S&P 500 Returns After >10% Months When the S&P 500 explodes higher by more than 10% in a single month, as it did in April, bulls get excited for a reason. Since 1950, the market has been higher a year later 85% of the time, with a median gain of 17.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
EPS Revisions Since the start of the year, EPS revisions have trended higher across the S&P 500, STOXX 600 and Topix, with MSCI EM leading the way as confidence in 2026 earnings grows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Performance of Hyperscalers to S&P 500 Hyperscalers have been trapped in a two-year range versus the S&P 500. Now the question is whether they can break out while AI capex returns remain in doubt. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. IG Credit Spread IG credit spreads in the U.S. have widened lately, particularly across tech, as the market demands a higher premium for AI-driven capex, heavy debt supply, rising leverage, and uncertain returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Weekly Net Flow to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April, attracting $850 million after a hack that refocused attention on the risks of holding digital assets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started This bull market, born in October 2022, is now 3.8 years old. History shows that once a bull reaches the three-year mark, it tends to run for several more. The odds still favor more upside, even if bears aren’t ready to buy it. Image:…
Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle than a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 After spending two months stuck in a narrow range, the S&P 500 broke decisively higher during earnings season. Investors had been underpositioned for the strength of earnings and were now scrambling to catch up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of keeping up in the AI race. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings growth is set to accelerate from 25% in Q1 to 34% in Q2, a pace rarely seen outside the early stages of an economic recovery. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance After ≥ 12% Over the First 150 Trading Days of the Year The S&P 500 has gained 12% or more in its first 150 trading days on 22 occasions since 1950. While 3-month returns tended to cool after such strong runs, performance usually improved over the following 6 to 12 months. Image:…