Category: Blog

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bulls are as excited as a dog with a new bone, likely because they’ve just realized that the last two weeks of December are a jackpot for U.S. equities! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎

VIX – Volatility Indexes The current low volatility environment is likely temporary, presenting an opportunity to capitalize on inexpensive volatility levels to protect equity positions. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Index Performance by Year of Decade Bulls are smiling again, as years ending in 5 have historically been the most favorable for the S&P 500 index, with gains occurring 92.3% of the time and a median return of 26.3% since 1885. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Performance for All Republican Terms In Republican presidential terms, the S&P 500 tends to perform worse in the second half of the first year than in the first half, as policy impacts and economic realities set in. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio High P/E ratios in U.S. tech stocks reflect both their potentially high valuations and investors’ overly optimistic dreams of future growth. Image: Topdown Charts

DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank

Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to have decelerated significantly in November, reinforcing expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy is effectively controlling inflation. Image: Nomura

U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve For the first time since 2022, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes have surpassed those of three-month bills, indicating a potentially positive outlook for U.S. stocks, particularly when a recession is avoided. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Price Target Morgan Stanley’s bull case scenario predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7,400 by the end of 2025, representing significant gains from current levels. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 2025 Price Target Fundstrat’s Tom Lee forecasts a bullish first half of 2025, with the S&P 500 expected to hit 7,000 by mid-year before falling to 6,600 by year-end, due to potential impacts from tariffs and DOGE on GDP. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Instances S&P 500 Annual Return >=+20% for Two Consecutives Years The S&P 500 rarely experiences back-to-back annual returns of 20% or more, but when it does, the following year tends to see a strong first half and a weaker second half. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC