U.S. Net Interest Expense as a % of Total Tax Revenue Washington is increasingly using tax revenue to cover its interest bill. Roughly 20% of federal receipts now goes toward debt service, the highest share of the modern era. Sooner or later, something will have to give. Image: Bloomberg
Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income Stocks now dominate household wealth. As a result, the equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the U.S. business cycle and a key driver of consumer spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500’s Average Annualized Return over the Next 10 Years, by Starting CAPE High starting valuations have often meant leaner returns. When the CAPE ratio was above 30, stocks gained just 1.4% a year on average over the following decade. With the CAPE now at 41.8, could stocks trail bonds for another decade? Image: Real…
Large Cap Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in large-cap consumer staples sits in the 13th percentile, with investors heavily underweight. Even a small lift in sentiment could be enough to spark a bounce. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 ex. Energy Year/Year EPS Growth Q2 earnings were remarkably strong, with AI infrastructure stocks once again driving gains across the S&P 500. But beneath the headline strength, the earnings picture remains highly concentrated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since the start of 2022, European banks have outpaced U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. In a market obsessed with AI and the Magnificent Seven, it’s a rare twist. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Flows into Gold Funds Demand for gold funds is picking up again as retail investors return to ETFs, central banks keep adding to their reserves and the macro backdrop continues to favor gold. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Cross Asset Risk Sentiment Global investors are firmly risk-on, but sentiment is constructive rather than euphoric, keeping the door open to further gains. Image: TS Lombard
Top 7 Hyperscaler Capex Forecast This year, the top seven U.S. hyperscalers are on track to pour almost $900 billion into capex, with 2027 set to drive the total toward $1.5 trillion. What began as an AI boom has turned into a spending supernova. Image: J.P. Morgan Estimates
U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Relative Total Return to U.S. Treasuries Earnings are still riding on nominal growth, and with valuations creeping higher, strategists see enough fuel to stay tactically bullish on U.S. equities into year-end. Image: BCA Research