Geopolitical Risk Index Geopolitical risk has risen sharply and this often coincides with higher equity volatility and risk‑off behavior in markets. Markets hate uncertainty, and geopolitics never fail to deliver it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations U.S. households are not fully buying the Fed’s inflation fight. One‑year expectations sit at 3%, above the 2% target, and longer‑term expectations aren’t much different. For most families, everyday costs haven’t eased much. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 deteriorated sharply last week, a warning sign that strength at the index level may be masking underlying fragility. That’s not usually what the bulls want to see. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Return Around Geopolitical Risk Events The latest moves in the S&P 500 recall how markets have historically absorbed geopolitical risks: brief pullbacks followed by rebounds, often back to pre-shock levels in roughly a month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often fade faster than people expect. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this level, the squeeze could trim global GDP growth by roughly 0.3pp over the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Global Crude Oil Export Global crude exports have tumbled as conflict flares across the Middle East, rattling supply routes. Analysts see several weeks of disruption but some relief ahead if tensions cool. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment softens into the midterms. Image: Ned Davis Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 43rd percentile, positioning reflects a market that has eased slightly below neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, well away from both extreme optimism or panic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research