Category: Blog

U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather than the start of a deep bear market. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 8.3% on average over the…

S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is surging into territory that has some investors on edge, firmly in what many would call the danger zone. For now, momentum still favors the upside, but any reversal could quickly raise red flags. Image: Topdown Charts

Gold Price Gold is trading lower in part because higher inflation risk is keeping interest rates higher for longer, which hurts non‑yielding assets like gold even amid volatility and geopolitical stress. Image: MarketDesk Research

Aggregate U.S. Dollar Position, Non-Commercial Traders Rising Middle East tensions and a jump in energy prices have pushed speculators back into the U.S. dollar, marking their first net-long position of the year. No surprise there: the greenback usually shines when global risks rise. Image: Bloomberg

Monthly Brent Oil Price Oil prices face greater upside than downside risk in the near term, with Brent likely to stay elevated if disruptions persist. Given how slowly such issues tend to ease, the balance of risk points higher for now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings remain strong. Short-term fear rarely changes the long-term story. Image: Real Investment Advice

Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for 2026 easing has risen significantly. Cuts aren’t off the table, just harder to justify now. Image: The Daily Shot

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings has cooled slightly in recent weeks but remains positive overall amid ongoing optimistic outlooks for the full year. The optimism is still there, but a bit more measured now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has often mirrored free cash flow trends closely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research