Target Probabilities at the Fed’s July 31 Meeting Today, traders see a 47.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut and a 52.4% probability of a 50-bps rate cut at the Fed’s July 31 meeting. Image: CME Group
Growth/Value Stock Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession After first Fed rate cut and no recession within the next 12 months, growth stocks should outperform value stocks. Image: LPL Research
S&P 500 Returns After Rate Cuts Near Highs Since 1980, the Fed has cut rates 17 times (S&P 500 within 2% of new highs). One year later, the S&P 500 was still higher. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Large-Cap Growth/Value Equity Series Ratio Around First Rate Cut: Recession vs. No Recession The chart suggests no recession, when growth stocks outperform value stocks, around first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Rate Interesting chart showing that the U.S. 10-year treasury yield usually does not bottom until the Fed has finished cutting rates. Image: Deutsche Bank
The GS Financial Conditions Index and The Target Fed Funds Rate The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is not at its lowest level and the current levels are quite similar than previous first rate cuts. Image: Bianco Research
The Market Consistently Underestimates the Fed Usually, the Fed decides when to raise rates and the market decides when to cut rates. But, this interesting chart shows that the market consistently underestimates the Fed. You may also like “The Market is Almost Wrong about What the Fed Will Do.” Image: Real Investment Advice
Before the Next FOMC Meeting, the Fed Funds Market Is Pretty Accurate Probability of a Fed rate cut on July 31, 2019: 100% (Fed funds market expectation). Image: Bianco Research
Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.26% (traders are pricing in more than four full cuts). You may also like “Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin.”
The S&P 500’s Drawdown and The Target Fed Funds Rate Fed rate cuts have generally been associated with recessions and drawdowns. Image: Bianco Research
The Market is Almost Wrong about What the Fed Will Do Actually, the Fed decides when to raise rates. But the market decides when to cut rates: “Markets have accurately priced in cuts before easing cycles begin.” Keep in mind that rate cut expectations are highly predictive six months in advance. You may also like “Fed Policy…