Global Debt Hits a Fresh Record Global debt keeps climbing, set to breach $350 trillion this year. A reminder that fiscal discipline and global coordination remain crucial to preventing financial shocks. Image: International Monetary Fund
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The U.S. dollar slid through 2025, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. The weaker greenback is easing pressure on emerging‑market borrowers with dollar debt and lifting dollar‑denominated commodities. Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day After a roaring year for the S&P 500, bears are sick of 2025, fed up like cats on bath day, and now they’re charging after bulls as if it’s their New Year’s resolution! Happy New Year, Everyone! 🥳🎉
U.S. Budget Deficit as a % of GDP The U.S. administration’s strong interest in rate cuts is largely driven by the need to make financing the enormous deficit more sustainable. By lowering rates, the government can reduce borrowing costs and ease the budgetary pressure. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. GDP vs. S&P 500 EPS With GDP growth and S&P 500 earnings moving in lockstep, vigilance is warranted. Valuations are lofty, forecasts are rosy, and history shows that when the economy cools, earnings don’t stay hot for long. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years rarely bring comfort to investors, but history still leans bullish. U.S. stocks tend to outperform in a President’s second term, as many view market dips as buying opportunities before the usual third-year rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Gold has jumped beyond $4,000, but investors in the largest gold miners ETF are heading for the exits, wary of chasing the highs. Contrarians, meanwhile, smell opportunity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average Strategist Year-End S&P 500 Forecast Wall Street’s top strategists are unusually in sync, calling for the S&P 500 to extend its run in 2026 amid solid earnings, a supportive rate backdrop, and steady AI-fueled momentum. Image: Bloomberg
7-10 Year Government Bonds, Total Return in US$ Since the tech war began, Chinese government bonds have outperformed their U.S., German and Japanese counterparts, delivering higher total returns in recent years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Three-Year Total Returns of MSCI World Sector Indexes Tech and Communication Services sectors have dominated global equity returns in recent years, lifted by a surge in AI-driven innovation across hardware, software, and digital infrastructure. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Valuation – S&P 500 Index – BEst P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s P/E stands one standard deviation above its five-year average, flashing a mild overvaluation warning. But markets can stay pricey for a while, so it’s a yellow light, not a red one. Image: Bloomberg