Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.77% YoY in December. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
How Survey Responders Think the S&P 500 Will Perform Over the Year Ahead 35% of respondents expect the S&P 500 index to appreciate between 5% and 10% by the end of 2025, while 24% expect it to decline, and 23% predict an increase exceeding 10%. Image: Deutsche Bank
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change Market performance typically reflects annual changes in corporate earnings. Should the U.S. economy experience a slowdown in 2025, we may see a decline in earnings growth, potentially resulting in slower market growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 Concentration Median P/E While the current median P/E of the top 10 stocks relative to the S&P 500 median P/E is historically high, it is still below the peaks seen during major market bubbles like the dot-com era and the Nifty Fifty period. Image: Ned Davis Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears hate that the S&P 500 has a history of strong performance following years of double-digit gains, when the first five trading days of the new year show positive results. Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cut Cycles Since 1966, the current Fed easing cycle has resulted in the second-worst performance of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The only period with worse performance was in 1981, during Chairman Paul Volcker’s aggressive measures to combat inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Top 10 Mega Cap Stocks as % of S&P 500 The increasing dominance of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 Index has sparked significant concerns regarding the index’s ability to offer adequate diversification for investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
Scatter Plot Returns of P/E Multiples and S&P 500 1-Year Returns The lack of correlation between the P/E ratio and the S&P 500’s one-year return suggests that investors should focus on long-term strategies rather than making decisions based solely on current valuations. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally While cash was once considered king, non-bank investors globally have significantly reduced their cash allocations, reaching levels not seen since at least 1999. Image: J.P. Morgan
Physical Gold Held by all Gold ETFs Globally While central banks are increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency risks, global gold ETFs continue to see a decline in investor interest. Image: J.P. Morgan