The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High, After 6 Months Without A Record High. So, What Now? Can history help us to predict the future? Here’s a bullish case: the S&P 500 has been higher 17 out of 18 times a year later, since 1954. Source: LPL Research
Is the Fed Funds Rate Lower Today than in Previous Business Cycles? Yes! and unfortunately, artificially low interest rates are associated with unnecessary debt, lower productivity and zombie firms in this late-cycle expansion. Image: Blackrock
What Recession? The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High …but many of the world’s major indexes are still a long way from their all-time closing highs. Image: Bloomberg
Why Potential GDP Has Been Cut in Half Since the 1950’s? The main reason is a lower productivity than previous business cycles, due to: – lower population growth – the service sector is growing faster than the industry sector – lower quality jobs in the service sector have a lower productivity than in the industrial…
Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP? Because monetary and fiscal policies continue to support growth in the USA. So, real GDP could remain close to potential GDP. It also suggests a recession is probably not imminent.
What Are the Advantages of a Geographically Diversified Portfolio? A geographically diversified portfolio may minimize drawdowns and the amount earned from compounding may grow faster over time. Image: Bridgewater Associates, LP
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money…” – Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” — Warren Buffett
Why the Current Business Cycle Can Continue? Even if we are in a late business cycle, real Fed funds rate is near zero, the Fed remains “patient” at the moment and has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. The 30-Year Treasury Rate minus 10-Year Treasury Rate spread has a normal upward…
No Recession, But a Growth Slowdown Is Coming, JPM’s Kelly Says As David Kelly (chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management) points out, a slowdown is not a recession and the current expansion could last for a few more years.
Warren Buffett Gives Advice On Success And Life’s Big Decisions “You want to associate with people that are better than you are… the partner in life is the most important one.”
Does Surging Oil Prices Cause Recession? Historically, a rise oil prices can cause recession because high inflation tends to lead to higher interest rates. But nowadays, oil shale production in the US limits the rise in oil prices and makes it possible to avoid a future crisis like the one in 2008.