S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons, with average one-year gains above 41%! Image: Carson Investment Research
Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can extend, but it also heightens the risk of a more abrupt downside if that leadership falters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
CPI Computers, Periph and Others vs. Import Price (Leading Indicator) AI may put upward pressure on near-term CPI, especially in computers, peripherals and related electronics, as surging demand lifts the cost of chips, memory and other key components. Image: Deutsche Bank
The Math of Drawdowns – Recovery Requied to Break Even After a Portfolio Decline Cut a portfolio in half and you need to double it to break even. That is not bad luck, it is simple compounding working against you. The bigger the loss, the tougher the climb back. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains The bulls have history on their side. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S&P 500, like this year, has been followed by gains over the next year every single time, averaging 21%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move, it tends to last. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sector ETF Flows Money is piling into tech. Since the S&P 500’s March 30 low, roughly $25 billion has flowed into tech sector ETFs, while non-tech sector ETFs have seen about $4 billion in combined outflows. Old habits die hard. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Number of U.S. IPOs 40 U.S. companies have gone public so far this year, while Goldman Sachs expects roughly 100 IPOs to raise about $160 billion in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and recent equity market volatility have kept issuance in check. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance – % Difference vs. the 200-DMA The S&P 500 is trading about 11% above its 200-day moving average, not far from past peaks. The further it stretches, the more vulnerable it becomes to a consolidation, or a move back toward the average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index vs. 40-Week Moving Average The 40-week moving average offers a straightforward way to manage S&P 500 exposure. Add risk when the index trades above it. Trim risk when it falls below. Process matters more than panic. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After Nine Week Wins Streaks A 9-week win streak tends to have legs. In 9 out of 10 cases, the S&P 500 has moved higher in the next month, suggesting June could extend the run. Over the next year, gains showed up 8 times out of 10, with a median rise of…