S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5% year-to-date, September through December rallied 91% of the time, with an average 5.6% return. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Equity Market Capitalization Since ChatGPT launched, multiple expansion has contributed 25% of the surge in U.S. market cap, crushing the equity risk premium and leaving little room for error if AI demand or earnings disappoint. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates, not their level, that has driven equity returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years. Welcome to the cost of long-term alpha in semis. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Share of Mutual Funds Outperforming Benchmarks 42% of large-cap mutual funds are beating their benchmarks, still above the long-term average of 37%. The catch? Most managers who beat the market one period can’t do it again the next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent Seven Minus S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven EPS Growth After years of leading, the Magnificent Seven’s EPS growth has cooled to the point where the rest of the S&P 500 is now growing faster, reversing the 2023–2025 dynamic. Image: J.P. Morgan
FX Impact from AI Disruption to Services As AI pushes the marginal cost of cognitive work lower, the UK stands out: its services-heavy economy leaves sterling the most exposed to disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Risk Premium In the U.S., the equity risk premium has shrunk to the point where stocks barely compensate investors for taking risk over bonds. That weakens the bull case for equities and sets the stage for more disappointment. Image: The Daily Shot
Change in Consensus 2026 S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 surged, with upward revisions accelerating after the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted, even as geopolitical and macro risks climbed. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
$100,000 over 30 Years: The Fund vs. The Average Investor U.S. funds returned an annualized 8.2%, but the average investor earned only about 7.0%. Much of the gap came from poor timing: buying after prices had risen and selling after they fell. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the past three months, buyback announcements have been led by Financials, Tech and Industrials, which together make up most of the repurchase activity in U.S. equities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation