Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 Since October 2025, the Mag-7 has been a drag on U.S. indices, posting gains of less than 5% as June selling picked up on doubts over AI capex payoffs and a more hawkish Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes In fast tightening cycles, the S&P 500 typically struggles in the 12 months post-first hike; in slow or no cycles, it tends to rally. Near term, stocks stay shaky until investors believe in a “slow-hike” or “one-and-done” Fed. Image: Ned Davis Research
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities priced for perfection, the next five years deliver slimmer returns. The businesses are exceptional, but price still matters. Even great stocks can disappoint when investors pay too much. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in history after the early dot-com rally. Image: Bloomberg
Average S&P 500 Performance Midterm years typically bring a bumpy start to the second half for the S&P 500, with sellers gaining traction into October as summer ends. Post-election, the market has a habit of strengthening, regardless of who wins. Image: Deutsche Bank
MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth stocks, even though the rally isn’t dead. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could lose their support faster than investors think. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity drawdowns often follow. Image: BCA Research
Gold Net Speculative Positioning Speculative positioning in gold has reversed sharply in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs still sees prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness. Image: Ned Davis Research