Category: Blog

S&P 500 Futures – Massive Pre-market Fear Since 1982 Since 1982, there have been two time periods of this massive pre-market fear: in 2002 and 2008, during the bear market. Image: Sentimentrader

U.S. Credit Card Charge-Off Rates Since 2007 This chart shows that small banks accept high credit risks, while large banks reject high credit risks. You may also like “Why the US Banking System Is Divided in Two Groups?“

Germany: GDP Growth Composition Since 2013 In 2019Q1, there is a slight rebound in the German economy but the outlook remains gloomy. Image: Oxford Economics

International Liquidity by Country – Total Reserves Excluding Gold, U.S. Dollars USA holds $115 billion and China holds over $3 trillion in reserves. Image: howmuch.net

U.S. Stock Market Annualized Returns since 1872 You may notice as the timeframes get longer, the frequency of losses rapidly decreases. During 1872 to 2018, there were no 20-year rolling periods with stock market losses. Image: Visual Capitalism

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1896 If you listen to the news, there is always a good reason not to be invested in the stock market. You may also like “The Stock Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry.” Image: virtueofselfishinvesting.com   Click the Image to Enlarge  

What Happens If the S&P 500 Index Is Green the First Four Months since 1950? Well, if history helps us to predict the future, the rest of year is higher 14 out of 15 times. The median pullback is -9.4%. Image: LPL Research

Commodity Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1937 The chart shows that commodity stock prices have never been more depressed relative to the stock market. This Commodity Stock Index aligns with S&P North American Natural Resource Stock Index. Image: Goehring & Rozencwajg

The Gold to Oil Ratio since 2018 When the gold to oil ratio approaches 30x, oil is undervalued. When the gold to oil ratio approaches 10x, gold is undervalued. Today, the gold-oil ratio is below 20x. So, neither oil nor gold is undervalued nor overvalued relative to each other. Image: Goehring & Rozencwajg

VIX & Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This chart also shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most interesting spreads to watch. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. Image:…

10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…