Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a pullback if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice
History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years The AI rally is powering investor enthusiasm, with semiconductor names among the biggest winners. It’s also reviving talk of past hype cycles and whether the run can last. Image: BCA Research
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility and pullbacks, even if they rarely offer precise timing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Effective Corporate Tax Rate Corporate tax rates have fallen since the 1980s in many markets, with little movement in the past few years. That tailwind has often translated into higher dividends and increased buybacks, reinforcing equity market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Average Closing Price Under a high‑price stress scenario, Brent could climb past 120 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and still average close to 100 dollars through 2027 if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Are U.S. long-bond yields on the verge of breaking above their post-2007 ceiling? The level around 5% could give way if inflation stays sticky, demand for long-duration remains weak, or the Fed keeps policy tight. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way from the 800 bps that typically signals recession risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – U.S. Hyperscalers 12-Month Forward P/E U.S. hyperscalers are trading at decade-low valuations, tempting bargain hunters. But doubts about AI spending and when those returns will arrive are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Image: BCA Research