Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) – Commodity Net Long Positioning While there are some pressures from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, the current landscape for gold positioning is marked by a robust bullish sentiment, with increasing net long positions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy while keeping inflation in check. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns After Long Streaks of More Decliners than Advancers Bulls have reason for optimism: since 1990, after long streaks of more decliners than advancers, the S&P 500 has been positive 87.5% of the time over the following 12 months, with an average gain of 14.8%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Indexed Return The Magnificent Seven have undeniably shaped the landscape of the S&P 500, contributing to its impressive performance this year while also introducing risks associated with market concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High-Yield Bond Returns 2024 has proven to be a terrific year for low-quality high yield investments, particularly within the CCC-rated cohort, which has seen returns exceeding 16%, as economic resilience exceeded expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Rates – Treasury Yield Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.65% by year-end 2025, driven by potential increased tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation, which may lead to stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Survey – Biggest Risks to the Current Relative Market Stability Investor sentiment for 2025 highlights four main concerns: a potential global trade war, a decline in U.S. tech stocks, persistent inflation leading to hawkish central bank policies, and unexpectedly rising bond yields. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 hitting record highs, it’s time for a mass bear deportation—after all, they clearly missed the memo that this party is strictly bull-only! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle The S&P 500’s four-year cycle suggests a positive first half of 2025 followed by a more challenging second half, as post-election years often see more restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings The S&P 500’s earnings trend remains robust, with projections indicating continued growth near the upper limits of its long-term trend channel. Image: Deutsche Bank