When Do You Expect a Ceasefire to Be Reached Between the U.S. and Iran? Investors are largely treating the Middle East conflict as a temporary shock, with most expecting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of April. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate Markets are now pricing in a meaningful chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, something that looked very unlikely at the start of the year. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The unemployment rate moving above its three-year average has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950. The latest crossover came in June 2024. Since then, no recession has followed, raising questions if this time is different. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits History favors the bulls. Every time the S&P 500 has dropped more than 15% in a year and then roared back with double‑digit gains, the next year also posted double‑digit returns, without exception since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance After Oil Shocks On average, U.S. equities have tended to be under pressure in the months following major oil shocks, though the pattern is not uniform and depends heavily on whether the shock is large, persistent, and tied to broader macro stress. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Index and BB to 10-Year Treasury Spread Keeping an eye on the junk to Treasury bond spread can reveal how healthy the U.S. market really is, and where it might be going next. The bond market usually sends signals before stocks react. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 -10% Or More Annual Declines Are Rare Double-digit declines in the S&P 500 during a calendar year are rare, but they never come out of nowhere. Since 1928, they’ve occurred only twelve times, and each drop came with its own story. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and DXY Weighted 2-Year Rate Differential The U.S. dollar’s recent gains have been surprisingly modest, given the backdrop. In fact, rate differentials still argue for a softer greenback. Image: TS Lombard
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future inflation higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank