U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Purchasing Power Parity Valuation On key valuation metrics, the US dollar is still rich. That leaves little room for a sustained rally, especially as foreign demand has cooled since Liberation Day and valuations are already at the top of the range. Image: TS Lombard
Spot Gold Gold is trading close to a seven-month low as a stronger dollar and expectations for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates keep pressure on the metal. Image: MarketDesk Research
Announced Buybacks on Wilshire 5000 This year, announced buybacks are heading past $2 trillion, a new record. But there is a gap between what companies say and what they actually do. In practice, actual buybacks lag far behind the promises. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Short Interest on the SPY and QQQ U.S. ETFs Short positions in the SPY and QQQ US ETFs remain muted, indicating limited appetite for downside speculation. The market is still more comfortable with upside than downside. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Magnificent Seven Stocks vs. S&P 500 – Cumulative Revenue Growth Since 2016 Since 2016, Mag 7 revenue has climbed 375%, versus 95% for the S&P 500. Earnings tell the same story. A flow-driven pullback can shake the tape, but it doesn’t change the decade-long compounding trend. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets When everyone is piled into equities and valuations are stretched, there isn’t much cushion left. History doesn’t say a crash has to follow, but it does show that markets priced for perfection rarely handle surprises well. Image: Topdown Charts
Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events can jolt markets, but U.S. equities have kept climbing as investors look beyond the headlines, rewarding those who stayed the course. Image: Carson Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex by Company U.S. hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $740 billion this year and nearly $1 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it no longer looks cyclical. It looks like a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint over the following decade. Image: Deutsche Bank
Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than the market, the cycle is usually in its later stages. Image: Real Investment Advice