Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Tech demand is showing the first faint signs of a pause. It’s far too early to call a change in trend, but investors are cautiously starting to rotate into cyclicals and defensives. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors have begun punishing U.S. sectors perceived as most exposed to AI-driven automation, even when those companies still show steady fundamentals, while rewarding the companies supplying the tools behind the boom. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Growth This was no ordinary quarter. Even after stripping out the “other income” boost from mark-to-market gains on private equity and venture stakes, S&P 500 earnings still jumped 31% year over year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Net Interest Expense as a % of Total Tax Revenue Washington is increasingly using tax revenue to cover its interest bill. Roughly 20% of federal receipts now goes toward debt service, the highest share of the modern era. Sooner or later, something will have to give. Image: Bloomberg
Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income Stocks now dominate household wealth. As a result, the equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the U.S. business cycle and a key driver of consumer spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500’s Average Annualized Return over the Next 10 Years, by Starting CAPE High starting valuations have often meant leaner returns. When the CAPE ratio was above 30, stocks gained just 1.4% a year on average over the following decade. With the CAPE now at 41.8, could stocks trail bonds for another decade? Image: Real…
Large Cap Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in large-cap consumer staples sits in the 13th percentile, with investors heavily underweight. Even a small lift in sentiment could be enough to spark a bounce. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 ex. Energy Year/Year EPS Growth Q2 earnings were remarkably strong, with AI infrastructure stocks once again driving gains across the S&P 500. But beneath the headline strength, the earnings picture remains highly concentrated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since the start of 2022, European banks have outpaced U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. In a market obsessed with AI and the Magnificent Seven, it’s a rare twist. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Flows into Gold Funds Demand for gold funds is picking up again as retail investors return to ETFs, central banks keep adding to their reserves and the macro backdrop continues to favor gold. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research