MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ America’s equity outperformance topped out in 2022. U.S. growth still looks solid, but lofty valuations suggest tougher performance ahead, arguing for a more balanced global allocation in 2026. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government bonds. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based On What The First Five Days Do A bullish start to the year for the S&P 500 lifts investor spirits. When the index is up more than 1% in the first 5 trading days, it has historically led to stronger annual returns, averaging 15.7% and ended higher 87% of the…
S&P 500 Seasonality While seasonality in the S&P 500 always tells a story, midterm years rank as the weakest in the four-year presidential cycle but still deliver positive returns more often than not. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections U.S. stocks have a history of pushing higher toward bull market peaks before eventually pulling back. In such periods, corrections tend to be brief, with rebounds coming faster than during deeper bear cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio U.S. tech stocks continue to trade at a steep premium versus the rest of the market, despite the recent pullback. Supportive fiscal and monetary winds could help narrow that gap. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Optimism for 2026 earnings remains high after years of market gains and profit growth, but history shows confidence tends to waver once forecasts meet reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based How the Santa Claus Rally Does A missing Santa Claus rally is rarely good news. Since 1950, years that skipped the festive lift have averaged only 6.1% gains. For bulls, that’s a warning sign that 2026 could be choppier. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Positioning Indicator With U.S. equity positioning largely neutral, there’s room for investors to lean back into risk. Market conditions remain supportive for risk-on moves. Image: TS Lombard
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Goldman Sachs’s top-down valuation model points to a 21x forward P/E for the S&P 500 at end-2026, a step down from 22x as oil volatility and macro headwinds cloud the picture. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers aren’t back to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with growth resilient, easier policy, and profits steady, the rally might still have legs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research