S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits Momentum is in the air for the bulls. Every time the S&P 500 has lost more than 15% in a year but clawed back to finish with double-digit gains, the following year has also delivered double-digit returns—without fail since 1950. Image:…
Hyperscaler Capex by Company Goldman Sachs is turning more bullish on hyperscaler spending, hiking its CAPEX outlook after 3Q25 results showed a wave of AI‑ and cloud‑fueled infrastructure growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a long, uninterrupted climb since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, with the long-term trend channel suggesting growing risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned Davis Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season has made one thing clear — corporate profit strength isn’t fading yet, with 64% of S&P 500 firms smashing Q3 estimates by at least a standard deviation, while only 10% missed the mark. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After the 10 Strongest May-October Returns The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a May–October surge like this since 1950! History says momentum like this rarely fades—nine out of ten times, the rally kept rolling from November to April, with average gains near 14%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consensus Capex Spending Estimates for AI Hyperscalers Hyperscalers are ramping up capex, with analysts lifting forecasts well beyond early 2025 estimates amid surging AI infrastructure investment and intensifying global tech competition. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns Wall Street’s sweet spot runs from November to April — the market’s “best six months” — when holiday spending, year-end bonuses, and tax considerations give stocks their seasonal lift. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After >15% YTD End of October Big years tend to end bigger. When the S&P 500 is already up more than 15% by October’s close, November and December combined have extended the rally nearly every time—20 out of 21 years, for an extra 4.7% gain on average. Image: Carson Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.96%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The strongest macro theme for 2026 appears to be global growth reacceleration fueled by the massive easing of monetary policy in the prior two years, setting the stage for improved economic momentum worldwide. Image: Topdown Charts
Margin Debt and Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average Margin debt has surged for five straight months—the sharpest rise since the last market peak. The move has pushed margin balances far above their 48‑month moving average, flashing warning signs of overleverage and rising risk. Image: Real Investment Advice