Category: Blog

S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth Earnings growth at the median S&P 500 company is running at 14%, its strongest pace in four years, helped by AI demand and more confident CEO guidance. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S.-Listed ETFs: Annual Flows Investors are piling into US-listed ETFs at a record pace. Inflows have reached nearly $1.3 trillion by the end of July, putting the year on track to break the $2 trillion mark. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Annual Total Return, Conditioned on Reported EPS Direction Earnings up? The S&P 500 only rallied 79% of those years. Earnings down? It still climbed 66% of the time. That’s because markets trade on expectations, not last quarter’s print. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Returns After >10% Months When the S&P 500 explodes higher by more than 10% in a single month, as it did in April, bulls get excited for a reason. Since 1950, the market has been higher a year later 85% of the time, with a median gain of 17.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research

EPS Revisions Since the start of the year, EPS revisions have trended higher across the S&P 500, STOXX 600 and Topix, with MSCI EM leading the way as confidence in 2026 earnings grows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Relative Performance of Hyperscalers to S&P 500 Hyperscalers have been trapped in a two-year range versus the S&P 500. Now the question is whether they can break out while AI capex returns remain in doubt. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. IG Credit Spread IG credit spreads in the U.S. have widened lately, particularly across tech, as the market demands a higher premium for AI-driven capex, heavy debt supply, rising leverage, and uncertain returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Weekly Net Flow to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April, attracting $850 million after a hack that refocused attention on the risks of holding digital assets. Image: Bloomberg

Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle than a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 After spending two months stuck in a narrow range, the S&P 500 broke decisively higher during earnings season. Investors had been underpositioned for the strength of earnings and were now scrambling to catch up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of keeping up in the AI race. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research