U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In December, U.S. building permits declined to 1.483 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline before recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MSCI World Performance vs. U.S. Dollar Index Typically, the relationship between the U.S. dollar’s strength and global equities is significant. A weaker U.S. dollar tends to support global equities, while a stronger dollar generally puts downward pressure on them. Image: J.P. Morgan
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Investors face a delicate balance: while economic indicators show improvement, the market’s high valuations leave little room for error if conditions deteriorate. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Back-to-Back 20% Returns When the S&P 500 experiences back-to-back annual returns of 20% or more, bulls are particularly happy, as historical data since 1950 shows that the following year has a median return of 12.8%. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears hate CPI days like this week! It’s tough for them like kids at a birthday party with no cake—just sitting there, wondering why they weren’t invited to the fun! Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
Equity Share of Household Financial Assets Compared to U.S. households, Europeans exhibit lower stock ownership rates, which can be explained by cultural savings attitudes, structural differences in pension systems, and a stronger preference for liquid investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold vs. Diamond The diamond and gold markets are currently experiencing contrasting trends, with diamonds facing challenges due to competition from lab-grown alternatives and changing social trends, while gold remains a stable investment choice. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.99% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
CAPE Valuations vs. 10-Year U.S. Interest Rates Rising interest rates often have a significant impact on equity market valuations, frequently causing valuation reversals, especially for growth stocks and companies with high valuations based on future earnings expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Average Returns in Bull Markets While the third year of a bull market often shows signs of relative weakness, patient investors may find substantial opportunities in the following years, as historical trends suggest the potential for sustained growth. Image: Carson Investment Research
Market Capitalization of the Largest Stock Relative to the 75th Percentile Stock The concentration of the U.S. equity market is currently at historically high levels, nearing its most concentrated state in a century, driven by the dominance of a few mega-cap tech companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research