S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 PEG Ratio Fwd P/E? Rich. PEG? Cheap, because long-term earnings-growth estimates are the highest since 1995. That low PEG is just blockbuster growth expectation. A recession or an AI-spending slowdown could quickly turn that narrative. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures is screaming oversold on the S&P 500, boosting the odds of a reflexive rally. Setups like this can flip quickly once buyers return. Image: MarketDesk Research
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Forward EPS Sustainable bull markets are driven by corporate earnings and fundamentals, not just hope. Vibes can lift prices for a while, but profits are what keep the rally going. Image: BCA Research
VIX and S&P 500 Seasonality The VIX and the S&P 500 usually move in opposite directions. As the VIX begins its seasonal rise from late July into autumn, the S&P 500’s path tends to get choppier before the typical year-end rally. Image: Topdown Charts
World Portfolio / Gold – 1-Month Rolling Correlation Gold diversifies global portfolios again, acting as insurance against currency depreciation, geopolitical risk, and inflation, and as a hedge when stocks and bonds don’t move together. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates Goldman Sachs is adopting a more cautious stance than the street, expecting S&P 500 EPS to rise 24% in 2026, reaching approximately $340. That is notably below the 31% growth projected by consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Global Market Capitalization With just 4% of the world’s population, the United States accounts for 63% of global equity value. Foreign capital continues to pour into its innovation economy. When Wall Street moves, the world feels the impact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Across markets, upgrades are still outpacing downgrades. For the S&P 500, solid earnings expectations and resilient profits are easing recession worries and lifting investor optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – September Average Monthly Return Since 1928, September has been the only month to post an average loss, falling 1.1%, or 1.5% in midterm years. Its second half also contains the calendar’s weakest two-week stretch. Could history repeat? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a relentless rally since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, the long-term trend channel signaling rising risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned Davis Research