S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average returns in any given year. Will 2026 keep the winning streak alive with another year of double‑digit gains? Image: Carson Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 18%, slightly higher than average and consistent with a moderate risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and reposition their portfolios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 This year, the Magnificent Seven are poised to post earnings growth of about 24%, twice the 12% projected for the rest of the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Stock Market Concentration The U.S. stock market is as concentrated as it has been in decades, but history is full of similar moments, from the railroad boom of 1900 to the dominance of mega-caps in the 1930s and 1960s. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Chinese Stocks (iShares China Large-Cap ETF) Since early 2024, Chinese stocks have shown significant outperformance relative to US stocks, amid policy support, tech advancements, and attractive valuations. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Global Policy Rate Global central banks moved decisively into rate‑cutting mode through 2025, with analysts expecting further, though more measured, easing in 2026, particularly in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits Momentum is with the bulls. Each time the S&P 500 has sunk more than 15% and then closed the year with double-digit gains, the following year has extended the rally with another double-digit rise. That trend has held firm since 1950.…
Price of Gold Forecast Analyst forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 cluster near record highs, with most expecting bullion to gain about 7%. A slower climb than last year’s rally and with forecasts spanning a wide range. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand runs ahead of supply. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, has cooled from a year ago but is still sitting close to the top of its historical range, flashing an early warning for the market cycle. Image: Topdown Charts