Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession

Concerns about a recession are like those pesky weeds in your garden: they never really go away, but at least the market thinks it’s finally time to trim them back—U.S. recession risk is at its lowest in two years!

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession