Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has mostly been an infrastructure trade, lifting chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms while software and productivity names sit on the sidelines. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Share Buyback vs. Tech Sector Share in U.S. Buybacks Tech’s share of U.S. buybacks has climbed over the past decade, but the trend may begin to reverse, as AI spending diverts cash away from shareholders and into capex. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
S&P 500 – Aggregate Net Profit Margin, 1999-2026, Against Its Long-Run Average S&P 500 margins have moved up and stayed up, sitting around 60% above the long-term average. The question isn’t if that’s lofty, but how long today’s structural tailwinds can keep margins from sliding back toward the mean. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a month is a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equities look expensive by almost any historical measure, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their long-term averages. But if momentum holds, the rally may have further to run. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections U.S. stocks often stall before midterm elections, with volatility picking up, but returns tend to strengthen after the vote as policy uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs This year, U.S. ISM PMIs have picked up sharply, finally catching the earlier surge in earnings-revisions momentum. The cyclical upturn is now underway. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings growth has surged far beyond what U.S. GDP growth would historically justify, sparking debate over whether this is a temporary overshoot or the start of a new earnings regime. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) Over the past decade, U.S. stocks have crushed bonds by a margin not seen since the 1920s and 1950s. But with yields rising, that equity advantage looks more fragile. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 Pressure is mounting on U.S. small caps. The S&P 600 has broken below its 50-day moving average, ending a run of outperformance that began in late 2025 after nearly five years of lagging the S&P 500. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecast Goldman Sachs sees U.S. core PCE cooling to 2.2% year-over-year by Q4 2027, and that makes a string of additional rate hikes beyond today’s pricing hard to justify. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research