Category: Blog

U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity drawdowns often follow. Image: BCA Research

Gold Net Speculative Positioning Speculative positioning in gold has reversed sharply in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs still sees prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes at the current level, US equities went on to deliver negative real returns, averaging roughly −2.6% a year. Image: Real…

S&P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&P 500 has weathered the Fed’s first rate hike better than investors might expect. Following an initial 25 bp move, the index often stumbles early but, in every cycle since 1990, has been higher a year later. Image: Carson Investment Research

Survey – Where Do You Expect the S&P 500 Index to Be in the Next 12 Months? Half of BCA’s clients see the S&P 500 up 10% or more over the next year, backed by AI-fueled earnings, light corporate leverage and good-old FOMO. Just 13% brace for a double-digit drop. Image: BCA Research

Bond Volatility – MOVE Index Stocks remain sensitive to every move in yields, but falling rate volatility could clear a path higher for the S&P 500, even with interest rates still elevated. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S.-Listed Spot-Gold ETF Weekly Flows Gold ETFs are back in favor, with money flowing in again as retail demand firms, central banks keep buying, and the macro backdrop turns more supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities

Largest Contributors to the YTD Change in NTM EPS for MSCI AC World Most of the Technology sector’s positive earnings revisions have come from its more cyclical areas, particularly semiconductors and related hardware. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Household Equity Ownership by Wealth Percentile The American Dream has a widening gap. The top 1% now hold about half of U.S. market wealth. The bottom half hold just 1%. The gap has widened since 1990, fueling growing frustration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has largely tracked software stocks in recent years. The reset earlier this year has turned into a rebound, and both have cleared near-term resistance to establish short-term uptrends.. Image: Topdown Charts