Median S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Rates The S&P 500 has typically rallied about 50% in the two years after the Fed begins cutting rates. But when those cuts hit during recessions, those gains often don’t last. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy, or a flood of new debt can just as easily push them higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Valuations vs. 6-Month Forward Returns Valuations can help frame long-term return expectations, but they rarely say much about what markets will do in the short run. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg
Returns for S&P 500 by Sector Since the Launch of ChatGPT on November 30th 2022 The communication services and IT sectors have far outpaced the S&P 500 since ChatGPT’s launch three years ago, powered by massive earnings growth and deep capital investment in AI. Image: Deutsche Bank
VIX – Volatility Index The VIX has retreated hard from recent highs, signaling that investors are less rattled by inflated AI and tech valuations and more hopeful about Fed cuts on the horizon. Market confidence is making a comeback. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – Bloomberg U.S. 500 Ex Mag 7 Index vs. FTSE All-World Ex U.S. Index The AI boom remains a U.S. mega-cap story for now, leaving the global balance mostly untouched. Image: Bloomberg
Share Repurchases vs. U.S. Stock Market Returns Corporate buybacks and market returns move in tandem. With roughly $5 billion a day in share repurchases, U.S. companies are keeping a solid bid under equities and softening every selloff. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s end in the first year of a presidential cycle, December has never missed and kept the rally going with an…
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Drawdown Bitcoin was down more than 30% from its October peak. For most assets that would be a crash, but for Bitcoin it’s a familiar kind of turbulence, sharp yet within its usual volatility range. Image: Bloomberg