China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns Investing at all-time market highs is often viewed with skepticism, but data shows that it can lead to superior forward returns compared to investing on random days. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Gold Price Forecast The combination of robust central bank buying, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions supports a bullish sentiment among strategists for gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by late 2025. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Earnings Revision While analysts anticipate a slowdown in the Mag 7’s earnings growth for 2025 compared to previous years, they still expect these tech giants to lead the market significantly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on Various Timeframes Investors who hold positions in the S&P 500 for longer periods are more likely to achieve profitable returns and can better navigate the inherent volatility of the stock market. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – P/E Ratio of the Top 10 and Remaining Stocks in the S&P 500 Investor concerns regarding the high valuation of the S&P 500 and its top 10 stocks are growing, particularly as historical data suggests that elevated valuations can lead to subpar performance. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium, at the 94th percentile from 2010 and at the 67th percentile from 2000, suggests that investors may not be receiving adequate compensation for the risks associated with investing in U.S. stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Unfortunately for the bulls, it seems Santa Claus decided to skip the stock market this year—maybe he’s stuck in the hospital, which could lead to a bumpier ride for U.S. stocks ahead! Have a Great Weekend, Everyone! 😎
Real 10-Year Return – Spread: S&P 500 – Treasuries Over the past decade, investors have reaped substantial rewards from equities, as stocks have significantly outperformed bonds. However, the outlook for the next ten years indicates that this trend may not persist. Image: Topdown Charts
To What Extend Do You Think the U.S. “Magnificent Seven” Tech Stocks Will Either Be Up or Down in 2025? 67% of respondents expect the “Magnificent Seven” stocks to grow in 2025, with an average anticipated gain of 6.8%. In contrast, 33% predict a decline, with 22% of that group expecting a drop of over…
Historical Length of Recessions and Market Declines While a 20% decline may seem alarming for 2025, it reflects patterns that are often seen during bear markets, especially when economic conditions are challenging. Image: Real Investment Advice