Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign of peaking. So, it suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “U.S. Heavy…
Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
Probability of a Fed Cut in 2019 The market is pricing 87% probability of a Fed cut in September 2019.
Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth
American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
2019 Is Tracking Similar to Prior Waterfall Declines Where PMI was above 50 at end of 19% decline in 60 days. So, it suggests 3,100 for the S&P 500 by year end. Image: Fundstrat
S&P 500 Up at Least +4.5% from Monday Close through Friday Close Last week, the S&P500 was up at least +4.5% from Monday’s close through Friday’s close. History shows it is not bullish. Image: OddStats
The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy US-China trade conflict, US corporate debt burden, and emerging-markets crisis are the main global risks according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Image: World Economic Forum
Fear Of Recessions? S&P 500 Bull and Bear Markets since 1946 A long-term investor should put downturns in perspective. Image: Charles Schwab
Hedge Fund Industry Outperformance – Negative over Past Decade The chart below shows how it’s hard to beat the market over time. Image: Greenline Partners LLC
BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.” Image: S&P Global Fixed Income Research