ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day While bulls have faced significant challenges this week due to limited rate cuts in 2025 and market volatility, bears are finding reasons to be optimistic about potential corrections in the near future. Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
U.S. Money Market Funds Following the Fed’s first rate cut, U.S. money market funds typically experience outflows within 12 months as investors rebalance portfolios and reassess risk in response to changing interest rates and market conditions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Bitcoin Annual Returns Over the past few years, Bitcoin has demonstrated a trend of three years of rising prices, followed by a significant decline in the fourth year. Can we expect this trend to continue in 2025? Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuations According to a macro model developed by Goldman Sachs, U.S. equities are suggested to be overvalued by more than 40%, raising concerns among market participants about long-term sustainability and future market corrections. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed has revised its 2025 projections, now anticipating only two rate cuts instead of four, with future reductions dependent on the progress made in managing inflation. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Stocks Above Their 20-Day Moving Average With only a small percentage of U.S. stocks trading above their 20-day moving average in a bull market, the S&P 500 index appears oversold, potentially signaling buying opportunities for investors Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment With bullish sentiment among investors in the U.S. stock market nearing an all-time high, we should start to include parachutes for the next monthly reports – just in case! Image: Topdown Charts
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, bears are now on dating apps looking for a bull! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index still in contraction territory and strongly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth, questions arise about the resilience of corporate earnings in 2025. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Within 2% of All-Time Highs Bulls rejoice! Since 1980, when the S&P 500 was within 2% of its all-time high during a Fed rate cut, it has been positive 100% of the time over the following 12 months, with an average gain of 13.9%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 Year-End Target While most strategists project a bullish 2025 for the S&P 500, a notable minority advocates for caution. This divergence in opinion could comfort investors wary of market euphoria. Image: BCA Research