Category: Blog

U.S. Industrial Production YoY by Segment since 2013 Another excellent chart showing the U.S. industrial production by segment. Image: Pervalle Global

Just a Normal Day… “Just a normal day at the nation’s most important financial institution…” Image: Kevin “Kal” Kallaugher

MOVE, VIX and Rising Economic Uncertainty Markets are oddly calm despite rising economic uncertainty. Image: Financial Times

10-Year German Bund Yield and German Manufacturing PMI The 10-year German Bund yield could go positive again as recession fears dissipate. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

European Equities Lead Bund Yields by 6 Months Because European equities tend to lead bund yields by 6 months, bund yields should turn higher. Image: Reuters

Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield This chart shows the correlation between gold and 2-year treasury yield (inverse). Gold rises on slowing global growth and short-term treasury yield inverse. Image: Jeroen Blokland

CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg

Initial Fed Rate Cuts and Resulting Forward Market Returns This spreadsheet also shows that the S&P 500 has performed well on average, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Eurozone Inflation and Brent Oil Prices This interesting chart shows the direct effect of brent oil prices (YoY % change) on euro area inflation. Image: Jeroen Blokland

China 10-Year Bond Yield Leads US 10-Year Bond Yield This interesting chart shows that China 10-year bond yield tends to lead the U.S. 10-year bond yield by two months. Image: Jeroen Blokland