Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession

The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 20%, which is slightly higher than the long-term average.

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession