Category: Blog

Probability of a Fed Cut in 2019 The market is pricing 87% probability of a Fed cut in September 2019.

Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth

American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

2019 Is Tracking Similar to Prior Waterfall Declines Where PMI was above 50 at end of 19% decline in 60 days. So, it suggests 3,100 for the S&P 500 by year end. Image: Fundstrat

S&P 500 Up at Least +4.5% from Monday Close through Friday Close Last week, the S&P500 was up at least +4.5% from Monday’s close through Friday’s close. History shows it is not bullish. Image: OddStats

The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy US-China trade conflict, US corporate debt burden, and emerging-markets crisis are the main global risks according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Image: World Economic Forum

Fear Of Recessions? S&P 500 Bull and Bear Markets since 1946 A long-term investor should put downturns in perspective. Image: Charles Schwab

Hedge Fund Industry Outperformance – Negative over Past Decade The chart below shows how it’s hard to beat the market over time. Image: Greenline Partners LLC

BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.”  Image: S&P Global Fixed Income Research

Market Smell A Recession As Yield Curve Inverts Quant models and yield curve inversion smell of recession rather than mid-cycle Fed eases. Image: J.P. Morgan

WTI Price and Brent Price vs. Oil Inventory Oil inventories suggest that the price of oil is currently fairly priced. Image: Pictet Wealth Management