Underlying U.S. Real GDP Growth The AI-driven tech boom has kept the U.S. economy from slipping into recession in 2025, but whether the rally can last is far from certain—and a pullback in investment could quickly tip the balance. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Optimism over 2026 earnings is unusually high, increasing the risk of downward revisions in coming quarters. This marks the largest deviation from the long-term earnings growth trend. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Five Month Win Streaks History is on the bulls’ side: going back to 1950, five-month winning streaks in the S&P 500 have led to gains 93.3% of the time over the following year, with an average return of 12.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut In the absence of recession, U.S. equities typically perform strongly in the year after the Fed’s first rate cut, with cyclical sectors benefiting most from improved financial conditions and economic expansion. Image: Ned Davis Research
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator vs. Rolling 6-Month S&P 500 Return While Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.3, investors still have cash to put to work, leaving room for a cautiously bullish outlook in the near term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold in Real Terms Since 1969 Gold’s historically high real price today contrasts with the late-1990s dot-com bubble, when investor optimism sent money pouring into tech stocks, draining demand for gold and pushing its real price sharply lower. Image: Deutsche Bank
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 Equal-Weighted The performance of the average S&P 500 stock is tightly linked to interest rate swings. When uncertainty over rates rises, investors reassess risk, often driving sharper price moves. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consecutive Trading Days Without a 2% Drop in the S&P 500 While the S&P 500’s 108-session run without a 2% drop is striking, history offers several precedents of calm periods that were just as long—or even longer. Image: Bloomberg
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. equities have surged to record highs, even as the dollar remains under pressure amid mixed economic signals and policy shifts. Image: Bloomberg
Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research