Global Equity Fund Flows This great chart from Deutsche Bank shows that equity outflows over the last 6 months are now the largest on record. In 2011 and 2016, it was similar and equities rose significantly. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Price vs. U.S. Dollar Currently, when the U.S. dollar is weaker, the price of gold is higher, as shown in this nice chart below. But it’s not always the case. Image: ANZ Research
Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.26% (traders are pricing in more than four full cuts). You may also like “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin.”
The S&P 500’s Drawdown and The Target Fed Funds Rate Fed rate cuts have generally been associated with recessions and drawdowns. Image: Bianco Research
Change in the Summary of Economic Projections This chart shows the change in the summary of economic projections from March to June 2019. Image: Evercore ISI
Years Without a 20% Gain for the S&P 500 Index This great chart shows the number of years without a 20% gain since 1950. Could the S&P 500 gain 20% this year? Image: LPL Research
Most Important Variables Explaining the S&P 500’s YoY Return Today, the two most important variables explaining the S&P 500’s YoY return: FOMC rate change and U.S. hard economic data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Global Economy Is Late Cycle This chart shows that a record number of fund managers think the global economy is late cycle. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index The Cass Freight Index (white bar chart) is a measure of monthly North American freight activity. It suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index (green line) could go lower if the U.S. economic slowdown persists. Image: Greg S.
U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman
Debt and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments