Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings growth to cool to 6% in 3Q 2025 from 11% in 2Q, but Goldman Sachs thinks the bar may be set too low, pointing to stronger sales momentum and likely upside surprises from the Magnificent Seven. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls welcome October’s new highs, knowing the fourth quarter has been kind: markets have risen more than 90% of the time, with average gains of 4.9% going back to 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold ETF Holdings The surge in Western gold ETF holdings tells a story of fragile nerves and strong convictions—uncertain macro signals, anticipated rate cuts, and a search for safety pushing both private investors and central banks deeper into bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio For a while, valuations look irrelevant—until they dictate everything. Over the past 150 years, stretched multiples have reliably led to leaner returns, with the last three peaks leaving investors underwater in real terms over the next ten years. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally The age-old adage “cash is king” looks increasingly dated. Non-bank investors have slashed their cash holdings to the lowest levels since at least 1999, leaving financial markets more exposed to shocks. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Earnings Unlike some past bull runs, this year’s rally in U.S. stocks has been driven more by solid earnings growth than by rising valuation multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After The Top 15 September Returns Ever Bears expecting a rough September were left flat-footed. Instead, the S&P 500 posted its 14th-strongest monthly rally since 1950, giving bulls fresh reason to hope for momentum into the fourth quarter. Image: Carson Investment Research
Approximate Lifespan of Historical Bubbles, from Run-Up to Peak Financial bubbles rarely pop overnight. They typically build for years, fueled by speculative mania, until late-arriving investors rush in at the top—only to see their gains wiped out when the bubble bursts. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Government Shutdowns vs. the S&P 500 For all the political drama, U.S. markets have historically treated government shutdowns as little more than noise, with brief volatility giving way to quick rebounds. Image: Bloomberg