Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don’t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise. Image: Real Investment Advice
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has reversed. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Today, fewer than 4.5% do, leaving Treasuries with higher yields than almost every blue-chip stock. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Price Rebased to Sept 1 = 100 of Each Midterm Years Midterm years tend to weigh on stocks, and September deserves extra care. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1.5% from Sept. 1 to its low, which tends to arrive in early October. Image: BCA Research
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up controlling Congress and how that reshapes taxes, regulation and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation – The Shiller CAPE Since 1881 The S&P 500’s CAPE ratio has climbed to levels seen only in the market’s priciest episodes, when the next decade typically delivered negative real returns. History says this time is unlikely to be an exception. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – 10 Best September Returns Ever September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, but midterm election years have delivered some of the strongest Septembers on record. All four of the best September returns ever occurred in midterm years. Image: Carson Investment Research
Leveraged Fund Positions in NASDAQ-100 Futures Bears are piling into Nasdaq‑100 futures. Short positions have surged 35% since mid‑June and are now near record levels, setting up a sharp squeeze if momentum turns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Cumulative flows into cryptocurrency funds have flipped positive for the first time since May 2026, driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutions are stepping back in, and risk appetite is picking up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been trading inversely to rate volatility. Warsh’s conventionally hawkish tone lowers the odds of catch-up tightening, which should help anchor rates vol and give stocks a tactical tailwind. Image: BCA Research
Total Return Performance (USD Terms) of Selected Assets in August Precious metals stole the show in August, with silver and gold each climbing double digits as money rotated into havens amid U.0.S debt worries, dollar softness, and a shifting Fed narrative. Image: Deutsche Bank