S&P 500 Performance After A >10% Q2 Quarter History leans very bullish. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in Q2, the rest of the year has finished in the red just once. Average gains come in near 12%, a track record that keeps bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Valuations don’t matter until they do. Across 150 years of market history, stretched valuations have been a reliable warning sign, with each of the past three peaks followed by a decade of negative real returns. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) With S&P 500 profit margins holding near 13% and rates still low, equity valuations have more room to breathe. Goldman Sachs now expects 7% annual returns over the coming decade, lifting its long‑term call from 3% back in 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex, Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Big Tech’s five hyperscalers are now investing beyond their operating cash flow. The narrative has flipped from “can they afford it?” to whether the AI buildout can justify the bill. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Russell 2000 Forward 12-Month P/E The Russell 2000 is full of unprofitable companies, which makes its forward 12-month P/E look pricey at 33x. Strip out the loss-makers, and it falls to 16x. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Goldman Sachs thinks Wall Street is too conservative on 2027 hyperscaler capex, with the AI spending boom likely to run hotter for longer. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Equity positioning looks stretched. Asset managers have pushed long exposure in U.S. stock futures to its highest level, showing stronger risk appetite but also leaving the market more vulnerable if something goes wrong. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Return During July July has been kind to U.S. stocks, rising for 11 straight years and delivering an average gain of 3.2%. Can the streak continue? Image: Carson Investment Research
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are on pace for 38% earnings growth this year, versus 19% for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech momentum still running hot, betting against them looks like a tough trade. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Revision to Consensus Hyperscaler Year/Year Capex Growth 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000 – YTD Change in Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500’s year-to-date total return has been driven entirely by earnings growth, while the Russell 2000’s advance has come roughly half from multiple expansion and half from earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research