Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations, and shifts in credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Net Margin Debt U.S. margin debt is hovering near record highs. That level of borrowing reflects strong risk appetite, but it also leaves the market more exposed to sharp pullbacks if stocks slide and leveraged investors rush to cut positions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs’ overall allocation to bonds sits in the 8th percentile, indicating little appetite for rates risk. Fixed income is simply not where they want exposure right now. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning At the 52nd percentile, sector positioning shows a market in balance, with no meaningful shift toward either cyclicals or defensives, pointing to a lack of strong conviction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance After Seven Week Wins Streaks Up >10% A seven-week winning streak and a double-digit gain tend to set the tone. Since 1950, US stocks have delivered an average 12-month return of 15.7% and never finished in the red. No wonder the bulls are smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Equities Since the start of the year, CTAs have cut equity exposure to the 49th percentile, but their positioning remains solidly long, pointing to a cautious but constructive stance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling 17.5% on average. The flip side is striking: one year after the low, stocks have been consistently higher,…
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard
GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and 2027 estimates are flat year to date. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The playbook is shifting. Image: Real Investment Advice