Leading Economic Indicators (LEI): U.S. vs. Global Leading economic indicators appear to be stabilizing, outside the United States. The central banks’ policy response could have a positive knock-on effect on global growth. Image: Legg Mason
Heat Map of Key Recession Indicators Higher probability of recession than average in red, and lower probability of recession than average in green. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
World – Gross Government Debt as Percentage of GDP A look at gross government debt in 2019. Image: IMF
World Semiconductor Sales Lead Emerging Markets This chart suggests that world semiconductor sales lead the MSCI emerging markets index by 3 months. This is very interesting before investing in emerging market equities. Country weights of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: 33% China, 13.02% Korea, 11.35% Taiwan. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Economic Impacts of the Trade War (Global GDP) This chart shows that the expected economic impacts of the trade war should peak in 2021. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – Price vs. Dividends What happens to dividends when there’s a market collapse? This interesting chart shows that dividends don’t fall as much as stocks. Image: A Wealth of Common Sense
Earnings Growth and the Fed Cycle Analysts remain optimistic on 2020. This chart shows the expected earnings growth over the next 12 months. Image: Fidelity Investments
China Real GDP Growth Projection Real GDP growth in China is expected to continue to decline significantly in the coming years, with consumption becoming the main driver of growth. You may also like “Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth.” Image: KKR & Co.
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Image: Nautilus Research
Median Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months The risk of recession has increased in many countries around the world. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Active vs. Passive Fund Net Flows Active mutual funds exhibit persistent outflows, while inflows into index-tracking U.S. mutual funds and ETFs continue to rise. Image: Bloomberg