Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are showing renewed optimism for a Fed rate cut at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, pricing in a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point move lower. Image: CME Group
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Markets move in full cycles, swinging from long bull runs to deep bear phases. These patterns have played out time and again through history and remain essential to grasp for anyone focused on long-term investing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month It’s still a bull market to love, even as the bears grow louder. History rarely sees the S&P 500 peak in October, and with new highs within reach, U.S. stocks may still have more room to run. Image: Carson Investment Research
Equities – 10-Year Forward Annualized Total Returns in Local Currency Rich valuations aren’t stopping Goldman Sachs from backing global equities, with Emerging Markets and Asia seen leading performance over the next 10 years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls AI is taking center stage in corporate America, with an increasing number of S&P 500 companies spotlighting it in their earnings calls, and the momentum shows no signs of slowing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October A slow start to November may not tell the whole story. When the S&P 500 hits a new high in October, history leans bullish, with the index averaging 3.5% over November and December and finishing higher nearly nine times out of ten. Image: Carson Investment…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025 Early November weakness hasn’t derailed the bulls. Seasonal tailwinds, strong earnings, and steady inflows are lining up behind a potential year-end rally in the S&P 500. Image: Ned Davis Research
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 2.1% in October. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates Heading into 2026, hyperscale AI players face the prospect of a sharp pullback in capital spending, likely putting fresh strain on valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Margin Debt to U.S. Market Cap While margin debt has been rising, its share of total U.S. market value still sits at manageable levels. That keeps leverage risks in check and suggests investors could take on more borrowing if equities keep their momentum. Image: Bloomberg
Citi U.S. Earnings Revision Index and S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s bull market remains firmly in place, with upside potential into 2026 fueled by earnings upgrades and upbeat corporate guidance. Image: Bloomberg