Category: Blog

EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, the STOXX 600, and particularly MSCI EM, point to rising confidence in 2026 earnings, with momentum still leaning toward strength. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Index Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to close above 7,000, marking its first record since late January. The milestone underscores how tech stocks continue to power the broader rally. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts resilient US growth through 2026 and 2027, but expects core inflation to stay well above the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment at 4.4%. Resilient growth sounds good, but persistent inflation might complicate rate cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Median Forward Returns After 5+ Consecutive Weekly Declines Following five weeks of losses, the market’s rally fit the usual playbook. Dating back to 1965, periods like this have preceded a median 12.3% gain in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years tend to shake up U.S. markets, as policy risks and political noise rise before voters hit the polls. Uncertainty is the one asset every portfolio gets stuck with, and election season always adds more to the mix. Image: Carson Investment Research

Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and even more so in cyclicals, sitting at the 7th percentile. A hint of good news could see investors swing sharply the other way. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Mega-Cap Growth & Tech (Market Cap and Earnings) The tech pullback has left a bigger disconnect from earnings expectations. Once the mood shifts, risk appetite could roar back and drive stocks sharply higher. Fundamentals haven’t changed much, just the mood. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. dollar index slipping back below its 200-day moving average gives bears more reason to cheer, as the recent rebound loses momentum and the broader downtrend reasserts itself. Image: The Daily Shot

S&P 500 Forward Returns After Extreme AAII Bearish Sentiment Peaks Since 1990, when the AAII bearish sentiment exceeded 45%, as it did recently, the S&P 500 has delivered strong 12‑month gains, averaging more than 18%. Once again, the market looks ready to climb just when investors least expect it. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Up 7 Days in a Row and Up >7% After seven straight days of gains and a jump of more than 7%, history points to more good news ahead: median six‑month gains of 18.2% have followed similar streaks since 1950, putting a smile on bulls’ faces. Image: Carson Investment Research

Gold Futures Positioning Despite the drop in gold prices in March, futures positioning held steady, suggesting that investors were buying downside protection rather than making a strong directional bet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation