S&P 500 Peak-To-Trough Decline After Major Issuance Booms Major U.S. equity issuance booms tend to follow late-cycle optimism. On its own, that is more a caution flag than a sell signal. It carries more weight when it appears alongside other late-cycle cracks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and Trend Channels What we are seeing in U.S. stocks looks more like consolidation than the start of a lasting downturn, with investors digesting recent gains and adjusting their outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 Infrastructure has driven the AI rally, with chip giants, data center builders and cloud platforms capturing the upside while software and productivity names fall behind. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Share Buyback Announcements Global share buybacks show no signs of slowing, as steady earnings keep the pipeline full. For shareholders, that’s a supportive backdrop, and unless profits falter, the momentum looks durable. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Capex as % of Cash Flow from Operations All signs point to hyperscalers reinvesting nearly all operating cash flow into capex, a tailwind for infrastructure suppliers but a potential headwind for equity returns if free cash flow fails to recover. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Tech Media Telecom Valuations vs. ROE Investors are still willing to pay a premium for U.S. tech, media, and telecom stocks, and with robust returns on equity, those valuations look broadly justified. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Energy Group Positioning Energy sits in the 91st percentile on positioning, firmly in overweight territory. With strong earnings momentum largely priced in, the sector looks exposed if oil prices soften. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index vs. Insider Sells Insider selling usually rises with the market, as higher prices prompt executives to lock in gains. Lately, though, selling has cooled even as equities climb, pointing to a reduced appetite to take profits. Image: Bloomberg
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are tranquil, systematic strategies tend to stay aggressively long equities to capture steady upside, a positioning that can unwind sharply when volatility comes back. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Issuance Surge in U.S. equity issuance has a habit of picking up near tops or as the cycle begins to turn. It is more a yellow flag than a call to exit. For now, strength in large-cap earnings and narrow leadership continue to provide support. Image: Real Investment Advice
Nine Day Win Streaks for the S&P 500 Nine-day winning streaks have been a reliable bullish signal for the S&P 500. In every instance since 1990, the index has been higher 12 months later, delivering an average gain of 16.7%, a track record that keeps bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research