Category: Blog

S&P 500 Return During July July has been kind to U.S. stocks, rising for 11 straight years and delivering an average gain of 3.2%. Can the streak continue? Image: Carson Investment Research

Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are on pace for 38% earnings growth this year, versus 19% for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech momentum still running hot, betting against them looks like a tough trade. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Revision to Consensus Hyperscaler Year/Year Capex Growth 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000 – YTD Change in Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500’s year-to-date total return has been driven entirely by earnings growth, while the Russell 2000’s advance has come roughly half from multiple expansion and half from earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Growth Expectations Analysts have rarely been this bullish on S&P 500 earnings heading into Q2 2026, a level typically seen only after recessions or at the start of a new cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Gross Proceeds from U.S. IPOs At midyear, 2026 has already matched 2021’s full-year record, with roughly $120 billion raised in U.S. IPOs. The window is wide open, but keeping that momentum through year-end will not be easy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss can pull everything down. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up 5% to 10% by midyear, it has finished the year higher 93.8% of the time, with an average gain of nearly 14%, giving bulls plenty of reason to stay optimistic. Image: Carson Investment…

Gold Drawdown from Its Trailing Previous Peak Gold has just suffered one of its steepest pullbacks in more than a decade. The drop looks less like the start of a lasting reversal and more like a classic flush after a prolonged rally. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns on heavy AI spending and stayed wary of a hawkish Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation