Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin Orange lines mark days when markets priced in a rate cut. In recent history, it occurs between 33 and 281 business days before fed cut. The average is 120 business days. So, the Fed’s rate cut could take place in September 2019. You may also…
Money-Market Funds Flows Over the last 4 weeks, money-market funds have seen a significant inflow of nearly $95 billion. That’s much more larger than in previous years. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
US Yield Curve Inversions since 1966 Currently, investors are concerned about yield curve inversions, because they have been a indicator of a coming recession. But not all inversions are the same. If the yield curve inversion is due to 10-year falling, then it is a “risk-off” trade, and not an economic cycle turn. This great chart…
The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good In recent history, this chart suggests that poor ability of U.S. companies to service their debt leads to recession. That’s not the case today. This indicator suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
The Poorest and Wealthiest County in Every U.S. State This graphic shows that there is wide disparity between rich and poor counties. Picture Source: Visual Capitalist
Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI rose 2.7% year-over-year and suggests there is no imminent recession on the horizon. Image: LPL Research
Is the U.S. Expansion Waning? Despite strong US GDP growth in April 2019, this chart shows that U.S. growth is not bouncing back in this late business cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Mean Probability That U.S. Stock Prices Will Be Higher One Year From Now – Survey of Consumer Expectations – The mean probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher one year from now is 41.03% as of April 2019. Image: New York Fed Survey of Consumer
Number of Stocks Splits by S&P 500 Companies Since 1990 Since 1990, the number of stock splits by S&P 500 companies has virtually disappeared. Image: The Wall Street Journal
China’s Belt and Road Initiative The Belt and Road Initiative is a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government. This chart shows the infrastructure projects. Image: Reuters
FED, ECB & BoJ Balance Sheets as Percent of GDP (BoJ leading 10 years) Is this chart the “Japanification” of the world? Image: In Gold We Trust-Report