Why Are Dividends and Buybacks Hitting Record Highs? Corporate stock buybacks and dividends are booming, thanks to the tax cuts and low interest rates.Unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary debt and a rise of corporate debt-to-GDP since the Great Recession.
Warren Buffett Talks Investment Strategy and Mastering the Market “Well, I look at a lot of figures just in connection with our businesses. I like to get numbers. So I’m getting reports in weekly in some businesses, but that doesn’t tell me what the economy’s going to six months from now or three months from…
Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says? Well, in 2018, China was selling its US Treasury securities. In 2019, it’s just the opposite. Not bad! Why? It is not obvious, but China could use the dollars elsewhere, in Middle East countries for oil supplies, instead of buying US Treasury securities. Image: Ryan Detrick,…
What An Average Stock Market Correction Looks Like? Stock market corrections are normal. On average, there is one correction per year, during 71.6 days and a decline in stocks of about 15.6% Image: Visual Capitalist
Investing Like Sheep (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Future Fears “People want to be told what to think. I don’t! People need to listen with the mind as well as their ears, and not just repeat what they heard.” – Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLf9tGq2Vv4
Record Valuation Dispersion 1951-2017 Today, there’s an extreme valuation divergence. The crowd invests in the most expensive part of the market. And the Value vs. Growth differential has never been so extreme, even during the Great Depression and the Dotcom bubble. Source: Sound Shore Management
Sell in May and Go Away? Just keep in mind that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were positive in May. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend and reduces productivity.This makes it difficult to see the Fed funds rate exceed the…
Has Apple’s Intrinsic Value Really Changed Since December Lows? Not really! but Apple is up nearly 50% since the December lows. Is there a method to the market’s madness? Yes, see our advanced stock market forecasting models. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Why the US Banking System Is Divided in Two Groups? The delinquency rate on credit-card loans at all commercial banks is very low, whereas the delinquency rate on credit-card loans is high only at commercial banks other than the 100 largest banks. The US banking system is divided in two groups: small banks accept high…
Where Does Inflation Come From? Mainly inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Over the long term, Nominal GDP = Money Supply x Velocity of Money = Inflation + Real Economic Growth “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” –Milton Friedman. You…