Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650 and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400, as a hawkish Fed and cooling speculative demand put the near-term outlook under pressure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Bad moods can be good news for stocks. When consumer confidence sinks, as it is today, pessimism may already be priced in, leaving markets room to rally. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Backlogs Hyperscalers’ backlogs keep growing as cloud and AI demand accelerates. For now, the orders are there, but that’s not proof the spending will pay off. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Annual Real Return over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE Valuation High starting CAPE valuations have often preceded disappointing returns for U.S. stocks, creating a particularly risky backdrop for investors just entering retirement. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 If history is any guide, the rally may have more room to run. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in every Q4 when it declined in Q1 and rose more than 10% in Q2. The average Q4 return was 6.8%, keeping…
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High When markets hit record highs, many investors step back. That caution has often come at a cost: buying into strength has historically delivered better returns than buying on an average day. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 The rotation into Tech has been powerful, but the rally may still have fuel left. Continued earnings strength in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and software could give investors reason to keep buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Cloud revenue growth at the hyperscalers hit 48% in Q2. Goldman Sachs equity analysts forecast 55% in Q3. It’s an encouraging sign, but not proof that the AI spending boom will pay off. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NASDAQ 100 vs. Tech Capex The Nasdaq 100 turned lower in 2000, nine months before tech investment as a share of U.S. GDP peaked. Will this time be different? Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and generated a 288% gain. Nearly four years into the current rally, the market still appears to have room to run, much to the bears’ frustration. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forwad P/E Ratio vs. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index came in hotter than expected, raising a warning flag for equity valuations. Historically, rising manufacturing prices have been followed by lower S&P 500 fwd P/Es over the next 6 to 12 months. Image: Bloomberg