105 Consecutive Months of Job Growth It is the 105th consecutive month of job growth. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, but is still at historically low levels. Even if there are signs that the U.S. job market is slowing, it is still strong for the time being. Image: Leonard Kiefer
Manufacturing Payrolls vs. ISM PMI Manufacturing payrolls are usually quite volatile, but this interesting chart could suggest a rebound in the ISM PMI. Let’s wait for confirmation in the second half of the year. Image: Hayek and Keynes
Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Image: Reuters
The Market Has Correctly Called Each Fed Rate Decision since 2010 And since 1994, seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time. You may also like “The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting.” Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession. The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…
U.S. High Yield Credit spreads are fine. Could the market go wrong by predicting significant interest rate cuts? Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Equity Index since 1928 This chart puts into perspective the current record levels of the S&P 500. You may also like “The Stock Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry.” Image: John Kemp
U.S. Equity Market Performance since 1914 Excellent comparison between real (adjusted for inflation) and nominal returns on U.S. equities. Image: Saxo Bank
Global Earnings since 2006 This chart shows global earnings since 2006 (USA, Emerging Markets, Japan and Europe). As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” This chart below illustrates it well since 2006. You may also like “Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run.” Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Corporate Leverage in the U.S. U.S. corporate debt is high. This chart shows that U.S. corporate leverage is close to its previous peak on a net debt to EBITDA. You may also like “U.S. Leveraged Loan Index Rating Breakdown: 2008 vs. 2019.” Image: Credit Suisse Research