Category: Blog

U.S. Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions have eased since March, pointing to a more growth‑friendly backdrop. Looser conditions typically give near‑term GDP a lift. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic contrarian bullish signal. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Quality vs. Momentum Equities Since the March lows, momentum has taken the lead over quality, backed by strong earnings prints and positive price action. For now, investors are sticking with companies that deliver on both earnings and momentum. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce as expectations for Fed easing in 2026 faded. The new $4,900 December target still leaves room for second-half gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Price Return in 2026 The median stock in each region is lagging this year, with gains concentrated in a narrow group of heavyweight tech names. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ROE for Mega-Cap Tech and the Rest of the S&P 500 Mega-cap tech’s return on equity is expected to face headwinds and decline through 2028, while the rest of the S&P 500 sees ROE trending higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Margin Debt as Percentage of M2 (Measure of Leverage) Leverage amplifies gains in rising markets but reveals fragility when sentiment turns. Margin debt relative to the money supply is running hot, echoing levels last seen during the dot-com boom. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity of the market’s response to incoming data and policy signals. Image: Deutsche Bank

Median Stock Return on Equity vs. P/E Valuation Profitability gaps go a long way in explaining why equity indices trade at different valuations. Companies that generate higher returns on equity typically earn richer multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research