Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning The cyclical-minus-defensive sectors positioning at the 24th percentile indicates a defensive market stance, with investors heavily favoring sectors less sensitive to the economic cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $60/56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, with a further decline to an annual average of $56/$52 per barrel in 2026, reflecting increased global supply from OPEC+. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed S&P 500 Return – Market Hours vs. Overnight Nearly all of the S&P 500’s recent sharp downturn occurred overnight, while the recovery and rally happened mainly during regular U.S. trading hours, fueled by corporate earnings and shifts in investor sentiment throughout the day. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision The 2025 EPS revision trend follows historical patterns. With high initial estimates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should stay alert for possible further downward adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent 6 (ex. NVDA) vs. S&P 493 Quarterly EPS YoY Growth The gap in EPS growth between mega-cap tech and the S&P 493 widened during 1Q 2025, as strong tech earnings and upward revisions contrasted with more cautious or downward-trending guidance for the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nominal GDP as % World for Important Countries/Regions The Global South is rapidly emerging as the primary driver of global demographic and economic growth. For investors and businesses, it presents expanding markets and new opportunities that will be increasingly difficult to ignore. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar Exposure of Currency Hedge Funds Hedge funds have significantly increased their bearish bets against the U.S. dollar, reflecting widespread expectations that the dollar will weaken further against other major currencies. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread Widening credit spreads often signal upcoming declines in the S&P 500, serving as a valuable leading indicator of equity market stress because they typically react early to shifts in market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Ratio to 1-Year MA vs. S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 market pricing broadly aligns with Deutsche Bank’s Q2 earnings growth forecast. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – Average P/E for Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500 As equity markets rally and valuations climb, markets become more susceptible to negative surprises. This has led many investors and analysts to worry about stretched prices and limited margin for error. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings S&P 500 earnings growth in Q1 2025 was robust. Although earlier forecasts anticipated slower growth, actual results surpassed expectations, showing only a mild deceleration while maintaining double-digit gains. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation