Bloomberg Dollar Index One-Month Risk Reversals Currency markets are turning defensive, as demand for dollar upside and protection against violent swings gains pace amid Middle East tensions. Few things spook investors like uncertainty, and the greenback remains their safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. The hit to output looks modest given how sharp the oil price swing is. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
U.S. Dollar History vs. Neutral Value Currency markets move more on expectations around interest rates, economic data, and geopolitics than on fundamentals. The U.S. dollar’s stabilization at neutral levels reflects Fed policy uncertainty and ongoing global tensions. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Strong profits haven’t lifted valuations: the S&P 500’s P/E has narrowed as investors weigh geopolitical uncertainty and renewed oil price volatility. Sometimes solid results aren’t enough when risk appetite fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability Markets now price in just a 14% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, keeping recession fears modest and consistent with a moderate-risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Cross-Asset Volatility Stress Rising cross-asset volatility often signals growing fragility in U.S. equities. It is a cautionary signal, not a call on an imminent crash. It’s more of a yellow flag than a red one. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns Saint Patrick’s Day is putting a smile on the bulls, as it’s not just one of the greenest days of the year but also historically the strongest for U.S. stocks in March, leaving bears short on luck. Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! 🍀☘ Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Return Around 7 Major Geopolitical Risk Events The S&P 500’s 5% slide from its January peak mirrors the market’s typical pullback after major geopolitical shocks. Many investors see the turbulence as temporary, betting that history’s pattern of quick recoveries will hold. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Crude Oil Since the conflict erupted in the Middle East, the S&P 500 has been moving almost opposite to oil, showing a striking 91% inverse correlation. When crude rises, investors often worry about squeezed U.S. consumers and slower growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance When Q1 Low Breaks the December Low Close When the S&P 500 sinks below its December low in the first quarter, history tends to flash a warning light. On average, U.S. stocks have gained only 0.2% for the full year when that happens. Image: Carson Investment Research
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading 56% above its estimated medium‑term fair value. Apart from the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this overbought, leaving room for downside if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation