Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Gloomy confidence expectations have historically not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy, which can potentially lead to reduced spending and investment. Image: The Daily Shot
GDP Consensus Forecasts Optimistic U.S. GDP forecasts suggest that there is confidence in the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Annualized Return on Friday An increase in the S&P 500 on Friday is often interpreted as a positive sign indicating a high level of confidence to hold over the weekend. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 U.S. small business confidence is deteriorating, which does not bode well for U.S. small-caps, but relative valuations remain attractive. Image: BCA Research
Seasonality – Average Monthly Total Return for the S&P 500 Index and Statistical Significance Over the past 20 years, July has been positive on average with a high confidence level. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Gold’s Last Bull Market and Gold/S&P 500 Correlation During the GFC, the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 was positive. Deutsche Bank suggests that gold could move higher, as investor confidence remains subdued. Image: Deutsche Bank
In Fed We Trust Confidence in Fed chair has reached a 15-year high. Image: Bloomberg
Economy – Where People Are Losing Faith in Capitalism? Some countries appear to have more confidence in capitalism than others. Image: Statista
Ranking Developed Economies by Key Growth Metrics Currently, the United States is ranked numer one in real GDP, core CPI and consumer confidence. Image: Arbor Research & Trading
University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital