Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events can jolt markets, but U.S. equities have kept climbing as investors look beyond the headlines, rewarding those who stayed the course. Image: Carson Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex by Company U.S. hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $740 billion this year and nearly $1 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it no longer looks cyclical. It looks like a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint over the following decade. Image: Deutsche Bank
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than the market, the cycle is usually in its later stages. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years After a weak first quarter, the S&P 500 is tracking the familiar Trump-era playbook, with a rally still very much in play for the rest of the year. For now, bulls have little to complain about. Image: Carson Investment Research
Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is at one of its most accommodative levels in years, a friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank
Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Valuations don’t matter until they do. Across 150 years of market history, stretched valuations have been a reliable warning sign, with each of the past three peaks followed by a decade of negative real returns. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Net Profit Margin (Ex. Financials) With S&P 500 profit margins holding near 13% and rates still low, equity valuations have more room to breathe. Goldman Sachs now expects 7% annual returns over the coming decade, lifting its long‑term call from 3% back in 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex, Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Big Tech’s five hyperscalers are now investing beyond their operating cash flow. The narrative has flipped from “can they afford it?” to whether the AI buildout can justify the bill. Image: Deutsche Bank