S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 After spending two months stuck in a narrow range, the S&P 500 broke decisively higher during earnings season. Investors had been underpositioned for the strength of earnings and were now scrambling to catch up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance After ≥ 12% Over the First 150 Trading Days of the Year The S&P 500 has gained 12% or more in its first 150 trading days on 22 occasions since 1950. While 3-month returns tended to cool after such strong runs, performance usually improved over the following 6 to 12 months. Image:…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The sharp rally has brought the S&P 500 back to the bottom of its nearly four-year uptrend channel. If buyers defend the level, the rally could have further room to run. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without one, the 12‑month forward return has averaged 16.4%. Fear, in this case, has been a poor strategist. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year March’s 9% pullback may already be the year’s deepest. If so, the market has less room for another major selloff. Back-to-back drawdowns of that size are rare, giving bulls a reason to stay optimistic. Image: Carson Investment Research
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI 2026 belonged to global growth, but the wind is turning. Inflation is firming, putting rate hikes back in play. The road into 2027 looks slower and bumpier. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns Most years, the S&P 500 gives up 5% to 10%. With March’s double-digit drop already in the books, the next move lower may be more modest. Back-to-back big drawdowns don’t happen often. Image: Real Investment Advice
New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year The S&P 500 has reached 25 record highs this year. In robust bull markets, new highs usually come in clusters and last longer than the crowd expects, as long as earnings and growth stay on track. Image: Carson Investment Research
Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Revisions Large-cap tech companies have seen upward earnings revisions, but positioning remains only modestly overweight at the 54th percentile. That gap to fundamentals leaves some air for a catch-up trade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar The latest pullback has barely dented CTA appetite for the U.S. dollar, with positioning sitting at the 93rd percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average Daily Equity ETF Flows Equity ETF flows are averaging about $3 billion a day in September, less than half the pace we saw earlier this summer. Recent data have been noisy, but the broader trend is clearly lower. Image: Strategas Asset Management