S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close deeply in the red, could this time be the exception? Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October, the S&P 500’s P/E has slipped from 23 to 19, showing investors have turned more cautious even as earnings hold steady. The mood has cooled, and risk is being repriced across the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Valuation Spread The last time the Nasdaq 100 traded this cheap versus the S&P 500, it staged its biggest outperformance in a year. Honestly, that’s tough to ignore. Image: Bloomberg
Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption will prove short‑lived. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year Markets are never a straight ride up. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged double‑digit gains while dropping roughly 14% each year. Volatility is simply the cost of long-term reward. Image: Carson Investment Research
When Do You Expect a Ceasefire to Be Reached Between the U.S. and Iran? Investors are largely treating the Middle East conflict as a temporary shock, with most expecting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of April. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate Markets are now pricing in a meaningful chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, something that looked very unlikely at the start of the year. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The unemployment rate moving above its three-year average has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950. The latest crossover came in June 2024. Since then, no recession has followed, raising questions if this time is different. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits History favors the bulls. Every time the S&P 500 has dropped more than 15% in a year and then roared back with double‑digit gains, the next year also posted double‑digit returns, without exception since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance After Oil Shocks On average, U.S. equities have tended to be under pressure in the months following major oil shocks, though the pattern is not uniform and depends heavily on whether the shock is large, persistent, and tied to broader macro stress. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates. Image: J.P. Morgan