Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often fade faster than people expect. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this level, the squeeze could trim global GDP growth by roughly 0.3pp over the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Global Crude Oil Export Global crude exports have tumbled as conflict flares across the Middle East, rattling supply routes. Analysts see several weeks of disruption but some relief ahead if tensions cool. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment softens into the midterms. Image: Ned Davis Research
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Weight of Top 10 Holdings in Each Country’s ETF The dominance of the top 10 U.S. stocks has raised alarms about market concentration, but a look across other major economies shows the U.S. isn’t as top-heavy as many believe. Image: Carson Investment Research
Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets a lift, Treasuries draw buyers unless energy prices spiral, and equities typically retreat. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward Earnings Per Share U.S. corporate earnings have led the pack in recent years, but overseas profits are finally closing the gap. That momentum shift could mark an important turning point, one that opens opportunities in international large-caps. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with a lag, showing up in valuations roughly a year down the road. Image: Bloomberg