How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…
S&P 500 Largest Pullbacks in the First Five Months of Each Year Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has performed the first five months of the year without a decline of at least a 2.5% pullback only once in 1995. Is a pullback for U.S. stocks approaching? Image: J.P. Morgan See S&P 500 Intra-Year…
Commercial and Industrial Loans Continue to Accelerate in the U.S. That’s a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. banks wouldn’t be lending if they were concerned about the economic situation. Past three recessions saw bank loans negative year over year.
Ideal Portfolio – Stocks as Percent of Retirement Portfolio by Age For the ideal portfolio, GMO recommends the following stocks as percent of retirement portfolio by age. Source: GMO LLC
One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…
How the Composition of Wealth Changes from the Middle Class to The Ultra Rich? From the middle class to the ultra rich, the composition of household wealth changes dramatically. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket.” Image: Visual Capitalist
What Does M1 Money Supply Growth Tell Us About the Next Recession? M1 is the money supply that includes types of money commonly used for payment, basically currency outside banks and checking account balances. This is not the perfect recession indicator, but in recent history, it turns negative at least one year before a recession.
Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…
Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments? Keep in mind that most IPOs lose money for investors after 5 years. Images: CNBC, Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Europe’s Stocks Are Really Unloved Europe’s benchmark has lagged other major ones in recent years. But on the positive side: the valuation is low, Europe will not disintegrate, the rotation from bonds to equities has not yet begun, and there is a fairly good growth in 2019. Image: Bloomberg
Which Country Has the Highest Density of Robot Workers? South Korea had 710 installed industrial robots per 10,000 employees in the manufacturing industry in 2017. When robots replace manual labor, the productivity and the quality of products increase dramatically. Robots increase labor productivity levels and won’t take all the jobs. Image: Statista