Category: Blog

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS

Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now. Image: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.

Trump Tweets About the Fed The last trade escalation was also preceded by a flurry tweets from President Trump attacking the Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Produces Highest Sharpe Ratio in Decades Since 1990, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note has produced the largest sharpe ratio. Is it the beginning of the end like past events? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model The NY Fed recession probability model could suggest an increase in the percentage of U.S. states with rising unemployment over the next 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Equity Volatility vs. Equity Allocation As equity volatility rises (inverted on the chart), equity allocations come down. You may alos like “The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years.” Picture Source: Deutsche Bank

Cumulative Mutual Fund + ETF Flows by Bull Market Cycle: Bonds vs. Equities Flows Is this the most hated bull market in history? Well, investors continue buying bonds. Image: ICI Mutual & ETF Flow

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

GDP Weighted Global Central Bank Policy Rate vs. Global PMI This chart suggests that global policy rates are too tight compared to global PMI in contraction mode. Image: Pervalle Global

Largest 1-Day Drops for the S&P 500 per Year Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell by almost 3%. The average largest 1-day drop per year is -4.04% since 1928. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Earnings Expectations Despite the earnings squeeze, the Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the stock market. Image: Bianco Research