Category: Blog

S&P 500 Valuation Above Historical Average The S&P 500 is overvalued on 17 of 20 valuation metrics. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Image: Bank of America

S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Cass Freight Shipments Index vs. U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in Q2 2019. The Cass Freight Index is a measure of monthly North American freight activity. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.”…

S&P 500 Gains Outside Regular Trading Hours The S&P 500 loves the night, after the market closes. Since 1993, the real profits have come outside regular trading hours. Image: The New York Times, Bespoke Investment Group

Global Debt Nears Record Global debt hits $246 trillion (or 320% of GDP) and is just $2 trillion shy of all-time high. You may also like “Total Debt by Sector for Developed & Emerging Economies.” Image: International Monetary Fund

S&P 500 Around the End of Fed Tightening As the chart shows, the S&P 500 has performed well on average, around the end of Fed tightening. You may also like “S&P 500 Performance Around Previous Fed Cuts.” Image: Morphic Asset Management Pty Ltd

Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. You may also like “How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?“ Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Total Outlays (Spending) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that the U.S. federal government spends. Image: Bianco Research

U.S. Total Receipts (Taxes) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that is collected by the U.S. federal government through taxes. Image: Bianco Research

S&P 500 and Hedge Fund Exposure While the S&P 500 is at all-time high, hedge funds increase their exposure to equities (last = 0.52). Image: Sentimentrader

S&P 500 vs. Percentage of Sectors at All-Time Highs Currently, only three sectors are at all-time highs, while 60% of the yield curve is inverted. Image: Crescat Capital LLC