Valuations – Market Values as a Proportion of World GDP Global equities have tripled their weight since the 1990s, jumping from 75% to above 200% of world GDP—an expansion that screams just how far valuations have run. Honestly, what could go wrong? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Corporate Profits After Tax and U.S. Real GDP In America, corporate profits aren’t just numbers; they’re the oxygen for investment, jobs, and market gains. With such a tight link to the real economy, weaker profits often signal a downshift in momentum. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Various Declines per Year Volatility is part of the market’s DNA; the real skill lies in how investors navigate the bumps to keep compounding. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities Valuations vs. ROE Investors aren’t shy about paying a premium for U.S. stocks. The payoff? Superior returns on equity and earnings growth that few markets can match. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Margin Debt Now above $1 trillion, margin debt stands at just about 1/57th of the total U.S. equity market cap, up 35% from a year ago—still a far cry from the surges seen at past bubble highs. Market tone feels alert, not alarmed. Image: Fidelity Investments
Materials Group Positioning Sitting at the 65th percentile, positioning in materials signals confidence creeping back into the sector—without yet crossing into euphoria. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cumulative Change in Real S&P 500 and Real Profits Earnings remain solid, especially in tech, but the widening gap between the real S&P 500 index and real corporate profit growth suggests investors may be chasing momentum more than fundamentals. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market Capitalization – United States vs. Asia vs. Europe Wall Street has smoked global rivals on roaring earnings, fat margins, and deep capital. But, sky-high prices and overheated expectations could break its stride. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
World Portfolio The world’s portfolio remains tilted toward the U.S.—in both stocks and bonds. Gold holds a modest 6%, while crypto barely cracks 1%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Median P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s median P/E ratio sits at 26.2—a level that leaves stocks looking pricey and raises the odds of thinner returns or a valuation pullback if history is any guide. Image: Ned Davis Research
Fed Funds Rate and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500’s record-breaking rally shows no signs of cooling, with market participants now positioning for another Fed rate cut on October 29 to fuel the next leg higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research