WTI Crude Oil and Recessions When oil prices surge, sometimes doubling, it’s often a red flag for the U.S. economy. History shows these jumps tend to foreshadow recessions, making crude a key gauge for investors watching for signs of a slowdown. Image: Yahoo Finance
Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a geopolitical risk premium. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would linger and growth would take a bigger hit. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns March and April have a history of treating U.S. stocks well, as seasonal tailwinds lift sentiment. Maybe a dose of spring optimism is making the rounds on trading desks. History, for now, is on the bulls’ side. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Reaction to Previous Military Escalations The headlines may be dramatic, but the market impact is likely to be muted. U.S. equities wobble at first, then settle once investors refocus on fundamentals. In the end, short-term jitters rarely outweigh strong fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 – Performance of Largest 10 Stocks vs. Next 40 Stocks The S&P 500’s top 10 giants are lagging the next 40 stocks this year, contributing to the cap-weighted index’s weak gains amid high concentration. Concentration helps on the way up, but it hurts when leaders stumble. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Quantitative…
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events Major geopolitical shocks can rattle investors, but U.S. stocks have a long track record of bouncing back, with median six‑month gains over 5% since World War II. Staying invested often pays off after the dust settles. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 1500 Software & Services Median Shorts Short bets on software stocks have climbed to their highest level since the GFC, even as many firms keep turning in solid revenue growth. That crowding could spark painful squeeze rallies if the group starts to recover. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.48%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
S&P 500 Dispersion While the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, the action under the hood tells a different story: the realized volatility spread between the average S&P 500 stock and the index has reached its highest level on record. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events often rattle markets, but history shows U.S. stocks usually bounce back and push higher as investors look beyond the turmoil, showing that patience remains the winning trade. Image: Carson Investment Research