Drawdown from 52 Week High of Various Global Tech Sectors or Tech Sensitive Indices Global tech and the usual tech‑sensitive indices are trading well below their 52‑week highs. This is the kind of year that follows a crowded AI trade, when investors finally see the bill for all that optimism. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Price vs. Market Pricing of 25bp Fed Hikes (Inverted) Gold struggles as energy‑driven inflation keeps Fed rate‑hike risks alive, lifting the dollar and real yields and capping near‑term gains for bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI Equity Indexes, Total Return in US$ Since Trump’s inauguration, U.S. equities have lagged their global peers, with Europe ahead by 12%, Japan by 17%, and emerging markets by 27%. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Sector Fund Flows Despite the selloff, semiconductors have seen heavy inflows over the past few weeks. That looks more like dip buying than broad risk aversion. Will it last? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI ACWI 12-Month Forward EPS With global stocks priced for perfection and ACWI earnings expectations stretched, it looks prudent to take some risk off the table. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 – Net Debit Balances in NYSE Margin Accountsge The ongoing investor deleveraging wave since June is a near-term headwind for U.S. equities, especially in technology and high-beta momentum stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector Tech outperformance has been unusually strong and unusually long, marking one of the most concentrated, longest-running spells of sector leadership in recent market history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Real Revenue per Employee AI is already lifting productivity in some tasks. Over time, that could mean more sales per employee. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rolling 20-Week Correlations of the S&P 500 to the Usual Havens During this decade’s market shocks, traditional havens have too often failed to hedge, frustrating investors who assumed they would shield portfolios. The takeaway: diversification has to be multidimensional and adaptive. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Broad Money (M2) After shrinking in 2022 and 2023, U.S. M2 growth has continued to expand. That’s good news for nominal spending and asset prices, but it also brings the familiar inflation question back into focus if money growth and velocity both stay hot. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Famous Market Bubbles: Peak-To-Trough Drawdowns Major market bubbles rarely fade quietly. Losses can be severe, and getting back to even can take years, sometimes decades, as leverage unwinds, valuations reset, and confidence takes a hit. Image: Real Investment Advice