Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Performance After >10% April/May Returns The S&P 500 surged 16.1% in April and May, the second-best performance on record. History suggests momentum tends to carry. In prior double-digit gains, June has always been positive, with the rest of the year adding an average 18.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain of 2.0%. That track record looks far stronger than the narrative suggests. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors moved past the selloff and priced in a lower risk of major disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Treasuries The S&P 500 looks stretched against Treasuries, trading over one standard deviation rich on a year-on-year basis and in the 95th percentile of the past 50 years. A return to the mean would favor Treasuries. Image: Bloomberg
Average Percentile Rank for U.S. Equity Market Concentration, Valuation, and Magnitude of Rally U.S. equities are flashing familiar signs: rich valuations, heavy concentration, and outsized recent returns. This is less a signal that a crash is imminent and more a reminder that expectations leave little room for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 caught up to the bottom of the trend channel in place since October 2022. If buyers defend this level, the index could keep grinding higher along that support. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Buybacks are fueling the rally on Wall Street, with U.S. authorizations exceeding a record $860 billion since the start of the year and reinforcing a strong floor for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The IPO Fade – % Change from Day-One Peak by Cohort Buying into the SpaceX IPO is a bet on hype as much as fundamentals, and history points to a volatile debut. Early investors should be ready for swings and keep dry powder until the first results bring clarity. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After Day 100 Is Up >9% YTD Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically delivered a median gain of 11.1% since 1950, keeping bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
Semiconductors vs. Consensus Fwd 12m EPS Semiconductor stocks have rallied faster than analysts have raised near-term earnings estimates, leaving valuations stretched relative to short-term fundamentals. The easy upside appears largely exhausted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research