S&P 500 and Crude Oil Since the conflict erupted in the Middle East, the S&P 500 has been moving almost opposite to oil, showing a striking 91% inverse correlation. When crude rises, investors often worry about squeezed U.S. consumers and slower growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance When Q1 Low Breaks the December Low Close When the S&P 500 sinks below its December low in the first quarter, history tends to flash a warning light. On average, U.S. stocks have gained only 0.2% for the full year when that happens. Image: Carson Investment Research
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading 56% above its estimated medium‑term fair value. Apart from the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this overbought, leaving room for downside if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events U.S. stocks have a habit of looking past turbulence in oil. After past geopolitical flare-ups, the S&P 500 has usually pushed higher, and this episode could follow the same script. Image: TS Lombard
Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count Goldman Sachs has toughened its base case for the Strait of Hormuz, now expecting 21 days of minimal crude flows followed by a month‑long recovery toward normal levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar (Measured by Inflation): Invested vs. Uninvested Gold hasn’t lost its glow, but U.S. stocks have shone brighter since 1928. Look far enough ahead, and the edge moves to assets that build value, not just store it. Over time, innovation compounds more powerfully than preservation. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Year for the S&P 500 the Past 20 Years Over the past two decades, March 12 has often marked the bottom for U.S. stocks, with rebounds taking shape soon after. History doesn’t always repeat itself, but investors know it tends to rhyme. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity (Leading Indicator) G10 excess liquidity, the gap between real money growth and economic growth, is climbing again as it returns to post‑pandemic highs and gives U.S. stocks fresh support. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Sentiment and Valuations Cracks are emerging as S&P 500 sentiment and valuation indicators are slipping from stretched territory, a move investors should keep an eye on. Markets rarely stay overheated for long. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index vs. S&P 500 Index – Two-Year Performance Spread Investors’ rush from tech to value has driven one of the deepest performance gaps between the market-cap and equal-weighted indexes since the pandemic era. After years in the shadows, value stocks are finally getting some love. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Corp Investment Grade All Sectors OAS A widening OAS for investment grade debt is typically a bearish signal for U.S. equities. That’s not what stock bulls want to see. Image: TS Lombard