Two-Month Change in the S&P 500 Since WWII Since WWII, two-month rallies of this magnitude in the S&P 500 have been rare, typically appearing either in the rebound from recessions such as the GFC and Covid-19, or just ahead of the 1987 crash. Image: Deutsche Bank
MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed uncertainty linger. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Single Stock Short Interest Within S&P 500 Index Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is elevated, raising the odds of short squeezes. The rise reflects hedging activity rather than a wave of bearish bets, and does not signal an imminent turn in the market. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity Issuance U.S. equity issuance has been strengthening since 2023, and may accelerate further in coming months if the anticipated wave of mega-IPOs materializes. The question is whether the market has the appetite to absorb such a large supply. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Performance After >10% April/May Returns The S&P 500 surged 16.1% in April and May, the second-best performance on record. History suggests momentum tends to carry. In prior double-digit gains, June has always been positive, with the rest of the year adding an average 18.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain of 2.0%. That track record looks far stronger than the narrative suggests. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors moved past the selloff and priced in a lower risk of major disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Treasuries The S&P 500 looks stretched against Treasuries, trading over one standard deviation rich on a year-on-year basis and in the 95th percentile of the past 50 years. A return to the mean would favor Treasuries. Image: Bloomberg
Average Percentile Rank for U.S. Equity Market Concentration, Valuation, and Magnitude of Rally U.S. equities are flashing familiar signs: rich valuations, heavy concentration, and outsized recent returns. This is less a signal that a crash is imminent and more a reminder that expectations leave little room for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 caught up to the bottom of the trend channel in place since October 2022. If buyers defend this level, the index could keep grinding higher along that support. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation