MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations are rich across sectors and styles, leaving investors with almost no cushion. A slight turn in mood could push prices lower, with few supports below. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 2027 EPS Growth Based on Semiconductor Gross Margin Scenarios With semiconductors now an outsized, high-margin engine for the S&P 500, 2027 earnings growth is highly sensitive to how chip margins evolve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
5-Year Rolling Return of U.S. 10-Year Bonds Five-year rolling returns on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are now among the worst in a century, both before and after inflation. Much of the damage was done in the 2022 rate-hiking cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Real Trailing 4Q EPS Relative to 30-Year Trend S&P 500 earnings are running well above a 30-year trend. That’s good news for profits, but a warning for valuations if the boom starts to cool. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of GDP U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP are at record highs, which on their own don’t signal an imminent recession. The question is not whether margins are high, but how long structural supports can hold them up. Image: J.P. Morgan
EUR/USD vs. Average of 5-Year Real & Nominal Rate Differential U.S–euro area rate differentials remain a key headwind for EUR/USD, with the narrative increasingly about Fed hawkishness and the prospect of wider spreads ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has eased from its highs but remains modestly overweight, at the 61st percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons With the post-earnings lull over, Wall Street is now turning its attention to the next reporting season, a period that has often been friendly to U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance Around FOMC Meetings The S&P 500 sold off again after the FOMC meeting last week, only to rally the next day, as investors refocused on what matters most: earnings. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 12%, market-implied recession odds for the next year remain below their long-term average, leaving a supportive backdrop for risk assets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Financial Tightness Indicator vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI SA Tighter financial conditions are starting to hit manufacturing sentiment and order flow. If the squeeze persists, the ISM Manufacturing PMI could weaken further, adding pressure to risk assets. Image: Bloomberg