Ratio of Bitcoin to Production Cost Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to JPMorgan’s estimated $76,000 production cost, but the bank continues to see a bullish long-term path for the cryptocurrency. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Strong U.S. earnings expectations and resilient corporate profits are keeping recession fears at bay and bolstering market optimism.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth Earnings growth at the median S&P 500 company is running at 14%, its strongest pace in four years, helped by AI demand and more confident CEO guidance. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S.-Listed ETFs: Annual Flows Investors are piling into US-listed ETFs at a record pace. Inflows have reached nearly $1.3 trillion by the end of July, putting the year on track to break the $2 trillion mark. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual Total Return, Conditioned on Reported EPS Direction Earnings up? The S&P 500 only rallied 79% of those years. Earnings down? It still climbed 66% of the time. That’s because markets trade on expectations, not last quarter’s print. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After >10% Months When the S&P 500 explodes higher by more than 10% in a single month, as it did in April, bulls get excited for a reason. Since 1950, the market has been higher a year later 85% of the time, with a median gain of 17.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
EPS Revisions Since the start of the year, EPS revisions have trended higher across the S&P 500, STOXX 600 and Topix, with MSCI EM leading the way as confidence in 2026 earnings grows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Performance of Hyperscalers to S&P 500 Hyperscalers have been trapped in a two-year range versus the S&P 500. Now the question is whether they can break out while AI capex returns remain in doubt. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. IG Credit Spread IG credit spreads in the U.S. have widened lately, particularly across tech, as the market demands a higher premium for AI-driven capex, heavy debt supply, rising leverage, and uncertain returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Weekly Net Flow to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April, attracting $850 million after a hack that refocused attention on the risks of holding digital assets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started This bull market, born in October 2022, is now 3.8 years old. History shows that once a bull reaches the three-year mark, it tends to run for several more. The odds still favor more upside, even if bears aren’t ready to buy it. Image:…