S&P 500 Returns After >15% YTD End of October Big years tend to end bigger. When the S&P 500 is already up more than 15% by October’s close, November and December combined have extended the rally nearly every time—20 out of 21 years, for an extra 4.7% gain on average. Image: Carson Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.94%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts At All-Time Highs Bulls are smiling for good reason: Every time since 1983, rate cuts with the S&P 500 at record highs have been a winning formula — stocks have risen a median 15.2% over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – 10-Year Real Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets love to stretch valuations to the limit, but history’s verdict is brutal: high CAPEs rarely end well over ten-year horizons. Image: Deutsche Bank
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate Earnings momentum isn’t cracking. With 85% of S&P 500 companies smashing earnings estimates so far, bulls are dancing while recession talk fades to a whisper. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Relative Regional Weights Within Global Equities Wall Street’s dominance isn’t a fresh story, but it’s hitting a new peak. Since the financial crisis, U.S. markets — supercharged by tech, record earnings, and a relentless dollar — have pulled far ahead of the pack. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Capitalization U.S. champions still dominate global markets — and history says that can last. Oil once held the throne for decades. Now Big Tech does it, rich in cash and light on leverage. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to sustain robust growth in 2026 and 2027, with core inflation steadily moving toward the Fed’s 2% target by the end of 2027 and unemployment slightly decreasing. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – MSCI World 12-Month Forward PE With valuations at 19.7 forward P/E, global stocks look expensive — not dot‑com crazy, but not exactly a bargain either. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. Margin Debt Rising margin debt fuels rallies and reflects strong investor confidence, but once it slips below key trendlines like the 12‑month average, it flags fading risk appetite and growing market fragility. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Post-Election Year for S&P 500 In post-election years, U.S. stocks often hit bottom by late October — before ripping higher into year-end, a seasonal gift Wall Street can’t resist. Image: Carson Investment Research