ROE for Mega-Cap Tech and the Rest of the S&P 500 Mega-cap tech’s return on equity is expected to face headwinds and decline through 2028, while the rest of the S&P 500 sees ROE trending higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Margin Debt as Percentage of M2 (Measure of Leverage) Leverage amplifies gains in rising markets but reveals fragility when sentiment turns. Margin debt relative to the money supply is running hot, echoing levels last seen during the dot-com boom. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity of the market’s response to incoming data and policy signals. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Stock Return on Equity vs. P/E Valuation Profitability gaps go a long way in explaining why equity indices trade at different valuations. Companies that generate higher returns on equity typically earn richer multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Equity Flows U.S. and international equity inflows have remained robust over the past year and have accelerated in recent months, pointing to a supportive environment for further market upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation When oil rises, inflation tends to follow, pushing up energy and transport costs that ripple across the economy. That dynamic often pressures equities, as margins tighten and consumers pull back. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rarely delivered average annual returns. Will 2026 extend the winning streak with another round of outsized gains well above 10%? For now, the odds favor the bulls. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are priced for perfection, with valuations back in territory that has a habit of ending badly. Calling the turn is never easy, but when markets run this hot, even a modest slip in fundamentals can hit hard. Image: Bloomberg
Real Estate Positioning At the 89th percentile, real estate positioning is firmly overweight, leaving the trade at risk if yields climb or rate-hike expectations pick up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck in negative territory. That kind of skepticism can keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has eased from 23 to 21, largely on the back of stronger forward earnings estimates. Valuations look less stretched than they did in the fall, but that does not make equities cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research