Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by this much, investors are more comfortable paying rich valuations. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Fair Value Model The 10-year U.S. Treasury is yielding about 4.7%, roughly 40 basis points above its fair-value estimate of 4.3%. That spread favors mean-reversion trades over outright directional bets. Image: Alpine Macro
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor bonds over equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
SpaceX and Median of 20 Largest IPOs on Nasdaq Wall Street’s old joke that IPO stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced” feels a little less funny now, but not entirely wrong. SpaceX is lagging most other large IPOs. A great business isn’t automatically a great buy. Image: Bloomberg
Real U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Y/Y Growth In recent quarters, U.S. consumers have continued to reallocate spending toward experience‑driven categories like travel, dining and recreation, even as overall services spending growth has cooled. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) Relative to Cap-Weight S&P 500 (SPY) As megacap leadership fades, market breadth is improving. This isn’t an outflow from equities. It’s just a rotation out of concentration. Image: Real Investment Advice
The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections History has been kind to investors after midterms. In all 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher nine months later every time. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio On the Shiller CAPE, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere, the kind that thrills investors on the way up and has a habit of burning them on the way down. Levels like this have a track record of slimmer returns and higher risk. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM August rivals May as the worst month for equity outflows from mutual funds and ETFs. As geopolitical risk builds, should investors start buying protection?. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Tech Sector Flows Despite the pullback in tech names, the money isn’t leaving: Tech inflows persist and semi ETFs are still seeing heavy volume. This looks like a consolidation, not the end of the tech/AI trade. Image: Strategas Asset Management
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) On a 10-year rolling annualized basis, U.S. equities have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins since the 1920s and 1950s. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research