Equities Allocation by G10 and U.S. Investors Across the G10, equity exposure in household, pension, and insurance portfolios has moved up significantly, nearing record highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Consensus Unlike the usual pattern of downward revisions during the season, S&P 500 earnings estimates turned out to be too conservative. Third-quarter numbers are now moving higher, a positive sign for earnings momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Magnificent Seven 12-Month Forward P/E Valuations for the Magnificent Seven have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit near the lower end of the past seven years. They’re still not a bargain, but the risk‑reward looks much more balanced. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is at a level that has historically pointed to weakness over the short to intermediate term. But markets can stay stretched far longer than logic suggests, then break down much faster than anyone expects. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS SA vs. S&P 500 Despite a strong second quarter of earnings, U.S. stocks have mostly gone nowhere. If the Fed turns more hawkish or rates stay elevated for longer, valuation multiples could still face pressure even as profits keep rising. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index vs. S&P 500 Equally-Weighted Index Investors looking to trim exposure to AI-fueled volatility may want to consider the equal-weight S&P 500. It beat the cap-weighted index during the dot-com bust and has often held up better when leadership gets narrow. Image: BCA Research
Equities, Cash and Real Estate as % of U.S. Household Net Financial Wealth Stocks have overtaken real estate as the bigger store of household wealth in the U.S., and that has become a meaningful tailwind for spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When U.S. Treasury yields climb fast, the most expensive high-growth stocks often take the biggest hit. A sudden 50 basis point rise in the nominal 10-year yield over a month remains a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while consensus puts the odds closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is the market too complacent about the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 Investors are still rotating out of mega-cap tech. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have underperformed sharply, while the broader market has proved far more resilient. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a pullback if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation