Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns December usually puts Wall Street in a festive mood. The reason? The Santa Claus rally typically shows up, with U.S. stocks averaging a 1.4% gain since 1950 and ending higher roughly 73% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut Fed easing sounds bullish, but not when growth cracks. In recessions, U.S. stocks have often fallen despite cheaper money. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts Traders are increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-point move and just a 23% likelihood of another cut in January 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate Estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow point to 3.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, a reminder that the U.S. economy isn’t cooling just yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Magnificent Seven Returns With one sector and seven giants driving the world’s biggest stock market, volatility isn’t going anywhere. Investors should brace for more swings in 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index Returns – Zweig Breadth Thrust Signals Since WWII The Zweig Breadth Thrust that flashed in late April 2025 drew plenty of doubters. Six months later, the S&P 500 has roared nearly 23% higher. Now, another ZBT may be forming, hinting the bulls still have fuel in the tank. Image: Carson Investment Research
Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations Whenever earnings detach from their long-term growth trend, markets usually follow with painful corrections. The current gap hints that risk is quietly building beneath the surface. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years usually test investors’ nerves, but history leans in favor of the bulls: U.S. stocks typically outperform in a President’s second term, averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sector ETF Flows ETF flows held strong as 2025 progressed, with another solid week for equity funds, while investors kept rotating from Financials to Healthcare. Image: Strategas Asset Management
S&P 500 – 1997-2001 vs. Mid 2023-2025 Analog The S&P 500’s mid-2023 to 2025 bull market echoes the late-1990s dot-com meltup in both momentum and mood. For now, the trend remains intact, even as pockets of skepticism linger. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns in November U.S. stocks bottomed on November 20, snapping back over the next three sessions. Late‑month trading in November tends to brighten sentiment and put fresh wind behind the market’s sails. Image: Carson Investment Research