U.S. Payrolls and Recessions U.S. payroll growth rarely dips this low without a recession. It slowed sharply in late 2025, but analysts expect a rebound this year as productivity gains, Fed rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus lift GDP growth. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past 22 Presidents Nearly a year into Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 has surged more than 16%, shaking off tariff headwinds. Bulls are smiling, betting on robust earnings and solid economic data to keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
Top-Down Estimates of Earnings per Share Growth (S&P 500, STOXX 600, TOPIX, MXAPJ) After years of rallies fueled by soaring multiples, especially in tech and AI sectors, 2026 could see fundamentals take the lead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Corporate America is minting profits like never before, and with margins set to stretch even further into 2026, the bullish narrative remains intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Financial Sector’s Profit vs. Labour Demand With so much of finance built on information processing, the sector may soon stand as the clearest example of how AI can lift earnings without lifting headcount. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally “Cash is king” is starting to sound like a relic. Non-bank investors globally are holding less cash than at any time since at least 1999, leaving financial markets exposed to sudden shocks. Image: J.P. Morgan
Silver to Oil Ratio Silver’s rally has gone so far that an ounce can now buy a barrel of oil. It’s a rare moment that may not last if crude recovers or silver takes a breather after parabolic gains. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Performance for Gold Gold often starts the year strong, with January usually one of its best months as post-holiday portfolio adjustments and fresh investment flows boost demand. Image: Deutsche Bank
5-Year Turnover of S&P 500 Constituents In a typical five-year stretch, about 20% of S&P 500 members turn over, a reminder of how tough it is to stay in the game for the long haul. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Components of S&P 500 Total Return Corporate profits carried much of the load for the S&P 500 in 2025, powering most of the index’s gains. In 2026, earnings look set to stay behind the wheel, steering another year of momentum. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Which Will Perform Best in 2026? More portfolio managers see the “S&P 493” gaining ground on the Magnificent 7 this year, with fundamentals improving and valuation spreads closing amid worries over index concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research