S&P 500 and U.S. IPO Activity The IPO market is showing signs of life. A pickup in U.S. listings, paired with improving sentiment in global equities, points to a more bullish medium-term outlook for new issues. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Investors stomach average yearly pullbacks of around 14%, but the S&P 500 still closed higher in 35 of the past 46 years. Volatility, after all, is the price of admission for long-term gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change Margin debt on the NYSE has surged past $1.1 trillion, up nearly 40% YoY, marking one of the fastest spikes on record. Such rapid increases in borrowing, outpacing overall market gains, have often preceded market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High Bears are losing ground as history leans bullish. Since 1980, when the Fed has eased policy while the S&P 500 traded within 2% of an all‑time high, the index has risen every time in the next 12 months, averaging a 14.2% gain Image:…
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500 has diverged from bonds in December, largely ignoring the bond market selloff despite 10-year Treasury yields rising notably this month. Stocks seem more focused on solid earnings and the upbeat tone in tech than on rising rates. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Household Equity Ownership vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. households have never been this heavily invested in stocks. The higher the concentration, the greater the risk that a market pullback hits both confidence and consumption, reversing wealth effects. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Seven Month Win Streaks Seven winning months in a row? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has pulled that off 16 times and history says momentum like this rarely cools: nine out of ten times, the rally kept rolling over the next 6 months, posting an average 7% gain. Image: Carson Investment…
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well. However, a perceived “too dovish” cut, signaling excessive economic worry, could disrupt the ongoing year-end stock rally. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 S&P 500 performance tends to move in step with interest rate swings. When rate uncertainty builds, investors recalibrate risk, and volatility often follows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate – 2026 Year-End Rate Levels Expectations Deutsche Bank’s latest poll of 40 global market participants shows expectations for the fed funds rate at end-2026 anchored near 3.2%, regardless of whether Powell keeps rates unchanged or opts for a 25-basis-point cut today. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cyclicals vs. Defensives – 12-Month Forward P/E Premium Cyclical stocks are leading the way in 2025, leaving defensives behind as optimism returns to markets. In the U.S., that surge has lifted cyclicals to a valuation premium over safer plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research