Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio The market is no bargain: the S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, versus 16 on average over two decades, while the Magnificent Seven stretch valuations even further at 31. Image: Bloomberg
Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further if geopolitical tensions cool. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Global Median 10-Year Yield Across All Sample Economies The median 10-year government bond yield has risen from the rock-bottom levels of the pre-Covid years and early pandemic, returning to its long-term historical average — a clear sign of normalization in bond markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
World Technology vs. World Ex. TMT Relentless innovation and society’s digital obsession have kept tech earnings racing ahead of global peers—and there’s little sign the momentum is fading. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex by Company Goldman Sachs is turning more bullish on hyperscaler spending, hiking its CAPEX outlook after 3Q25 results showed a wave of AI‑ and cloud‑fueled infrastructure growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a long, uninterrupted climb since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, with the long-term trend channel suggesting growing risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned Davis Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season has made one thing clear — corporate profit strength isn’t fading yet, with 64% of S&P 500 firms smashing Q3 estimates by at least a standard deviation, while only 10% missed the mark. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After the 10 Strongest May-October Returns The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a May–October surge like this since 1950! History says momentum like this rarely fades—nine out of ten times, the rally kept rolling from November to April, with average gains near 14%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns Wall Street’s sweet spot runs from November to April — the market’s “best six months” — when holiday spending, year-end bonuses, and tax considerations give stocks their seasonal lift. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After >15% YTD End of October Big years tend to end bigger. When the S&P 500 is already up more than 15% by October’s close, November and December combined have extended the rally nearly every time—20 out of 21 years, for an extra 4.7% gain on average. Image: Carson Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.96%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…