Fed Funds Rate Path Implied by the Median Dots The Fed is signaling higher rates for longer, with a two-hike baseline for 2026, a 2029 median fed-funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a neutral rate of 3.25%. Long-duration assets and leveraged trades are now facing a tougher road. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Dividends as % of Capital Expenditures The AI and infrastructure boom has pushed capex higher, but dividends have grown faster. The dividends-to-capex ratio has risen from 20% in the late 1990s to 50% today. U.S. equities remain an income-oriented market. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too rich. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this time different? Image: Carson Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil drives inflation, rate hikes barely move the dial. Image: CME Group
S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap to bonds largely intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance on the Week of FOMC Meetings U.S. stocks have whipsawed through recent FOMC meetings, but the average week still closes in the green. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 PEG Ratio Fwd P/E? Rich. PEG? Cheap, because long-term earnings-growth estimates are the highest since 1995. That low PEG is just blockbuster growth expectation. A recession or an AI-spending slowdown could quickly turn that narrative. Image: Real Investment Advice