The World Economy – GDP by Country The United States has maintained its position as the world’s largest economy for over a century and is projected to continue this trend in 2025, unless, of course, aliens land and demand a trade deal! Image: Visual Capitalist
S&P 500 Valuation Metrics While the current forward P/E ratio of 21.6x for the S&P 500 is high by historical standards, it has moderated somewhat from its recent highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Equal Weight vs. S&P 500 The performance divergence of the S&P 500 index and its equal-weighted version highlights how a select group of high-flying, large-capitalization stocks is overshadowing broader market weaknesses. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Top 10 U.S. Companies by Market Capitalization Relative to Total The dominance of the top 10 U.S. companies in the S&P 500 Index raises concerns about the index’s ability to provide adequate diversification for investors. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio The projected surge in U.S. federal debt over the next three decades may adversely impact the economy, resulting in elevated interest payments, strained resources, and possible constraints on economic growth and government flexibility. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Corporate Bond Spreads U.S. corporate bond spreads are currently at historically tight levels, suggesting potential bubble-like conditions. While a major correction is not guaranteed, several factors indicate rising risks in the first half of 2025. Image: Alpine Macro
Cumulative Change in Real S&P 500 and Real Profits The widening gap between the real S&P 500 index and real corporate profits is raising red flags about a potential stock market bubble. Image: Real Investment Advice
Annual Total Returns While most markets average 5-10% returns annually, positive years can push this average to 10-15%, highlighting the potential for higher gains during favorable market conditions. Image: TS Lombard
MSCI World EPS The decline in MSCI AC World EPS consensus estimates for 2025 reflects a cautious stance among analysts as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape marked by slower growth and sector-specific challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity ETF Flows Inflows to U.S. equity ETFs as a percentage of S&P 500 market cap have reached elevated levels, reflecting strong investor confidence in U.S. equities. Image: J.P. Morgan Positioning Intelligence
Federal Debt Outstanding % GDP and Federal Interest Payments % GDP Recent interest rate cuts are easing federal interest expenses but raise concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, as interest payments are expected to increase significantly in the future. Image: TS Lombard