Magnificent Seven Contribution to S&P 500 Returns The Magnificent Seven stocks have played a crucial role in driving the S&P 500’s performance in 2024, continuing the momentum from their remarkable gains in 2023. Image: Alpine Macro
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 4.10%. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar – Share of Global Currency Reserves Despite some countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar, it remains the dominant global reserve currency, accounting for 58% of total reserves, significantly surpassing the euro at 19.8% and the yen at 5.6%. Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The bulls are celebrating like kids with their favorite new gadget, thrilled by the S&P 500’s 1.10% jump to kick off the Santa Claus Rally! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Despite rising 10-year real U.S. Treasury yields indicating tighter financial conditions, the stock market remains unaffected due to favorable economic indicators, strong corporate earnings forecasts, and anticipated supportive monetary policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Treasury Index – Monthly Total Return The U.S. Treasury market has faced significant challenges in December, resulting in a near-flat performance for the year and leaving investors feeling as confused as a cat at a dog show! Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns during the Santa Claus Rally Bulls celebrate the Santa Claus Rally, which typically sees U.S. stock prices rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, this rally has averaged a gain of 1.3%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply The current high market capitalization of U.S. equities relative to M2 suggests that investors are anticipating very optimistic future earnings and a stable economic outlook. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to hit 4.35% by the end of 2025, diverging from current futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Policy Rate Forecasts Goldman Sachs’ 2025 forecast indicates a trend of continued monetary easing among major economies as central banks respond to evolving economic conditions while striving to stabilize growth and meet inflation targets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equities as a Percent of Financial Assets With favorable market conditions and increasing stock valuations, Americans now hold more than 37% of all assets in equities, marking a record high. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management