Category: Blog

Fed Funds Rate The market’s baseline has shifted: traders see about 50 bp of Fed tightening over the next several months, something that would have been hard to believe in January. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 and Trend Strength by Market Cap US small caps are leading the breadth picture, with 67% now trading above the 200-day moving average, the highest reading since 2021. That’s a healthy signal, but it doesn’t guarantee the outperformance will last. Image: Hi Mount Research

Implied Vol for Individual Stocks in the S&P 500 vs. the Index There’s a wide gap between single-stock implied volatility, which remains elevated, and index volatility, which is more moderate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Purchasing Power Parity Valuation On key valuation metrics, the US dollar is still rich. That leaves little room for a sustained rally, especially as foreign demand has cooled since Liberation Day and valuations are already at the top of the range. Image: TS Lombard

Spot Gold Gold is trading close to a seven-month low as a stronger dollar and expectations for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates keep pressure on the metal. Image: MarketDesk Research

Announced Buybacks on Wilshire 5000 This year, announced buybacks are heading past $2 trillion, a new record. But there is a gap between what companies say and what they actually do. In practice, actual buybacks lag far behind the promises. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 – Short Interest on the SPY and QQQ U.S. ETFs Short positions in the SPY and QQQ US ETFs remain muted, indicating limited appetite for downside speculation. The market is still more comfortable with upside than downside. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity

Magnificent Seven Stocks vs. S&P 500 – Cumulative Revenue Growth Since 2016 Since 2016, Mag 7 revenue has climbed 375%, versus 95% for the S&P 500. Earnings tell the same story. A flow-driven pullback can shake the tape, but it doesn’t change the decade-long compounding trend. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets When everyone is piled into equities and valuations are stretched, there isn’t much cushion left. History doesn’t say a crash has to follow, but it does show that markets priced for perfection rarely handle surprises well. Image: Topdown Charts

Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events can jolt markets, but U.S. equities have kept climbing as investors look beyond the headlines, rewarding those who stayed the course. Image: Carson Investment Research

Hyperscaler Capex by Company U.S. hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $740 billion this year and nearly $1 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it no longer looks cyclical. It looks like a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research