Category: Blog

Total U.S. Household Debt Balance and Its Composition Total U.S. household debt increased by $192 billion (1.4%) to $13.86 trillion in Q2 2019. Image: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel

Household Debt as a Proportion of GDP Household debt levels in China are equivalent to those in advanced economies. Image: The Wall Street Journal

Who Has Gained From Globalization? The Asian middle class and the global 1% have gained the most from globalization. Image: Harvard Business Publishing

America’s Mortgage Debt by State The average mortgage debt per capita in the United States is $33.680. Image: howmuch.net

Demographics – Old Age Dependency Ratio The world’s population is ageing and demographics explain low interest rates. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

S&P 500 Performance and Yield Curve Inversions Past yield curve inversions preceded top in SPX by about 11 months. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 Around Past Yield Curve Inversions Another interesting chart from J.P. Morgan showing the median move in the S&P 500 around past yield curve inversions and the market peak. Image: J.P. Morgan

Probability of A Recession Over the Next 12 Months The Bloomberg survey of professional forecasters shows a 35% probability of a recession over the next 12 months Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Past Yield Curve Inversions Preceded Top in Stocks by About 11 Months In the 12 months following an inversion of the yield curve, the S&P 500 return averaged about 10%. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. GDP and S&P 500 This interesting chart puts market corrections and U.S. GDP in perspective.  Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and Fed Insurance Rate Cuts This chart shows that Fed insurance rate cuts can be good news when the U.S. economy slows down. Image: Scotiabank