Lumber Prices Are a Great Leading Indicator of Future Earnings This chart suggests that lumber prices give a good forecast of where the stock market is going. When lumber prices fall over a 12-month period, then EPS follows 6 months later. Although there is no immediate recession on the horizon, a market downturn is possible. Image:…
US Fund Flows 2013-2019 (All Stocks, All Bonds, Mutal Funds and ETFs) Once again, it looks like investors see a recession on the horizon by selling equities and buying bonds. See “The Stock Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry” Image: Topdown Charts
Investor Movement Index vs. S&P 500 The Investor Movement Index indicates the sentiment of TD Ameritrade retail investors. Thus, retail investors are net buyers of equities when the stock market is expensive, and they are net sellers of equities when the stock market is cheap. As usual, retail investors react to equity price movements. They buy and sell…
The Stock Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry There is always a good reason not to invest in the stock market, but you may miss a significant portion of your capital growth. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high. And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur…
Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator? When the percentage of Small Businesses Planning to Hire, falls from a high level to less than 10%, then the risk of a recession remains high. That’s not the case today, there is no recession coming. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
Stock Buybacks Topped Capital Expenditures for the First Time since 2008 Thanks to corporate tax cuts, stock buybacks hit an all-time high and topped capital expenditures for the first time since 2008. As a reminder, 2008 was the start of the global financial crisis.
Is Bitcoin on Fire Again? Bitcoin +102% YTD vs. S&P 500 YTD performance of 12.98%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Worst Day of the Year for S&P 500 since 1950 The average worst day of the year for S&P 500 is 3.5% since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!
Proportion of U.S. Junk Bonds Maturing Within Four Years A third of the $1.2 trillion U.S. junk bonds matures in the next four years. This proportion is highest in decades. Image: Bloomberg