S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations S&P 500 earnings growth has consistently exceeded expectations in recent years, reflecting strong corporate performance and favorable economic conditions, leading analysts to remain optimistic about future growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have a significantly larger weight in the index compared to their share of earnings, which raises concerns about potential overconcentration risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500 took a dive last week with a 1.94% loss. It seems bulls are feeling a bit under the weather—maybe too much partying at market highs! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
Rolling 12-Month % Change in the S&P 500 An economic slowdown or a hawkish pivot from the Fed could have a substantial impact on U.S. equities, potentially causing declines even if a recession does not occur. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Systematic Equity Positioning Current systematic equity positioning is at the 90th percentile, indicating high equity exposure. This could result in limited upside potential, elevated risk levels, and an increased likelihood of market reversal. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The current equity risk premium suggests that investors might find U.S. Treasury bonds more appealing than U.S. equities. Image: Bloomberg
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The current environment poses an increased risk of a U.S. equity drawdown exceeding 20% over the next 12 months and 10% over the next 3 months, with a notable probability nearing 30%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment indicators are signaling a risk-on attitude among investors, highlighting their increasing willingness to embrace riskier assets in today’s economic landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Deutsche Bank projects that S&P 500 earnings growth will increase from 8.7% year-over-year in Q3 to 12.8% in Q4, aligning with the low double-digit growth typically seen outside of recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The S&P 500 took a nosedive of 1.94% this week, leaving bears popping champagne while bulls search for their lost party hats, wondering if the market will continue to slide further! Have a Great Weekend, Everyone! 😎
Stocks – High Quality Relative Earnings Revisions Breadth and High Quality Factor Relative Performance In a late-cycle market, investors looking for stability might find high-quality stocks appealing, given their historical ability to provide robust protection against both market volatility and economic downturns. Image: Morgan Stanley Research