Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 14.5%, tilting the narrative toward continued expansion. This cycle still has room to run. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets Americans are all-in on equities like never before. That speaks to booming wealth and bullish sentiment, but it also leaves portfolios more vulnerable to any valuation reset. The ride higher feels good, until it doesn’t. Image: Topdown Charts
Share of Global Market Capitalization The U.S. accounts for only 4% of the world’s population, but it holds 62% of global equity value. Its innovation pipeline continues to pull in overseas capital. The simple truth: markets still move to a U.S. beat. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and BB to 10-Year Treasury Spread Keeping an eye on the junk to Treasury bond spread can reveal how healthy the U.S. market really is, and where it might be going next. The bond market usually sends signals before stocks react. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 -10% Or More Annual Declines Are Rare Double-digit declines in the S&P 500 during a calendar year are rare, but they never come out of nowhere. Since 1928, they’ve occurred only twelve times, and each drop came with its own story. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and DXY Weighted 2-Year Rate Differential The U.S. dollar’s recent gains have been surprisingly modest, given the backdrop. In fact, rate differentials still argue for a softer greenback. Image: TS Lombard
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future inflation higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank
Energy Positioning vs. Oil Price Energy positioning is lagging what you’d expect considering how far oil prices have already moved up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Since 2024, the volatility of the average stock in the S&P 500 has been on the rise. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research