U.S. Tech Media Telecom Valuations vs. ROE Investors are still willing to pay a premium for U.S. tech, media, and telecom stocks, and with robust returns on equity, those valuations look broadly justified. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Energy Group Positioning Energy sits in the 91st percentile on positioning, firmly in overweight territory. With strong earnings momentum largely priced in, the sector looks exposed if oil prices soften. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index vs. Insider Sells Insider selling usually rises with the market, as higher prices prompt executives to lock in gains. Lately, though, selling has cooled even as equities climb, pointing to a reduced appetite to take profits. Image: Bloomberg
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are tranquil, systematic strategies tend to stay aggressively long equities to capture steady upside, a positioning that can unwind sharply when volatility comes back. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Issuance Surge in U.S. equity issuance has a habit of picking up near tops or as the cycle begins to turn. It is more a yellow flag than a call to exit. For now, strength in large-cap earnings and narrow leadership continue to provide support. Image: Real Investment Advice
Nine Day Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Nine-day winning streaks have been a reliable bullish signal for the S&P 500. In every instance since 1990, the index has been higher 12 months later, delivering an average gain of 16.7%, a track record that keeps bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
Daily Percentage Change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 10.26% last Friday, its sharpest decline since March 2020. The long-term story remains intact, but expectations had clearly overheated. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock sits at 3.2%, a relatively elevated level, but the rise appears driven by hedging activity rather than bearish conviction, offering little evidence of a market inflection point. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a US recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs puts the odds closer to 25%, above the historical average. Is the market underpricing the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons, with average one-year gains above 41%! Image: Carson Investment Research