We Are Still in a Secular Bull Market According to Fundstrat This great chart shows that we are still in a secular bull market. 2019 could be a transition year to a 4-year cycle high. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Leveraged Loan Index Rating Breakdown: 2008 vs. 2019 Since 2008, this chart shows that U.S. leveraged loans are getting lower ratings. Any drop in the credit ratings could also amplify the next recession. Image: Standard & Poor’s Leveraged Commentary & Data, UBS
Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World Global ex-US manufacturing PMI is below 50 (contraction). We will see if the United States can go it alone in the coming months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011“ Image: Topdown Charts
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Times When Precious Metals Stocks Surged While Oil Plunged This chart shows that precious metals stocks surged while oil plunged, only three other times in recent history. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…
S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield since 2009 This chart shows the gap between S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10-year Treasury yield since 2009. Keep in mind that investing is not just a competition between stocks and bonds. But for the first time since 2017, the dividend yield on US stocks is equal…
Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down? The chart below shows that the U.S. economy is slowing down. The U.S.-China trade war and slower global growth are not helping. But as long as there is no recession, slowing down is fine.
What Does Trump’s Economic Plan Look Like? A basic formula explains Trump’s economic policies to “Make America Great Again.” Image: Hayek and Keynes
Estimated Number of Hedge Funds Launched or Closed since 2008 Can hedge funds deliver higher returns than passive investing? Not really. But many investors still think they can achieve higher returns with active trading than with passive investing. The chart below shows that it is really hard to outperform the market. As Warren Buffett said,…
Mutual Fund Flows – Asset Allocation Funds since 2000 Dynamic/flexible and balanced funds saw significant outflows since 2018. It is obvious that many investors don’t have a long-term view. Image: Topdown Charts