing negative real returns over the coming ten years. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based On What The First Five Days Do A bullish start to the year for the S&P 500 lifts investor spirits. When the index is up more than 1% in the first 5 trading days, it has historically led to stronger annual returns, averaging 15.7% and ended higher 87% of the…
S&P 500 Seasonality While seasonality in the S&P 500 always tells a story, midterm years rank as the weakest in the four-year presidential cycle but still deliver positive returns more often than not. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections U.S. stocks have a history of pushing higher toward bull market peaks before eventually pulling back. In such periods, corrections tend to be brief, with rebounds coming faster than during deeper bear cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio U.S. tech stocks continue to trade at a steep premium versus the rest of the market, despite the recent pullback. Supportive fiscal and monetary winds could help narrow that gap. Image: Topdown Charts