U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227(R² = 0.9787) You may also like “30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield.” Image: Leonard Kiefer
Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason
Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread This interesting chart shows the Google trends interest for the “yield curve” compared to the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread. If history helps us predict the future, the next market peak could be in 2021 or later, maybe. Image: Ken Fisher
What Happens When the S&P 500 is Up 15% at Mid-Year? History tells us that the rest of the year is generally quite good. Image: LPL Research
S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles The S&P 500 did rather well after easing cycles began, especially during Fed insurance cuts. You may also like “Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts.” Image: Fidelity Investments
Concern about the Trade War 58% of American firms reported negative impacts from the trade war, versus 31% of non-American firms. Ouch! Image: American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore
S&P 500 and Recession Probability Great chart showing twelve Fed easing cycles since the 1950s, including the recession probability and the average return of the S&P 500 Index. Image: Fidelity Investments
Major Crypto Returns Since Bitcoin’s Low Since December 14, 2018 low, other major cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin. Image: Bianco Research
Growth Has Outperformed Value Since 2015 Is is time for value stocks to shine? Actually, tech stocks contribute to widening the gap between growth and value. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
The World Has $13 Trillion of Debt With Negative Yields But there are still positive-yield bonds. Image: The Wall Street Journal