S&P 500 Index Returns in February Since 1950, February has historically been a month of flat returns for U.S. stocks, but this overall neutral performance often masks underlying market volatility. Image: Carson Investment Research
World Technology Earnings The consistent outperformance of the technology sector since 2010 is largely due to its strong profit growth and the disruptive impact of advancements like artificial intelligence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Growth While mega-cap tech companies are likely to retain their market dominance, the expected slowdown in their EPS growth could lead to a more balanced market performance across various sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Top 5 Stocks’ Weight vs. 1-Year Forward Returns While the current high market concentration is a significant feature of today’s market landscape, it doesn’t necessarily predict poor performance in the near term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears hate a strong January, which is widely seen as a bullish sign for stocks. Historically, when the S&P 500 rises in January, it tends to be a reliable predictor of positive returns for the entire year. Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 vs. Forward Earnings Estimates While the outlook for corporate earnings in 2025 remains positive, the elevated market valuations mean that companies will need to deliver on these high expectations to sustain the bull market. Image: Yahoo Finance
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.14%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Performance Cyclical sectors’ strong performance suggests economic optimism, but investors must be cautious about potential overvaluation and risks, especially when buying cyclical stocks late in the economic cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index of 68.28 indicates that active investment managers are maintaining a moderate level of U.S. equity exposure, reflecting a cautious approach to their investment strategies.…
Nominal S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Nominal GDP Growth The rapid acceleration of U.S. corporate earnings growth over the past three decades, which has outpaced the broader U.S. economy, is a key factor behind today’s high market valuations—a trend that may persist. Image: Deutsche Bank
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index The net difference between bulls and bears indicates overall investor sentiment, which saw a sharp reversal last week following the presidential inauguration. Image: Real Investment Advice