S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average annual returns. Will 2026 extend the winning streak with another round of outsized gains well above 10%? For now, the odds favor the bulls. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are priced for perfection, with valuations back in territory that has a habit of ending badly. Calling the turn is never easy, but when markets run this hot, even a modest slip in fundamentals can hit hard. Image: Bloomberg
Real Estate Positioning At the 89th percentile, real estate positioning is firmly overweight, leaving the trade at risk if yields climb or rate-hike expectations pick up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 52-week market breadth improved meaningfully last week, a development bulls tend to welcome since durable rallies usually require participation beyond a narrow cluster of names. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck in negative territory. That kind of skepticism can keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has eased from 23 to 21, largely on the back of stronger forward earnings estimates. Valuations look less stretched than they did in the fall, but that does not make equities cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) Record profitability is helping justify elevated S&P 500 valuations, with trailing four-quarter ROE at 22%, a historic high. But if margins come under pressure and ROE slips, that support could quickly weaken. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Potential Indicators of Exuberance Relative to History AI bubble worries are creeping back into the narrative. Investors are more bullish than usual, but sentiment points to late-cycle exuberance rather than a full-blown bubble. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Peak-To-Trough Decline After Major Issuance Booms Major U.S. equity issuance booms tend to follow late-cycle optimism. On its own, that is more a caution flag than a sell signal. It carries more weight when it appears alongside other late-cycle cracks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and Trend Channels What we are seeing in U.S. stocks looks more like consolidation than the start of a lasting downturn, with investors digesting recent gains and adjusting their outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan
Global Share Buyback Announcements Global share buybacks show no signs of slowing, as steady earnings keep the pipeline full. For shareholders, that’s a supportive backdrop, and unless profits falter, the momentum looks durable. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity