Trade Policy Uncertainty The rise in trade policy uncertainty significantly undermines investment confidence, disrupts trade flows, and hampers overall economic growth, highlighting the need for stable trade policies to foster a healthier global economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets Money market funds continue to attract significant investor interest. As long as interest rates stay elevated, these funds will likely appeal to those in search of safe and profitable short-term investment opportunities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Change in U.S. Dollar vs. Change in S&P 500 EPS While there are instances where the U.S. Dollar and S&P 500 EPS may move in tandem, the overall statistical relationship is weak. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Survey – U.S. Inflation and EU Inflation Inflation expectations are diverging sharply between the United States and Europe. While inflation in the U.S. shows signs of recovery, European expectations have notably declined, dipping below 2% for the first time since late 2021. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the last three months, announced stock buybacks in the U.S. market have been primarily driven by the Healthcare, Energy, and Financial sectors. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% is creating a headwind for equity valuations and potentially dampening investor sentiment. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Ignoring climate risks in your portfolio is like wearing a parka in a sauna—you might feel cozy now, but you’re in for a sweaty surprise later! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Currency Futures Positioning Despite already high U.S. dollar positioning, Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast for the U.S. dollar, expecting it to rally by about 5% in the next 12 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate While U.S. inflation breakeven rates have been moving higher recently, inflation expectations remain relatively well-anchored, which is crucial for maintaining price stability and economic confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation While multiple expansion has played an important role in boosting S&P 500 returns, future performance may depend more on earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and USD Bets Leveraged Funds Investors, particularly hedge funds, are showing a strong bullish sentiment towards the U.S. dollar, with positioning now at its highest level since January 2019, while Goldman’s strategists anticipate potential further dollar strength. Image: Bloomberg