Category: Blog

Large Cap Sector Positioning MCG & Tech positioning has started to cool, but the trade remains crowded compared with the rest of the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500’s Average Annualized Return over the Next 10 Years, by Starting CAPE High starting valuations have often meant leaner returns. When the CAPE ratio was above 30, stocks gained just 1.4% a year on average over the following decade. With the CAPE now at 41.8, could stocks trail bonds for another decade? Image: Real…

Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 17.5% during midterm years, the deepest swoon in the presidential cycle. But the market’s low has been a launchpad: one year later, stocks have always been…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Investors have little room for error. With the equity risk premium at its lowest level in more than two decades, U.S. stocks offer less reward for the risks investors take. Image: BCA Research

Global Sector Fund Flows Over the past year, investors have poured into tech funds as AI euphoria, surging chip stocks and rising earnings forecasts strengthened the bull case. How much longer can the momentum last? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations The S&P 500 is on track for another quarter of solid earnings growth, led by tech. This quarter, growth is expected to spread to other sectors, too. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Oil Prices Forecasts Oil prices eased in Q3 but remain high. For S&P 500 companies, the earnings hit is usually modest, as they pass on higher costs and cut spending. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Performance 1-Year After Midterm Elections Midterm elections have been a reliable tailwind for stocks: the S&P 500 has risen over the following year every time since 1950, averaging a 14.8% gain. No doubt, bulls have history on their side. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 34% year over year in Q3, a pace more typical of the early stages of an economic recovery. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started Born in October 2022, this bull market is now four years old. Bulls are smiling: over the past 50 years, every bull market to reach this age lasted at least five years, with an average ultimate length of eight years. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern The equal-weighted S&P 500 has followed the seasonal script closely, rebounding from its lows almost in step with the S&P 500’s typical pattern. Seasonality is now a tailwind for U.S. stocks into year-end. Image: Topdown Charts