Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for U.S. stocks, averaging just 2.1%. But when April rallies more than 5%, history flips the script: since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 6.6% gain, with a median return of 10%. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits declined to 1.372 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism and backed by confident management guidance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May – October) May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for the S&P 500, but the track record tells a different story. Over the past decade, the index has finished that period in the red just once, which should keep bulls comfortable. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Tech Sector Share Buyback Announcements There’s no sign of a pause in U.S. tech buybacks, as strong earnings keep the pipeline active. That’s a tailwind for shareholders, and as long as profits hold up, the pace is unlikely to fade. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains Following a powerful two-year run, the S&P 500 could bottom in the fall as markets test the new Fed chair, before pushing toward 7,700 by year-end as fundamentals improve. Image: Fundstrat
S&P 500 Returns Following Major Geopolitical Events History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually hurts more than the shock itself. Image: Real Investment Advice
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, double-digit annual losses in the S&P 500 have been the exception, not the rule, occurring only 12 times. Today, with record earnings, elevated margins, and sustained AI spending, momentum continues to favor higher prices. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Multiple – MSCI Regions, STOXX 600 and S&P 500 Markets may have pulled back, but valuations are still elevated worldwide. Strong earnings are doing the work, and as long as that continues, multiples are unlikely to crack. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research