Category: Blog

U.S. Current Account Balance as a % of GDP The U.S. current account deficit has been on a widening path since 2019 and looks poised to stay elevated into 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscalers are on pace to spend $4 trillion on capex by 2030, more than ten times what the Apollo program cost in today’s dollars, a bet that leaves little room for error. Image: Bloomberg

Retail Traders Average Portfolio Stock Allocation and Investment Managers Average Stock Exposure Over the past two decades, periods when both retail and professional traders were this heavily long have often been followed by S&P 500 underperformance in the following one to three months. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Average Return in December With the holidays in sight, buyers are starting to reappear. History shows U.S. stocks often find a floor around mid-December and rally into year-end, a seasonal lift the bulls never seem to tire of. Image: Carson Investment Research

Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio for the S&P 500 The Shiller CAPE has pushed above 40, approaching the 44-times peak seen at the height of the dot-com frenzy. Such rich valuations have often signaled markets running hot. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

Gold vs. 1970s Gold has been shining bright, but it’s nowhere near the late-1970s gold rush. Investors might want to keep an open mind. Image: Bloomberg

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in December As the holidays approach, buyers usually return and the year-end rally tends to pick up speed in the second half of December. Historically, U.S. stocks have climbed an average of 1.4% during the month. Image: Carson Investment Research

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The broad market is quietly rotating: the S&P 500 is just below its October highs, but small caps and the average stock are outperforming, while mega-cap growth and Tech soften. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Trend Channel Valuations may look stretched, but the S&P 500 has held a steady 22.7% annualized uptrend since October 2022 and now sits near the bottom of that trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Valuation Multiples With valuations lofty and expectations running high, U.S. stocks look exposed if earnings or the economy disappoint. Image: Real Investment Advice

Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events The Dow Jones closed at another record high. While the usual chorus warns of bubbles and busts, U.S. stocks keep tuning out the noise, proving once again that patience is still the strongest trade. Image: Carson Investment Research