Category: Blog

U.S. Recession Probability and the U.S. Dollar The chart shows the correlation between the NY Fed probability of U.S. recession and the U.S. dollar. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

Ken Fisher on the Yield Curve In this short video, Ken Fisher explains what the yield curve is and its impact on the market. You may also like other videos by Ken Fisher. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld3D5B8_wAU&list=PL1F15F9796653B69B&index=23&t=0s

Liquidity Premium: Investment Grade vs. High Yield Bonds The chart shows that the premium provided by illiquid IG and HY bonds has been drifting wider. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Number of Small-Cap M&A Deals At 10-Year High The number of small-cap deals is expected to continue to grow, because CEOs are under pressure to increase profits Image: Legg Mason

S&P 500 All-Time High and Inverted Yield Curve The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. It has made new all-time highs 5 of 5 times the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverted. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Correlation Between the U.S. Economy and the World Economy This chart suggests that the U.S. economy has lagged the world economy since the Great recession. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Yield Curve 18 Months Before Presidential Elections 18 months before presidential elections, a flatter yield curve suggests a greater tendency to predict a change away from the incumbent President’s party Image: Deutsche Bank

OECD Composite Leading Indicator Leading economic indicators suggest that the global economy may have bottomed. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Percentage of Yield Curves Inverted Around the World Now, the percentage of yield curves inverted around the world is over 50% Image: Charles Schwab

Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…

U.S. Dollar and Weak Global Growth This spreadsheet shows that Fed policy easing can weaken the U.S. dollar in times of weak global growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research