Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite is flagging 2026 as a bullish but choppy year, and for now, the market is playing along with that seasonal script. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 and Equity ETF Flows Equity ETFs remain money magnets, pulling in about $5.6 billion a day since the start of the year, up from $3.5 billion in 2025. Flows don’t lie: risk appetite is alive and well. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are calm, systematic strategies often stay heavily long equities to capture steady gains, a stance that can sting once volatility returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. earnings as growth concerns deepen, raising the risk of near-term pressure on stock valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. M2 Money Supply With M2 up 4.27% year on year, the money supply is lagging behind economic growth, pointing to cooling inflation rather than trouble. Image: Real Investment Advice
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return Since 1950, U.S. stocks have typically shone under a split Congress, posting an average annual gain of 15.1% as investors embrace the political gridlock that keeps sweeping policy changes in check. Image: Carson Investment Research
Markets – Average Daily Change: SPY, TLT, LQD, HYG, IBIT Is “Sell America” becoming the new market mantra? Europe could rattle investors if it strikes back with tariffs and its own trade bazooka. Image: Bloomberg
Bond Fund Flows (Last 4 Weeks) Bond funds keep drawing strong inflows as investors look for yield and stability in a world of moderating inflation and lingering uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Annual Real S&P 500 Index and 3-Year Average Annual Return The S&P 500 sits about 18% above its three‑year average, a strong run by any measure, but past rallies this sharp rarely come without some turbulence ahead. Image: Real Investment Advice
January Barometer and S&P 500 Index Return Rest of Year When U.S. stocks end January in the green, momentum usually keeps rolling. Historically, a positive January has been followed by above-average returns 87% of the time, with a median return of 13.4% over the next 11 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Strong tech spending, policy support, and private-sector agility are keeping momentum alive despite shifting trade winds. Image: International Monetary Fund