Category: Blog

A Hall of Mirrors in Monetary Policy? This chart suggests a feedback loop between bond market pricing and central bank decisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns This chart suggests that M2 money supply to nominal GDP ratio leads S&P 500 returns by one year. Is the S&P 500 vulnerable to a drop, followed by a recovery? Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Productivity: How Productive is an Hour of Work? An hour’s work in Ireland contributes $102.3 to the economy, while in the U.S., this contribution is on average $72.1 Image: Statista

U.S. Recession Dashboard This recession dashboard suggests that the U.S. economy is nowhere near a recession. Image: Credit Suisse

European Equity Market Sentiment Index The chart shows that the European equity market sentiment has deteriorated. Image: Nomura

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Image: Paolo Cardena

Consensus 2019 & 2020 U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020 (as of July 2019). Image: Goldman Sachs

The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve Great charts showing that a flat/inverted yield curve implies weaker U.S. GDP growth, lower equity returns, and higher volatility. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Federal Budget Deficit Since 1948 The federal budget deficit is unusually large compared to the state of the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs

Annual Performance of Gold and the S&P 500 since 1980 One of the advantages of gold is that it is uncorrelated to the U.S. stock market and provides diversification in a portfolio. Image: The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Image: Credit Suisse